Why Bitcoin’s Current Downtrend Is the Worst Since 2018

The cryptocurrency market is currently witnessing a historic period of turbulence as Bitcoin struggles to find its footing in early 2026.

For the first time since the grueling bear market of 2018, Bitcoin is on track to post its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

This rare “red run” has left the digital asset down more than 25% year to date, marking the worst 50-day start to a year in the history of the protocol.

As February 2026 comes to a close, the market sentiment remains heavily weighed down by a combination of macroeconomic pressures and a lack of a clear narrative.

While traditional equities have shown some resilience, Bitcoin has sharply underperformed, leading many to question if the “digital gold” thesis is currently on hiatus.

Analysts suggest that this isn't just a simple dip, but a structural repricing within a global regime shift.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is facing its first five-month losing streak since 2018, with prices plunging nearly 20% in February 2026 alone.

• Heavy institutional pressure is evident through $3,800,000,000 in ETF outflows over the past five weeks, signaling a rotation away from risk assets.

• The current 52% drawdown from recent highs has led to the lowest weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading in Bitcoin’s history.

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Analyzing the BTC Five Month Slide and ETF Outflows

The current Bitcoin price decline is deeply rooted in a massive shift in institutional behavior. Over the past five weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows totaling a staggering $3,800,000,000.

This exodus of capital indicates that the “institutional wall of money” which characterized the previous bull run is now retreating as global uncertainties rise.

Escalating tariff tensions and a Federal Reserve that refuses to signal rate cuts have created a “squeeze” that Bitcoin has been unable to escape.

Furthermore, the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional safe havens has diverged significantly.

While gold has climbed roughly 48% since September, Bitcoin has fallen about 41% during that same window.

This divergence suggests that investors are treating BTC as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a sovereign hedge.

The instability is further highlighted by the 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation, which swung wildly from -0.68 to +0.72 in a matter of weeks, indicating a market that is struggling to find a consistent price anchor.

Factors Driving the Slump

• Geopolitical Tensions: Rising global conflicts have strengthened the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices, which typically tightens financial conditions and weighs on riskier assets.

• Macroeconomic Pressure: The absence of Federal Reserve rate cuts has kept the cost of capital high, making speculative assets less attractive to large-scale investors.

• ETF Withdrawal: The $3,800,000,000 in outflows represents a significant loss of “buying power” that previously supported the $70,000 price levels.

Read Also: BTC Correction Deepens: Rebound Fails, Market Panic Grows

BTC Price Analysis: Comparisons to the 2018 Bear Market

Drawing parallels to 2018 is inevitable, as that was the last time the market saw such a persistent monthly losing streak.

However, some experts argue that the 2026 slump is unique because it is happening within a “structural regime shift.”

In 2018, the market was cooling off from an ICO-driven retail bubble; today, the market is repricing risk in an era of elevated geopolitical and inflationary uncertainty.

The current drawdown of 52% from the October highs is significant, yet it remains far from the 80% declines seen in previous true bear cycles.

Technically, the indicators are flashing historical extremes. The weekly RSI has fallen to its lowest point ever, a signal that usually suggests an asset is deeply oversold.

Despite this, analysts like Jonatan Randin warn that we could realistically be only halfway through the correction if historical patterns hold.

In past downturns, similar “bottoming” signals were often followed by another 30% to 40% drop before a definitive floor was established.

The key support levels to watch now sit at $60,000, with the 200-week moving average providing a safety net near $58,500.

Key Resistance Zones

Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $68,000 to $72,000 zone, the monthly losing streak narrative is expected to grind on rather than break cleanly.

Support Foundations

• $64,000: The current psychological level where Bitcoin is attempting to consolidate after the 20% February drop.

• $60,000: Identified as the primary near-term support that must hold to prevent a slide toward $50,000.

• $58,500: The 200-week moving average, which historically serves as a "line in the sand" for long-term bull trends.

Read Also: What Is Crypto Burger (CRYPTOBURG)? Full Overview & Ecosystem Guide

Bitcoin Market Sentiment and the Path to Reversal

While the “red run” looks grim on paper, there is a quieter story happening under the surface.

Since late December, “accumulator addresses” have absorbed approximately 372,000 BTC.

This suggests that while ETFs are selling, long-term “whales” are using the 52% discount to stack sats.

Mati Greenspan notes that when market sentiment becomes this uniformly negative while long-term fundamentals remain intact, reversals tend to be sharp and aggressive.

The current “narrative vacuum” is Bitcoin’s biggest hurdle. Without a new catalyst, like a spot of regulatory clarity or a sudden pivot from the Fed, the market is left to trade on pure liquidity flows.

However, the structural story of Bitcoin as a neutral alternative to debt-based fiat systems has not changed since 2009.

If equities continue to be treated as cyclical growth while Bitcoin begins to trade as a sovereign hedge again, this current divergence could actually be structurally bullish for the next decade.

Signs of a Potential Bottom

• Extreme Negative Sentiment: When the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative returns to mainstream media, it often marks the exhaustion of sellers.

• Whale Accumulation: The 372,000 BTC absorbed by long-term holders shows that smart money is still betting on the recovery.

• Historical RSI Lows: The record-low RSI suggests that the “selling pressure” may finally be reaching a point of diminishing returns.

Read Also: Lows Don’t Mean Buy: Reasons BTC & ETH Buyers Are Staying on the Sidelines

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s performance in early 2026 has been a humbling reminder of the market’s inherent volatility.

The five-month losing streak, the worst since 2018, highlights a difficult period of transition for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Between the $3,800,000,000 in ETF outflows and the 52% drawdown from recent peaks, the technicals and fundamentals are being tested like never before.

However, the continued accumulation by long-term holders and the historical lows in momentum indicators suggest that the current slump might eventually serve as the foundation for the next major cycle.

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FAQ

Why is this considered the worst losing streak since 2018?

Bitcoin is currently on track to close its fifth consecutive red month in February 2026. This is the longest run of monthly losses since the 2018-2019 bear market.

What are “ETF outflows” and why do they matter?

ETF outflows occur when institutional investors sell their shares in Bitcoin ETFs, forcing the fund to sell the underlying BTC. The $3,800,000,000 in outflows has removed significant liquidity from the market.

Has Bitcoin ever had back-to-back red months in January and February?

No, 2026 marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that it has recorded consecutive declines in both January and February.

What does the “record low weekly RSI” mean?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the speed and change of price movements. A record low suggests that Bitcoin has never been this “oversold” on a weekly timeframe, which can sometimes precede a price reversal.

Is the 52% drawdown typical for Bitcoin?

While a 52% drop feels extreme, Bitcoin has historically seen drawdowns of 80% or more during major bear markets. Some analysts believe this means the current correction could still have further to go.

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