SPCX Futures Sentiment: Are Traders Going Long?

SPCX futures trader sentiment in August 2026 tells the story of a market that has shifted from post-IPO panic to aggressive re-engagement. 

SpaceX stock dropped over 53% from its $225.64 all-time high to a $104.83 low in less than 2 months, then bounced roughly 32% in a single week. 

Perpetual futures liquidation data from Coinglass shows both longs and shorts being wiped out in nearly equal measure, confirming that traders are chasing volatility in both directions. Here is what the positioning data reveals.

Key Takeaways

• Coinglass liquidation data shows balanced long and short liquidations in recent sessions, indicating traders are chasing SPCX volatility from both sides rather than holding directional conviction.
• SPCX open interest has surged from approximately $350M to $400M at the 3 August low to roughly $800M to $900M by 10 August, confirming a sharp influx of new futures positions.
• SPCX is currently trading above the $114 level that the Bitrue Research Institute identifies as the key breakout point above the post IPO downtrend.

Liquidation Data of SPCX Reveals Trader’s Behaviour

SPCX has become one of the most volatile assets in the derivatives market since SpaceX listed on 12 June 2026 at a $135 IPO price. The stock surged to an intraday high of $225.64 by 16 June as post IPO FOMO pushed leveraged longs into a frenzy. 

What followed was a 53% drawdown to an all time low of $104.83 on 3 August, wiping out the majority of those early positions in a cascade of forced liquidations visible across the Coinglass perpetual data.

The Coinglass SPCX perpetual liquidation chart captures how that dynamic has evolved. In mid to late June, the liquidation profile was overwhelmingly one sided, with large green bars showing long positions being flushed as the price collapsed from the peak. 

By late July and into early August, however, the structure shifted. Liquidations across longs and shorts became roughly balanced. Neither bulls nor bears are dominating. 

Longs get flushed on sharp intraday dips. Shorts get squeezed on recovery candles. The recent sessions show this two sided pattern clearly, with both red and green bars of comparable size appearing on consecutive days.

Image Source: Coinglass

This type of balanced liquidation environment is characteristic of a market where volatility itself has become the trade. Traders are entering leveraged positions from both directions, betting on short term swings rather than committing to a sustained move. 

Bitrue Research Institute notes that this kind of environment can present opportunities for disciplined traders who manage risk carefully, as the elevated price swings create wider ranges to capture through well timed entries and exits. 

Does Rising Open Interest Confirm Traders Are Flocking into SPCX?

The liquidation data shows who is getting burned. The open interest data shows who is still coming back. 

According to Coinglass, SPCX open interest started July at approximately $600M to $700M. It declined alongside the falling price through mid July, dipping below $500M as traders exited or were forced out of positions. 

By the time SPCX hit its $104.83 all time low on 3 August, open interest had dropped to roughly $350M to $400M, reflecting a significant deleveraging across the board.

What happened next is the signal that matters. From 3 August onward, open interest climbed sharply back toward $800M to $900M, nearly doubling from the low in under a week. 

This increase coincides directly with SPCX's recovery from $104.83 to approximately $138, meaning these are fresh positions being opened by traders entering the market, not legacy positions being held through the drawdown.

Image Source: Coinglass

Rising open interest alongside a rising price is one of the most straightforward signals in derivatives analysis. 

It confirms that the recovery is being driven by new capital entering the market rather than just short covering or position adjustments from existing holders. 

When open interest rises while price falls, it typically indicates shorts are piling in. When both rise together, it points to genuine buyer conviction.

The timing adds further weight to this reading. The lock up expiry on 6 August released approximately 911.5 million previously restricted SpaceX shares into the market, more than doubling the public float. Most analysts expected this to pressure the price lower. 

Instead, SPCX closed 6.1% higher on that day. The combination of rising open interest and a stock that rallied through a major supply event suggests that new demand is outpacing whatever selling came from unlocked insiders. 

