Ethereum ETF Speculation Grows, Will It Fuel the Next Rally?

As Ethereum (ETH) hovers near the $3,650 mark following a recent rebound from lows around $3,355, speculation is mounting: could the growing interest in Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), combined with surging on-chain metrics, ignite the next major crypto rally?

While derivatives markets remain cautious, with the ETH 3-month futures premium lingering at the neutral-to-bearish 5% level, underlying fundamentals on the Ethereum network tell a more bullish story.

Despite macroeconomic headwinds and short-term price volatility, Ethereum’s network usage and on-chain activity are hitting multi-year highs, signaling growing user demand and adoption.

Ethereum Daily Transactions Hit Record Highs

Source: The Block Data

Ethereum’s daily transaction count has reached 1.7 million, its highest level in over a year. This surge places current Ethereum daily transactions just below its all-time high from May 2021.

In July alone, Ethereum processed 46.67 million transactions, marking a 3.6% increase month-over-month and the highest ever monthly transaction count in the network’s history.

Simultaneously, the 7-day moving average (7DMA) of Ethereum network transactions is brushing against all-time highs, indicating consistent activity rather than short bursts. 

This sustained volume reflects robust user engagement, driven by both decentralized applications (DApps) and DeFi protocols.

Read Also: Ethereum Could Surpass $4,000 in 2025, Says Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz

ETH On-Chain Activity Reflects Real Usage

Beyond transactions, ETH on-chain activity is thriving. According to on-chain analytics, Ethereum’s active address count for July soared to 17.55 million, the highest level since May 2021. 

Meanwhile, the monthly on-chain volume stood at over $238 billion, a 70% increase from the prior month.

This uptick isn’t merely speculative; it’s grounded in actual network engagement. Whale and retail wallets have both increased their ETH holdings, by 1.82% and 1.87% respectively, suggesting conviction across the board.

Interestingly, mid-sized investor wallets have reduced their exposure, possibly indicating redistribution to more confident hands.

Additionally, the Ethereum Exchange Supply Ratio has dropped to a multi-year low of 0.13, highlighting a shift of ETH holdings away from exchanges.

This suggests long-term investors are moving their ETH into cold storage, staking contracts, or DeFi platforms, effectively tightening the liquid supply.

Read Also: Will Ethereum Reach $4,000 This Week?

Ethereum Network Usage Suggests Strengthening Fundamentals

From a utility perspective, Ethereum network usage is accelerating. This isn’t just evident in daily transactions and active addresses but also in the growing dominance of Ethereum in Total Value Locked (TVL).

Despite a 9% decline in ETH-denominated TVL in July, Ethereum still commands 59% of global DeFi TVL in USD terms, far outpacing BNB Chain and Solana.

What’s more, strategic whale movements underscore rising confidence. Notable wallets have recently accumulated over $142 million in ETH, with entities like FalconX and Galaxy Digital facilitating large-scale transfers.

The ETF Catalyst: Bullish or Already Priced In?

Source: CoinShares

While spot Ethereum ETFs are gaining traction, recent data is mixed. ETFs recorded $129 million in net outflows between Wednesday and Friday of last week, reflecting investor uncertainty amid broader crypto market turbulence.

Yet, weekly data from CoinShares suggests otherwise, Ethereum saw $133.9 million in inflows last week, even as Bitcoin faced over $400 million in outflows.

This divergence suggests that institutional players may be strategically positioning for a medium to long-term ETH rally, betting on Ethereum’s evolving role as a yield-bearing asset post-Merge.

Read Also: How High Ethereum Price Forecast on 2026?

Price Action: What Lies Ahead for ETH?

Source: Ali Charts on X

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum’s recent pullback from the $3,900 zone appears to be a healthy correction rather than a bearish breakdown. ETH is currently consolidating above the key $3,500 support level, which previously served as a resistance zone.

Analysts like Michael van de Poppe and Ali Martinez highlight $3,537 as a critical support, with potential upside to $4,100–$4,500 if ETH reclaims momentum. However, failure to hold $3,500 could see ETH revisit $2,800 or $2,750, depending on macroeconomic developments.

Short-term price charts reveal a consolidation range between $3,500 and $3,750, and a breakout above this could test the psychological $4,000 mark once again.

Source: Michael van de Popple on X

Conclusion: Is Ethereum on the Cusp of a Bull Run?

The convergence of rising Ethereum daily transactions, robust ETH on-chain activity, and reduced Ethereum network exchange supply paints a compelling picture. Despite short-term caution in derivatives markets and ETF outflows, the fundamentals suggest ETH may be coiling for its next breakout.

With speculation over spot ETFs, strategic whale accumulation, and increasing real-world utility through DeFi and NFTs, Ethereum could soon decouple from broader market indecision.

But whether ETH rallies or consolidates further, one thing is clear, Ethereum’s long-term narrative is being shaped by real adoption, not just hype.

Stay updated on Ethereum’s journey, ETF developments, and emerging crypto trends by following the Bitrue Blog, your trusted source for daily market insights, project deep dives, and trading analysis.

FAQ

What are Ethereum daily transactions, and why do they matter?

Ethereum daily transactions refer to the total number of interactions on the Ethereum blockchain per day. A rise in transactions indicates growing usage, which often correlates with increased network demand and investor interest.

How does ETH on-chain activity reflect market sentiment?

On-chain activity, such as transaction volume, active addresses, and whale movements, reveals how users are interacting with the network. High activity often signals bullish sentiment and adoption.

Why is Ethereum network usage important for price action?

Rising network usage suggests real-world demand for Ethereum’s services (DeFi, NFTs, staking). This demand can drive prices higher, especially when combined with decreasing supply on exchanges.

What’s the impact of Ethereum ETFs on price?

Ethereum ETFs provide institutional access to ETH. Inflows suggest accumulation, which can drive up prices. However, outflows may indicate cautious sentiment or short-term profit-taking.

Is Ethereum a good investment right now?

Ethereum’s fundamentals remain strong with high network usage and tight supply. However, investors should consider market volatility and macroeconomic risks before making decisions.