XPL Price Analysis: Will the Token Unlock Bring More Bearish Momentum?

XPL price analysis is entering a critical phase as Plasma approaches one of its largest scheduled token unlocks. With XPL already trading in a short term downtrend, investors are asking a pressing question: will XPL unlock bring bearish momentum, or is the impact already priced in?

At the time of writing, XPL is trading around $0.097 to $0.10, down 5.33 percent in the past 24 hours and 28.65 percent over the last 30 days. The market cap stands near $164.6 million, while the fully diluted valuation is significantly higher due to a large portion of tokens still locked.

The upcoming unlock adds a substantial supply shock to an already fragile technical structure. Let’s break it down.

Key Takeaways

• XPL is already in a short term downtrend with declining monthly momentum.
• The upcoming 1.76 billion token unlock nearly doubles the circulating supply.
• Without strong new demand, the unlock may increase bearish pressure.

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XPL Price Analysis and Live Price Movement

Current XPL price analysis shows the token trading around $0.09 after a steady decline from the low $0.12 range over the past month. Recent performance metrics highlight cooling momentum:

Metric overview:

1. Price: ~$0.097
2. 24 hour change: -5.33 percent
3. 7 day change: -1.94 percent
4. 30 day change: -28.65 percent
5. Market cap: ~$164.6 million
6. Circulating supply: 1.8 billion XPL
7. Total supply: 10 billion XPL
8. 24 hour volume: ~$51.9 million

Price action over the last month shows a drop from early highs near $0.12 down to the low $0.08 range, followed by a small bounce back toward $0.10. This pattern suggests a cooling phase after early listing enthusiasm.

Technically, XPL is struggling to establish higher highs. Momentum indicators remain weak, and short term rallies have failed to sustain upside follow through.

Immediate price levels to watch:

• Resistance near $0.105 to $0.11
• Key support near $0.08
• Breakdown risk below $0.08 could open deeper downside

With current liquidity turnover around 0.32 times market cap, XPL still trades with decent liquidity. However, in a cooling market, liquidity can thin quickly during negative events.

Read also : What Happened to XPL from Plasma?

XPL Token Unlock Impact and Circulating Supply Increase Effects

The most significant factor shaping XPL price pressure forecast is tokenomics. Only 18 percent of the total 10 billion supply is currently circulating. That equals 1.8 billion tokens.

The next major unlock adds 1.76 billion XPL, which is approximately 98 percent of today’s float. In simple terms, the circulating supply nearly doubles.

This unlock goes primarily to:

1. Investors
2. Team allocations
3. Ecosystem incentives

Investor and team allocations are mostly cliff based, meaning large tranches become liquid at once. Cliff unlocks are typically more disruptive than linear vesting because they introduce sudden liquidity into the market.

Following this event, additional unlocks of about 227.78 million tokens each will occur repeatedly. At current float levels, each of those events represents more than 12 percent of circulating supply.

Circulating supply increase effects usually include:

• Higher sell pressure from early holders
• Dilution concerns among new investors
• Suppressed upside momentum
• Wider trading ranges

Even if demand stays constant, doubling the float shifts the supply demand balance.

Unless strong new buying absorbs the unlock, the structural bias leans bearish.

Read also : Is Stable the Next Plasma? A Comparison of Stablecoin Blockchains

XPL Market Sentiment Post Unlock

XPL market sentiment post unlock will depend heavily on how recipients handle newly unlocked tokens.

Currently, sentiment remains cautious. The token has already lost nearly 29 percent over 30 days. That suggests existing holders may be sensitive to additional downside risk.

Two main scenarios could unfold.

Bearish skew scenario:

1. Unlock lands into negative momentum
2. Investor and team tokens enter exchanges
3. Price breaks below $0.08 support
4. Market cap compresses relative to fully diluted valuation

Neutral or offset scenario:

1. Large holders commit to structured selling
2. Some tokens are restaked or locked
3. Ecosystem growth accelerates
4. Daily trading volume remains above $50 million

The difference lies in demand absorption. If trading volume expands meaningfully, the market can digest additional supply. If volume shrinks, the unlock could amplify downside.

Traders navigating volatile unlock windows should consider secure execution environments. Bitrue offers a secure crypto trading platform with strong liquidity access and risk management tools. During high uncertainty events like token unlocks, platform reliability matters.

Read also : Plasma One Stablecoin Launches After Deutsche Bank Prediction

XPL Technical Outlook 2026 and Fundamentals

From a technical standpoint, XPL technical outlook 2026 remains challenged by heavy dilution.

Key structural observations:

• Price remains below recent swing highs
• Downtrend persists on monthly timeframe
• Resistance zones remain intact
• Supply expansion risk is high

Long term fundamentals and unlock impact are tightly linked. Plasma positions itself as a stablecoin focused Layer 1 infrastructure. That narrative could attract users if adoption scales.

However, fundamentals must outpace supply growth. With only 18 percent circulating and repeated unlocks ahead, valuation compression risk remains high.

Listicle summary of structural headwinds:

1. Large cliff unlock relative to float
2. Repeated linear vesting events
3. High fully diluted valuation compared to market cap
4. Weak short term technical structure
5. Downward monthly momentum

For XPL to break bearish pressure, it would need:

• Strong ecosystem traction
• Visible growth in on chain activity
• Clear communication from major holders
• Sustained trading volume expansion

Without these, price may remain capped or drift lower during unlock windows.

Read also : Introduction to Plasma Chain and XPL Token

Will XPL Unlock Bring More Bearish Momentum?

Given current data, the bias leans toward continued price pressure unless strong demand emerges. The unlock nearly doubles circulating supply in one event. That magnitude typically creates structural headwinds.

However, market impact is never automatic. If the unlock is widely anticipated and partially priced in, the immediate shock may be muted.

What traders should monitor:

1. Exchange inflows around unlock date
2. Daily closing behavior near $0.08
3. Volume spikes relative to price direction
4. Announcements regarding vesting adjustments

If price breaks below recent lows on high volume, it confirms unlock driven bearish momentum. If price stabilizes above $0.08 and volume expands, the market may be absorbing supply more effectively than expected.

Conclusion

XPL price analysis shows a token already in a short term downtrend, facing a major upcoming supply expansion. The 1.76 billion token unlock nearly doubles the float and introduces significant dilution risk.

Unless demand increases sharply, the structural setup favors additional bearish or range capped behavior. XPL fundamentals and unlock impact remain closely linked. Strong ecosystem growth could offset dilution, but absent that, supply pressure may dominate near term trading.

Investors should approach the unlock window with heightened caution and closely monitor liquidity, volume, and holder behavior.

FAQ

What is the current XPL price?

XPL is trading around $0.097 to $0.10.

How large is the upcoming XPL unlock?

The next unlock adds 1.76 billion tokens, nearly doubling the circulating supply.

Will XPL unlock bring bearish momentum?

It may increase selling pressure unless demand ramps up significantly.

What is XPL fully diluted valuation?

With 10 billion total supply, FDV is close to $966 million at current prices.

What support level should traders watch?

The key support level is near $0.08.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.