Will Bitcoin Be Bullish Again? Analyzing the Nearest FOMC

Bitcoin has been moving sideways near $115,000 as bulls and bears jockey for dominance. The crypto market is calm but cautious, with traders eyeing support levels around $112,000.

Short-term holders are selling at a loss for the first time since January, signaling potential shifts in momentum.

With the upcoming FOMC minutes release this week, investors are waiting for guidance on Fed policy, as Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance could influence BTC sentiment.

Market watchers are weighing whether current profit-taking is a temporary pause or a precursor to deeper correction.

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Key Takeaways

1. Short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss, suggesting profit-taking and market consolidation.

2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, reflecting institutional caution.

3. FOMC minutes release could set BTC price direction, with interest in potential Fed rate cuts.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Sell at a Loss

CryptoQuant data indicates short-term holders, or STHs, are again selling BTC at a loss. The STH-SOPR metric, which measures profit or loss realized by short-term investors, has slipped below 1. This is a key signal seen last in January when Bitcoin faced its deepest correction of the cycle.

Short-term selling can indicate two scenarios. First, profit-taking may temporarily weaken upward momentum as traders lock in gains.

Second, it may “flush out weak hands,” clearing the market for stronger bullish momentum. Historically, similar sell-offs were followed by renewed growth, as remaining investors hold with confidence.

Observations from the Data

1. 37.8% spike in holders selling at a loss over the past five days.

2. Largest spike in profit-taking YTD as holders adjust positions.

3. Coincides with BTC hovering around all-time highs above $115K.

For traders, this period of STH selling is a reminder that short-term volatility is natural, and it can often precede a resumption of upward trends if underlying fundamentals remain strong.

Read Also: Bitcoin Nears $120K on ETF Inflows and Ethereum Rally

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Market Sentiment

Institutional sentiment appears cautious as spot Bitcoin ETFs report significant outflows. On Monday, total outflows reached $121.7 million, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF seeing $68.7 million and Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF losing $65.7 million.

In contrast, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF experienced a small inflow of $12.7 million, showing that some investors still see value.

These movements suggest institutions are actively managing exposure ahead of key economic events.

While retail traders may focus on price action, ETF outflows highlight a broader risk-averse stance in traditional financial circles.

The combination of STH selling and ETF outflows creates short-term pressure but may not indicate a long-term bearish trend.

Key Points to Watch

1. Outflows may continue if BTC breaks support levels, amplifying short-term volatility.

2. Coinbase Premium remains positive, showing retail buying interest despite institutional caution.

3. Profit-taking spikes almost 5.4% in BTC holdings, signaling active market rotation.

Investors should observe these patterns while maintaining a long-term perspective. Short-term fluctuations provide opportunities for strategic entries, particularly on reliable platforms.

Read Also: Bitcoin Steady: Why LTHs Hold at $120K Breakout

FOMC Minutes Release and Bitcoin Price Outlook

The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes are the next significant catalyst for Bitcoin. Traders are closely monitoring potential guidance on interest rates and Fed policy.

Recent inflation data, including a 0.9% jump in US PPI in July, has adjusted market expectations.

CME FedWatch tools suggest an 83% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in September, down from earlier predictions of multiple cuts.

Analysts like Rekt Capital anticipate a potential shallow BTC price correction, possibly similar to historical 2017 and 2021 dips but quicker and less severe.

Meanwhile, the stock-to-flow model suggests there is a chance BTC could dip below $100K if downward momentum continues.

Scenarios for Bitcoin Price

• Bullish case: FOMC signals supportive policy, weak hands sold off, BTC resumes upward momentum.

• Bearish case: Hawkish tone leads to profit-taking and deeper correction below $112K support.

• Neutral case: Market consolidates in range $112K-$117K as investors digest economic cues.

For traders, timing entries around the FOMC minutes release could be crucial. Preparing for potential volatility while trading on secure platforms is essential to reduce risk.

Read Also: Amdax Plans Bitcoin Treasury Aiming for 1% of Total Supply

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price near $115,000 reflects a balance between profit-taking and investor optimism. Short-term holders selling at a loss and spot ETF outflows show temporary pressure, but historical patterns suggest potential for renewed bullish momentum once weak hands are cleared.

The upcoming FOMC minutes will likely dictate market direction, with traders weighing possible rate cuts against inflation data.

Navigating these fluctuations requires a cautious but strategic approach. Platforms like Bitrue provide secure trading environments, transparent tools, and professional support to help investors manage positions efficiently.

By using reliable exchanges, traders can participate in opportunities while mitigating risk during periods of market uncertainty.

As the crypto market adapts to macroeconomic developments, informed and prepared investors are best positioned to benefit from future BTC movements.

FAQ

Why are Bitcoin short-term holders selling at a loss?

They are locking in profits and adjusting positions, a natural occurrence when BTC reaches high price levels.

How do ETF outflows affect Bitcoin?

Outflows suggest institutional caution, which can create short-term selling pressure, though retail interest may remain strong.

What is the significance of the FOMC minutes for BTC?

They provide guidance on US monetary policy, influencing investor sentiment and short-term market direction.

Could Bitcoin fall below $100K?

Some models, like stock-to-flow, suggest a possibility, but the outcome depends on market reactions to economic events.

How can investors trade safely during volatility?

Using reliable platforms such as Bitrue ensures secure trading, better risk management, and access to professional tools.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.