Ethereum Price Prediction (Aug 5–11): Will ETH Break $4K This Week?

Ethereum (ETH) has been dancing around the $4,000 resistance zone for weeks, teasing bulls and testing the patience of traders. 

After a short-term pullback from recent highs, the question dominating headlines is simple: Can Ethereum finally break through the $4,000 ceiling during the week of August 5–11, 2025?

While ETH dipped more than 8% last week to as low as $3,356, technical indicators, whale accumulation, and record-breaking on-chain metrics suggest the bears may be walking into a trap. 

Let’s explore whether Ethereum has the momentum and the institutional backing push beyond this psychological milestone.

Technical Analysis: Can ETH Retake Control?

ETH’s daily chart remains structurally bullish despite its pullback from $3,939. After breaking above $2,800 and then $3,500 in July, the price encountered resistance near $4,000 an area that aligns with late 2024 swing highs.

ETH has now pulled back toward $3,500, which is being retested as support. The RSI has dropped from overbought levels and now hovers around 56, leaving room for another leg up. 

The 100-day moving average crossing above the 200-day average confirms a golden cross a historically bullish signal.

If ETH maintains its footing above $3,500, the next targets are $3,785 (short-term resistance) and $4,051. A break and daily close above these levels could push Ethereum toward the $4,400–$4,500 zone.

Read Also: ETH Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Before the $4K Breakout

Short-Term Price Action: Bear Trap in Play?

ETH broke down from a rising wedge last week but has since stabilized. The recent bounce from $3,356 and consolidation around $3,500–$3,750 suggests accumulation.

If ETH breaks above $3,750 with momentum, a quick surge to $3,900 is likely. However, failure to hold $3,500 could trigger another retest of $3,350 and potentially $3,100.

This pattern aligns with a classic bear trap, where excessive short positioning is swiftly reversed, leading to a rapid price surge. If ETH manages a clean break above $3,750 this week, another test of $4,000 is highly probable.

Ethereum Weekly Price Prediction (Aug 5–11)

Based on the current technicals, on-chain indicators, and sentiment data:

Overall weekly forecast ETH is likely to range between $3,500 and $3,850, with a potential breakout to $4,050 if whales step in and resistance at $3,785 is cleared. Failing to hold $3,500 would invalidate the bullish case.

Read Also: Ethereum Could Surpass $4,000 in 2025, Says Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz

Whale and Retail Activity Shows Bullish Divergence

Whale ETH wallets have added 1.82% more ETH over the past 30 days, while retail investors also increased their exposure by 1.87%. The middle tier of investors, however, has reduced holdings—suggesting a redistribution phase.

IntoTheBlock’s Bull-Bear indicator shows bulls outnumbering bears by 7 over the last 7 days, a modest lead but one that points to quiet confidence building beneath the surface. 

This divergence between whale activity and public sentiment could fuel a surprise move upward.

Additionally, Binance’s long/short account ratio stands at 1.91, almost two long positions for every short. This indicates bullish leanings among active traders.

On-Chain Metrics: Ethereum Network Heating Up

Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals are surging. In July:

• Monthly transaction volume hit $238 billion, up 70% month-over-month—the highest since December 2021.
• 46.67 million transactions were recorded—the highest monthly figure in Ethereum history.
• Active addresses rose to 17.55 million, near all-time highs.
• The 7-day moving average of transactions is nearing its record of 1.66 million/day.

All these metrics show Ethereum is not only thriving from a price perspective but also from a usage and adoption standpoint, strengthening the bull case.

Read Also: Ethereum Mega Whales Are Buying Big: What It Means for ETH Price

Exchange Supply Ratio: Fuel for a Breakout?

Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio has hit a new low at 0.13 indicating that most ETH is being moved off exchanges into cold wallets or staking platforms. This reduces the available sell-side pressure and means that any uptick in demand especially institutional could lead to parabolic price action.

This aligns with Ethereum’s long-term trajectory as a yield-bearing asset post-Merge. Investors seem to be accumulating, not distributing.

Institutional Demand: Still the Missing Piece?

Despite the strong fundamentals, ETH has struggled to break $4,000 due to a lack of sustained institutional demand. Recent ETH spot ETF flows showed $129 million in outflows, signaling a cautious stance from big money.

Coinbase and Kraken, popular among U.S. institutions currently show ETH trading at a slight discount compared to Binance and Bitfinex, which suggests weaker U.S. institutional appetite.

Unless this narrative flips, Ethereum may remain trapped under $4K despite bullish indicators.

Read Also: Ethereum ETF Speculation Grows, Will It Fuel the Next Rally?

Conclusion: ETH Breakout or Fakeout?

Ethereum’s fundamentals, transaction volume, active addresses, and whale activity point to a bullish underlying trend. Technicals also support further upside, especially if ETH can reclaim $3,785 and hold $3,500 as support.

But the wildcard remains institutional demand for ETH. Without a new wave of inflows, a clean break above $4,000 could prove elusive. However, if bulls trap the bears this week and volume surges, ETH could swiftly target $4,400 and beyond.

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FAQ

What is Ethereum's price prediction for August 5–11?

ETH is expected to trade between $3,500 and $4,050. A breakout above $3,785 could signal a move to $4,400 if supported by volume and institutional buying.

Why is $4,000 a key level for Ethereum?

The $4,000 level is both psychological and technical resistance. It aligns with prior swing highs and has been a ceiling for several months.

Are whales buying Ethereum?

Yes. On-chain data shows whale wallets increased ETH holdings by 1.82% in the past 30 days, signaling quiet accumulation.

Is Ethereum seeing institutional demand?

Currently, institutional demand appears weak, as ETH ETFs recorded net outflows of $129 million. However, this could change rapidly with a market catalyst.

What are Ethereum’s on-chain metrics showing?

Ethereum hit $238 billion in July transaction volume and recorded 46.67 million monthly transactions—both multi-year highs, indicating strong network activity.