SPCX Rallies After Lock-Up Expiration: What Comes Next?

SPCX rally momentum has caught much of the market off guard this month, after the stock's first lockup expiration failed to trigger the selloff many investors had braced for. Shares fell to an all time low near 105 US dollars on 5 August, then reversed sharply once 911.5 million previously restricted shares became eligible to trade the next day. 

By 12 August, SPCX had climbed past 140 US dollars, extending its August recovery to more than 30 percent from that low. Here is what actually happened and what could come next.

Key Takeaways

• SPCX rebounded over 30 percent from its 5 August low of roughly 105 US dollars, despite a lockup expiration that released 911.5 million shares for trading.

• A jointly announced 16.8 billion US dollar Terafab semiconductor project with Tesla, along with renewed AI optimism, helped drive the recovery.

• Analyst price targets remain widely spread, from 160 US dollars at Argus Research to 300 US dollars at Morgan Stanley, reflecting real uncertainty about fair value.

What Happened: The Lockup Expiration That Didn't Trigger a Selloff

SpaceX went public on 12 June 2026 at 135 US dollars a share, opening at 150 and briefly touching an intraday high of 225.64 before a prolonged decline set in. By early August, concerns over cash burn had pushed the stock down to around 105 US dollars, its lowest level since the listing. 

Investors were bracing for further pressure when the company's first lockup period expired on 6 August, freeing 911.5 million shares, roughly doubling the stock's available float from about 639 million to 1.55 billion shares.

The feared wave of selling largely did not happen. Around 497 million shares changed hands across the following two trading sessions, about 54.6 percent of the newly unlocked block, yet the stock still gained 6 percent on the day of the unlock itself. 

The increased float appears to have improved liquidity rather than crushing the price, allowing institutional buyers and passive funds tracking indexes such as the Nasdaq 100 to build positions more easily. That dynamic set the stage for the sharper gains that followed later in the week.

Why SPCX Kept Climbing: Terafab, Earnings, and AI Optimism

Several catalysts converged to extend the rally beyond the initial unlock. On 6 August, SpaceX and Tesla jointly announced a 16.8 billion US dollar semiconductor fabrication project called Terafab, to be built in Grimes County, Texas, with total potential investment across multiple phases reported to reach as high as 119 billion US dollars. 

The facility is designed to produce 1 terawatt of compute capacity per year and is expected to create at least 3,000 jobs, reinforcing the narrative that SpaceX's AI ambitions extend well beyond rockets and satellites.

That narrative had actually caused some of the earlier weakness too. SpaceX's second quarter results, reported on 4 August, showed revenue of 7.814 billion US dollars, up 92 percent year over year and ahead of expectations, with Starlink reaching 12 million subscribers. 

But AI related capital expenditure surged to 15.83 billion US dollars for the quarter, pushing total capex to 18.4 billion US dollars, which initially rattled investors focused on near term cash flow. 

Sentiment shifted again on 12 August when Morgan Stanley argued the market was undervaluing SpaceX's AI business, shortly after xAI launched its Grok 4.6 model, available through the Cursor coding platform.

Read Also: SPCX Futures Sentiment: Are Traders Going Long?

Where Analysts Stand Now

SpaceX Analyst Insight, Source: finance yahoo

SPCX remains notably split, both in direction and magnitude. Based on finance yahoo data, Argus Research holds a Buy rating with a 160 US dollar price target. Bank of America has reiterated its Buy rating with a target of 235 US dollars. 

Bernstein raised its target from 239 to 248  US dollars, while Raymond James maintains a Strong Buy citing progress on Starship Flight 13. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sits at the more bullish end, reaffirming an Overweight rating with a 300 US dollar price target, well above the stock's current trading range.

This spread reflects genuine disagreement about how to value a company spanning rockets, satellite broadband, and an expanding AI business under one roof. 

SpaceX Chart Analysis, Source: TradingView

According to Bitrue Research Institute, SPCX's chart shows genuine bullish momentum, price back above both moving averages and RSI climbing toward overbought, but the reversal is already a couple weeks old, making this a chase rather than an entry. 

SpaceX Price Target, Source: Bitrue Research Institute

The real risk sits in valuation, not price action, since the wide $115-$800 analyst spread shows the market hasn't decided whether this is a launch company or an AI platform, and that uncertainty matters more than any single technical signal right now.

Retail sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits has turned notably more bullish over the past few sessions as well, alongside disclosures showing Valor Equity Partners founder Antonio Gracias holding a 6.5 percent stake and Norway's sovereign wealth fund disclosing a smaller position of its own.

Technical Levels and What Comes Next

From a technical standpoint, the 135 US dollar level, which also happens to be SpaceX's IPO price, has acted as a key resistance point during the recovery. 

SpaceX share price chart, Source: TradingView

We view this level as significant because it aligns with the cost basis many early investors are watching, meaning renewed selling pressure could emerge as the stock approaches it. 

A failure to hold above this level could see shares retest the 100 US dollar area, while a successful break higher has been framed as opening a path toward 150 US dollars.

The next scheduled catalyst is a second wave of lockup expirations on 20 August 2026, with further tranches continuing through December. How the stock handles that event will likely say a great deal about whether the current rally reflects a genuine shift in sentiment or simply a short term reaction to reduced selling pressure clearing more easily than expected.

Read Also: Applied Materials Stock: The Hidden AI Chip Play of 2026?

Risks Still on the Table

Despite the recovery, several risks remain unresolved. SpaceX's cash burn, driven largely by AI infrastructure spending, has not gone away, and some analysts remain cautious about the company's overall valuation even after the pullback from its June highs. 

Additional lockup tranches through the end of the year could reintroduce selling pressure at points the market is not currently expecting. Broader macro factors, including upcoming inflation data, could also weigh on high multiple technology names more generally, regardless of company specific news.

Retail enthusiasm has clearly played a role in the recent bounce, and strong retail buying can support a stock during periods of uncertainty, but it can also reverse quickly if sentiment shifts. 

For now, SPCX sits in a genuinely contested space between bulls who see an underappreciated AI business and more cautious voices who still view the stock as expensive relative to its current cash flow position.

Conclusion

SPCX's rally after its first lockup expiration caught many off guard, driven by a mix of resilient demand for the newly freed shares, the surprise Terafab announcement, and renewed optimism around SpaceX's AI ambitions. 

With analyst targets spread widely and a second lockup wave approaching on 20 August, the coming weeks should offer a clearer read on whether this recovery has real staying power. 

For those who want to follow or trade SPCX through this period, Bitrue offers a straightforward and secure way to do so as a tokenised stock in one place.

FAQ

Why did SPCX rally after its lockup expiration?

The feared wave of insider selling largely did not materialise, and improved liquidity from the larger float, combined with the Terafab announcement, helped drive the stock higher.

How many shares were unlocked in SPCX's first lockup expiration?

Approximately 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade on 6 August 2026, roughly doubling the stock's available float.

What is the average analyst price target for SPCX?

Targets range widely, from 160 US dollars at Argus Research to 300 US dollars at Morgan Stanley, with Bank of America and Bernstein positioned in between.

When is SPCX's next lockup expiration?

A second wave of lockup expirations is scheduled for 20 August 2026, with further tranches continuing through December.

Can I trade SPCX stock as a tokenised asset?

Yes. SPCX is available as a tokenised stock on platforms such as Bitrue, allowing exposure through a crypto trading account.

Disclaimer: 

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and carry significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Certain products and services referenced may not be available to residents of restricted jurisdictions, including but not limited to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Economic Area, and China.