Solana ETF Odds Surge to 60% Ahead of July 31 Deadline

As the countdown to July 31 continues, the probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Solana ETF has surged to 60%, according to data from prediction market. This jump reflects a growing belief among investors, analysts, and issuers that the long-awaited introduction of a regulated SOL-backed exchange-traded fund could be just weeks away. 

With eight major financial firms now in the race, including CoinShares, Bitwise, VanEck, and 21Shares, the momentum behind a Solana ETF is stronger than ever—setting the stage for what some are calling the beginning of “Altcoin ETF Summer.”

Source: Polymarket

Read also: Will the Solana ETF Be Approved in July? Bullish Signs Point to Yes

Race Accelerates: CoinShares Joins With a Strategic Staking Angle

The most recent addition to the ETF battle is CoinShares, which filed a Form S-1 registration with the SEC, signaling its intent to launch a Solana ETF that would hold actual SOL tokens. The firm plans to stake a portion of these holdings through third-party providers. Although CoinShares will not operate its own validator nodes, it will benefit from a share of staking rewards, offering investors passive exposure to SOL’s network yield.

This passive income feature could give the CoinShares ETF an edge, especially after the SEC recently asked issuers to clarify their approach to in-kind redemptions and staking strategies in updated filings. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart argue that ETFs offering staking benefits could become the new standard, warning that any product lacking yield exposure risks becoming obsolete in the eyes of institutional investors.

Analysts Signal Imminent Approval: “Just Days or Weeks Away”

Optimism has been fueled further by insights from market analysts and insiders. Eric Balchunas believes that Solana could be the first altcoin to secure spot ETF approval, stating there's a strong likelihood this could happen within two to four months. Fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart echoed this sentiment, noting the SEC’s rapid engagement with issuers suggests a decision may arrive sooner—potentially as early as late July or early Q4.

Crypto industry commentator Noelle Acheson added weight to these predictions, describing the SEC’s guidance to issuers as a “nudge” toward imminent approval. This momentum follows a wave of amended applications from firms like 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, and Canary Capital—all of whom are refining their proposals in response to the SEC’s requests for updated language on redemption models and staking mechanics.

Read also: Solana ETFs Set for Approval in 2025: Is Now the Right Time to Buy SOL Before $300 Surge?

Institutional Demand and Political Pressure Grow

The prospect of a Solana ETF isn’t just being driven by crypto-native enthusiasm—it’s also receiving serious attention from traditional finance heavyweights. Invesco and Galaxy Digital recently registered a Solana ETF trust in Delaware, a crucial first step before formally filing with the SEC. Meanwhile, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale are each revising their approaches, highlighting institutional commitment to gaining exposure to SOL via regulated frameworks.

Adding pressure on the SEC, VanEck, Canary, and 21Shares submitted a joint request to reinstate the “first-to-file” rule—urging the Commission to uphold the historical order of application submissions. They argue that deviations from this order, as seen in the 2021 approval of the ProShares Bitcoin Futures ETF, unfairly distort competition and undermine procedural fairness.

Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, emphasized that failing to apply consistent standards burdens early filers and discourages innovation. His comments reflect broader frustration among issuers who have incurred the costs of regulatory engagement without timely approvals.

Market Implications: Solana and the Broader Crypto Ecosystem

The potential approval of a Solana ETF is more than a regulatory milestone—it could be a significant market catalyst. Historical trends show that ETF-related developments often spark price rallies in the underlying assets, and Solana may be no exception. With ETF odds climbing from 50% to 60% within a week and some predictions placing the chance as high as 91% by year-end, investors are already preparing for market-moving news.

The success of a Solana ETF could also signal a broader shift in regulatory attitudes toward altcoins, creating a ripple effect that opens doors for other Layer-1 tokens like Avalanche, Cardano, and Polkadot. At the very least, it confirms that staking mechanisms and network yield are no longer fringe ideas—they’re central to the future of crypto investment products.

Read also: SEC Fast-Track Solana ETF Review: July Approval Likely in 5 Weeks

FAQs About the Solana ETF Push

1. What is a Solana ETF and why does it matter?

A Solana ETF would allow investors to gain regulated exposure to the SOL token without directly holding it, potentially driving broader institutional adoption.

2. Who has filed for a Solana ETF so far?

Firms like CoinShares, Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, and Invesco Galaxy have all either filed or amended applications with the SEC in pursuit of launching a spot Solana ETF.

3. Will staking be part of these ETF products?

Yes. Several issuers, including CoinShares, plan to stake a portion of SOL holdings through third-party providers, offering passive yield to ETF shareholders.

4. When is the SEC expected to make a decision?

While exact timing is uncertain, analysts suggest the SEC could approve a Solana ETF as early as late July or more likely in early Q4 2025.