What Happens If Iran and Israel Launch Nuclear Attacks? Experts Warn of Fallout

A new conflict in the Middle East, this time involving nuclear facilities, has raised alarm bells from Vienna to Washington. 

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordering strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and Iran promising swift retaliation, experts warn that the potential for nuclear contamination is real, and devastating. 

The specter of nuclear war, long confined to Cold War memories, is now re-emerging in headlines and emergency summits.

A Dangerous Shift

What was once a tense but containable rivalry has evolved into a precarious confrontation. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Natanz and Isfahan sites. 

Netanyahu defended the action as a necessary measure to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Yet the international response has been marked by concern, not relief.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, expressed deep alarm, warning that military attacks could further destabilize the region. 

She emphasized diplomacy as the preferred path forward. But with nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington abruptly canceled, hopes for a peaceful resolution have rapidly faded.

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What the Experts Say

Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed that radiation levels at Natanz and Isfahan remain stable, for now. 

However, Grossi warned that continued military action could lead to radiological or chemical contamination, especially due to potential damage to underground uranium centrifuges.

The primary concern centers on uranium hexafluoride gas, which is used in Iran’s enrichment process. It is highly volatile, corrosive, and lethal if released. 

A power outage at the centrifuge facility caused by the Israeli attack could have compromised containment systems. Grossi called for immediate technical updates from Iran to assess potential environmental and health risks.

Lessons from History: Attacks on Nuclear Sites

The targeting of operational nuclear installations is rare but not without precedent. From Israel’s 1980 bombing of Iraq’s Osirak reactor to the 2007 airstrike on a Syrian nuclear facility, such actions have been justified as preemptive or preventive measures. 

However, experts argue these interventions often increase the desire for nuclear armament rather than curb it.

During the Cold War, close calls like the 1983 Petrov incident demonstrated how easily miscommunication could have led to catastrophe. 

Today’s risks may not stem from misread radar blips, but rather from the collapse of diplomatic engagement and rising pressure within military hierarchies.

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The Russia-Ukraine Conflict as a Parallel

The war in Ukraine highlighted how nuclear facilities can become front-line targets. Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in 2022 triggered widespread fears of a nuclear accident. 

Military activity around reactors, compounded by limited international oversight, remains a serious global concern.

Similar dynamics now play out in Iran. Though no reactors have exploded, the threat of contamination and regional panic looms large. Iran’s nuclear program, although claimed to be civilian, is increasingly viewed through the lens of military escalation.

A New Kind of Nuclear Rivalry

This emerging conflict is not a traditional standoff between two nuclear-armed states. Instead, it represents what nuclear security analysts call a “threshold war”, a situation where one nation attacks to prevent another from becoming nuclear-capable.

Unlike the balance maintained between India and Pakistan or the Cold War standoff between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the Iran-Israel confrontation lacks mutual deterrence. 

Israel seeks to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear leverage, while Iran now sees nuclear weapons as the only reliable deterrent. The logic is chilling, attacks meant to delay nuclear development may accelerate it instead.

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The Fallout of “Preventive” War

Israel describes its campaign as a preemptive strike, but many experts believe it is more accurately a preventive war, one waged not against an imminent threat, but to neutralize a future one. That distinction matters.

International law generally accepts preemptive action when a threat is immediate. Preventive strikes, like Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor or the U.S. invasion of Iraq, often receive legal and diplomatic criticism. Now, Israel’s actions could set a troubling precedent for other nations with nuclear ambitions.

Iran’s response has been clear. It labeled the attacks as an act of war and announced plans to draft legislation that could lead to its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such a move would signal a complete break from international nuclear agreements.

Regional and Global Repercussions

The escalation has already expanded beyond Iran and Israel. Armed groups like the Houthis in Yemen have launched missiles at Israeli targets. Meanwhile, global energy markets are bracing for disruptions, and neighboring countries fear spillover violence.

Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned militias have remained notably quiet, possibly due to Israeli counterstrikes in recent weeks. This shift has left Iran feeling increasingly isolated, further incentivizing its pursuit of nuclear weapons as a means of national defense.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is uranium hexafluoride and why is it dangerous?

Uranium hexafluoride is a chemical used in the uranium enrichment process. It is highly toxic and corrosive. If released, it can burn skin and cause severe respiratory damage or death when inhaled.

Did Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities with nuclear weapons?

No. The Israeli strikes involved conventional weapons targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, the risk lies in potential damage to radioactive materials and chemical containment systems.

Why did Israel attack Iran’s nuclear sites?

Israel argues that the strikes were necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long opposed Iran’s nuclear program and called the operation a security measure.

What does a “threshold war” mean in nuclear terms?

A threshold war refers to a conflict where a nuclear-capable nation attacks another country to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. It’s different from wars between already nuclear-armed nations, where mutual deterrence usually exists.

Has Iran responded to the Israeli attacks?

Yes. Iran has launched drone and missile strikes in retaliation. Iranian officials have vowed to rebuild the damaged facilities and are considering leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Are other countries involved in this conflict?

While no major powers have directly joined the fight, regional actors like the Houthis in Yemen have launched attacks on Israel. The U.S. has denied involvement but remains engaged diplomatically.

Could this lead to a full-scale nuclear war?

Experts say the current situation increases the risk of miscalculation and escalation. While no nuclear weapons have been used, the targeting of nuclear facilities raises serious concerns about environmental contamination and further conflict.