Bitcoin Steady: Why LTHs Hold at $120K Breakout

Bitcoin’s price has been a wild ride, recently peaking at $122,312 before easing to $118,631, a 2.43% daily drop. 

Still, weekly gains of 3.6% and monthly gains of 0.63% signal a solid uptrend. Long-term holders (LTHs) are pivotal, yet their selling is surprisingly restrained. Why aren’t they cashing out fast? Let’s break it down.

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Why LTHs Are Holding Steady

Unlike previous bull runs where LTHs sold aggressively, this rally shows a different vibe. Sentora data reveals LTHs slowly trimming their holdings, with Checkonchain noting a -21.5K BTC net position change over three months. 

This cautious pace diverges from the heavy selling seen in earlier cycles, hinting at shifting market dynamics.

Minimal Selling Pressure

Despite Bitcoin hitting all-time highs, LTHs aren’t rushing to sell. The Long-Term Holder Sell-side Risk Ratio has dropped for 30 consecutive days to 0.0010033, a monthly low. 

This low ratio signals little urgency to offload, even at peak prices. Realized profits by LTHs also fell from 13.8K BTC to 5.6K BTC over three weeks, easing immediate pressure on price action.

Read Also: Bitcoin Treasury Data: A Quick Analysis on Top Holders

Technical Support Powers Bitcoin’s Momentum

Bitcoin’s rally is backed by strong technical support. The $116,000-$116,400 range acts as a critical floor, with bulls fiercely defending it. 

Holding above $116K could pave the way for a push to $125K-$130K. A break below might trigger a dip to $112K or even $110K, though support remains robust.

Bullish Signals from Indicators

• Breakout Confirmation: The daily chart shows BTC/USDT breaking above $112,000 with high volume, reflecting strong buyer conviction.

• Positive Indicators: The MACD and momentum indicators flash bullish signals, while moving averages across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes align upward, supporting a run toward $120K and beyond.

Institutional and On-Chain Support

Institutional demand is a major force behind Bitcoin’s strength. July saw $54.62 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows, with big players like Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy boosting their holdings. 

This institutional appetite signals confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, supporting the rally despite short-term volatility.

Low Exchange Activity

On-chain data paints a bullish picture. Exchange inflows remain low, indicating LTHs and institutions are holding tight, anticipating higher prices. 

While rising exchange reserves suggest some retail selling, the overall inflow is far below peak levels, pointing to controlled profit-taking rather than a mass sell-off.

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Market Sentiment and Macro Factors

Market sentiment is tilting bullish. Social media buzz on platforms like X shows growing excitement around Bitcoin’s $120K breakout, with posts highlighting ETF inflows and LTH restraint.

This optimism, paired with technical strength, fuels expectations of further gains if selling pressure stays low.

Macro Tailwinds

Macroeconomic factors are aligning in Bitcoin’s favor. Speculation about U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 could weaken the dollar, boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge. 

Combined with institutional buying and limited LTH selling, these tailwinds strengthen the case for a sustained rally.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin’s $120K Breakout?

If LTHs maintain their restrained selling, Bitcoin could reclaim $120,234 and target $130K. A breakout above $120,500 with strong volume might spark a surge to $125K-$140K. 

Driven by ETF demand and favorable macro conditions. Key resistance lies at $122K and $125K, but momentum favors bulls.

Risks of a Correction

Increased Selling Pressure: If LTH profit-taking ramps up significantly, Bitcoin could face downward pressure, potentially testing the $116K support level.

Deeper Pullback Risks: A failure to hold $116K might lead to a correction toward $112K or $110K, though strong institutional buying and technical support make a prolonged downturn less likely.

Read Also: BTC, SOL, and ETH Prices Rise Today: Is This a Temporary Move or a Bullish Signal?

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s holding firm near $120K, backed by cautious LTH selling, robust technical support, and surging institutional demand. With ETF inflows, low exchange activity, and bullish indicators, the rally looks set to continue.

If LTHs keep their cool and the $116K-$120K range holds, Bitcoin could soar to new highs. Watch the $116K support and $125K resistance for the next big move.

FAQ

Why aren’t long-term holders selling heavily at $120K?

LTHs are trimming slowly, with the sell-side risk ratio hitting a monthly low, showing no rush to cash out even at peak prices.

What’s the key support level for Bitcoin right now?

The $116K–$116.4K zone is the critical floor, holding above it could trigger a push toward $125K–$130K.

Which indicators confirm Bitcoin’s bullish trend?

MACD, momentum, and moving averages across all timeframes align upward, supporting a run beyond $120K.

How are ETFs influencing Bitcoin’s price?

July’s $54.62B in ETF inflows from institutions like MicroStrategy fuels demand and strengthens the uptrend.

What could trigger a correction from current levels?

Heavy LTH profit-taking or a break below $116K could push Bitcoin toward $112K–$110K.

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