Bitrue Research Institute interprets this as a sign that traders see the current price range as an opportunity, not a risk.

Read also: How to Trade Tokenized Stocks with 0% Trading Fees - From NVIDIA to SpaceX

What Price Level Does SPCX Need to Hold for the Recovery to Continue?

SPCX spent its first 2 months as a public company in a downtrend. From the $225.64 all time high on 16 June to the $104.83 low on 3 August, the stock traced a descending channel that defined the direction with a series of lower highs and lower lows. 

Every bounce attempt within that period was met with renewed selling, and traders who bought into rallies were consistently punished.

That structure appears to have changed. SPCX's recovery from the 3 August low has broken above the descending trendline that connected the series of lower highs from mid June through early August. 

Image Source: TradingView

The critical level, according to Bitrue Research Institute, is $114. This price represents both the approximate breakout point above the downtrend and the level where the stock found support during the 6 August lock up expiry session, when SPCX bounced after dropping as low as $104.83 in the days prior.

As long as SPCX holds above $114, the technical case for a continued recovery remains intact. A sustained break below that level would suggest the current move is a relief rally within the broader downtrend rather than the beginning of a structural reversal. On the upside, the $135 IPO price is the next meaningful resistance. 

Reclaiming that level would return all IPO buyers to breakeven, which would likely shift market sentiment from cautious recovery into renewed accumulation.

The broader fundamental backdrop supports the case for continued interest. SpaceX reported Q2 2026 revenue growth of 92% to $7.8B and adjusted EBITDA growth of 191% in its first earnings report as a public company. 

The Starlink V3 roadmap projects significantly higher bandwidth capacity, and the company's AI segment through its xAI acquisition adds a growth narrative beyond aerospace alone. 

These fundamentals give futures traders a catalyst beyond pure price action, which is part of what is drawing positioning back into the market after the sharp post IPO correction.

Conclusion

SPCX futures data for August 2026 shows a market that has transitioned from panic selling into aggressive re-engagement. 

Liquidations are balanced across longs and shorts, open interest has nearly doubled from the 3 August low, and the price has broken above its post IPO downtrend for the first time. 

The lock up expiry on 6 August, which many expected to trigger further selling, instead saw SPCX close higher as new demand absorbed the additional supply. 

As long as the stock holds above the $114 breakout level, the Bitrue Research Institute sees the current recovery as structurally different from earlier relief rallies within the downtrend. 

Bitrue's tokenised stock products, including the 3x leveraged SpaceX tokens, allow traders to express directional views on SPCX with adjustable risk exposure.

FAQ

Is SPCX Still Volatile after the Post IPO Correction?

Yes. Coinglass data shows both long and short liquidations occurring in nearly equal measure across recent sessions, confirming elevated two sided volatility in the SPCX perpetual futures market.

What Does Rising Open Interest in SPCX Indicate?

Rising open interest alongside a rising price indicates new capital is entering the market to support the recovery, rather than the bounce being driven purely by short covering or position adjustments.

What Price Level Should SPCX Traders Monitor?

The Bitrue Research Institute identifies $114 as the key breakout level above the post IPO downtrend. Holding above this price supports the case for continued recovery toward the $135 IPO price resistance.

Did the Lock Up Expiry Cause SPCX to Drop?

No. Despite approximately 911.5 million shares becoming eligible for trading on 6 August, SPCX closed 6.1% higher on that day, suggesting new demand outpaced selling from unlocked insiders.

Can I Trade SPCX on Bitrue?

Yes. Bitrue offers multiple SPCX products including tokenised spot trading (SPCXON), xStock exposure (SPCXX), and the first ever 3x leveraged SpaceX tokens (SPCX3L and SPCX3S) for directional trading.

Disclaimer: 

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and carry significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Certain products and services referenced may not be available to residents of restricted jurisdictions, including but not limited to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Economic Area, and China.