FOMC Meeting Forecast: Can Crypto Keep Its Rebound Going?

All eyes are on Washington, D.C. June 17, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for a highly anticipated meeting that could reshape financial sentiment across the globe. While traditional markets remain anxious about inflation and geopolitical instability, the cryptocurrency market appears to be dancing to a different tune. 

Digital assets have staged a remarkable rebound in the past two days, defying the odds and posting solid gains—even as the Federal Reserve weighs a crucial decision on interest rates. Investors and analysts alike are now wondering: can crypto maintain its upward momentum after the FOMC’s verdict?

Read also: When Does the Fed Meet Next? Looking at the Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar

Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady Despite Political Pressure

Despite former President Donald Trump’s call for a dramatic 1% interest rate cut, the consensus among economists points to the Fed maintaining current rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range. Market data from Polymarket and other forecasting models suggest that no policy shift is expected today, with the first potential cut pushed to September or beyond. Unlike the European Central Bank, which has already enacted three rate reductions since Trump's return to office, the Fed seems more cautious. Inflation remains a concern—especially following Trump's new round of tariffs—making central bankers reluctant to act prematurely.

Why the Fed Is Holding Off

The key reason for this pause? Inflation. Although recent CPI and PPI figures have indicated cooling price pressures, many economists believe that the full effects of Trump’s tariffs have yet to play out. The Fed appears to be following a wait-and-see approach, allowing time to assess the dual impact of rising prices and potential economic slowdown. 

With inflationary risks still looming and geopolitical tensions keeping markets on edge, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues seem content to keep rates steady for now, signaling a cautious yet steady hand in unpredictable times.

Read also: Is the US Becoming More Profitable? Analyzing Its Recent Tax Revenue After Tariffs

Crypto Market Shrugs Off FOMC Worries

While interest rate policy has traditionally played a significant role in shaping crypto market trends, recent movements suggest a decoupling. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have posted impressive gains despite expectations of no rate change. 

Analysts attribute this resilience to several factors: the easing of tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, the renewed hype around a possible Solana ETF approval, and growing investor confidence in blockchain’s long-term fundamentals. Liquidity, which had briefly dried up after a sharp $1.15 billion liquidation event, is now flowing back into digital assets.

Read also: Will the Solana ETF Be Approved in July? Bullish Signs Point to Yes

Investor Sentiment Holds Strong

Interestingly, the crypto market’s strength may stem from the very predictability of today’s FOMC meeting. Since most market participants expected no rate change, there’s little shock factor left. Traders have had ample time to adjust their positions, and many now see the current climate as an opportunity. The optimism is also supported by sector-specific news—like the SEC’s softening stance on ETFs and advancements in crypto infrastructure—that offer a longer-term bullish outlook.

Conclusion

As the Fed’s decision looms, one thing is clear: crypto markets are charting their own course. While traditional financial sectors tread cautiously amid inflation worries and political pressure, digital assets are showing surprising strength. Whether this momentum will last depends not just on today’s FOMC outcome but also on how investors interpret the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical picture. For now, though, crypto seems poised to continue its rebound—proof that sentiment, not just statistics, still drives the market.

FAQs

1. What is the FOMC meeting and why does it matter?

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is where U.S. monetary policy decisions are made, including interest rate changes that affect the economy and financial markets.

2. How do interest rates impact the crypto market?

Higher interest rates can reduce liquidity and investor appetite for risk, negatively impacting crypto. Lower or stable rates often support crypto growth.

3. Why is the crypto market up ahead of the FOMC decision?

Despite rate concerns, optimism around ETF approvals, improved liquidity, and easing geopolitical tensions have helped digital assets rebound.

4. Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?

Most analysts expect the first rate cut later in the year, possibly after the September FOMC meeting, depending on inflation and economic data.