Bitcoin Price USD: Momentum For Breakout Or Breakdown?

Bitcoin’s price is stuck in a tug-of-war, hovering around $106,848 as of June 27, 2025, with a market cap of $2.12 trillion. Despite strong institutional buying and positive market signals, BTC can’t seem to break free from its $103,000–$108,000 range. 

Is a breakout to new highs on the horizon, or is a dip looming? Let’s dive into the forces shaping Bitcoin’s price and what to watch for next.

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Why Bitcoin’s Price Is Stalled

Bitcoin’s price action is caught between bullish momentum and heavy selling pressure. Institutional investors and corporate treasuries are piling in, but long-term holders cashing out and macroeconomic uncertainties are keeping gains in check.

ETF Inflows Surge but Fail to Lift Prices

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have soaked up over 100,000 BTC in Q2 2025, pushing total ETF holdings to 630,000 BTC. Big players like BlackRock are driving this demand, yet Bitcoin’s price has barely budged since March. The reason? ETF buying alone isn’t enough to overpower the selling pressure flooding the market.

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Corporate Treasuries Double Down

Companies like MicroStrategy have been aggressive, adding 64,000 BTC in 2025, bringing corporate treasury holdings to 823,000 BTC, worth about $86 billion. This shows strong belief in Bitcoin as a reserve asset, but the impact is dulled by other market dynamics.

The market’s bullish catalysts are being countered by significant selling from long-term holders and miners.

Long-Term Holders Cash Out

Data shows that over 240,000 BTC from wallets held for 1–5 years have been sold in the last 90 days. This wave of profit-taking from veteran investors has absorbed much of the institutional demand, keeping Bitcoin’s price range-bound. 

Meanwhile, miners are adding about 450 BTC daily to the circulating supply, further pressuring prices.

Derivatives Dominate Trading

The derivatives market is booming, with open interest hitting $25 billion, up from $5 billion three years ago. Perpetual futures now drive most BTC trading volume, but this “paper Bitcoin” doesn’t directly affect spot prices, reducing the impact of speculative trading.

Macro Factors Weigh on Bitcoin

External economic forces are also capping Bitcoin’s upside, as traders navigate uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy and global adoption trends.

Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade

Hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July 2025 have dimmed due to sticky inflation, with core PCE expected above 2.6% year-over-year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resisting political pressure from figures like President Trump, who has pushed for immediate cuts. Since Bitcoin is sensitive to real interest rates, this uncertainty is keeping risk-on flows in check.

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Bitcoin’s Tie to U.S. Markets

Bitcoin briefly hit a weekly high of $108,400, tracking a surge in S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures. But repeated rejections at $108,000 pushed it back to $107,000. The upcoming PCE inflation data could either fuel a breakout or trigger a drop below $105,000.

Technical Levels to Watch

Bitcoin’s chart offers clues about its next move, with key support and resistance levels in focus. The $104,000 level, backed by the 50-day EMA and past demand zones, is a critical support. A break below could see Bitcoin test $100,000, a major psychological floor.

On the upside, $112,000 is the breakout barrier. Clearing it could spark a run toward $120,000, but failure to break through will likely keep Bitcoin stuck in its current range.

New Developments Fuel Optimism

Beyond price action, Bitcoin’s ecosystem is buzzing with innovation and adoption, which could drive future momentum.

Bitcoin Hyper, a Layer-2 network using Solana Virtual Machine and zero-knowledge proofs, raised $1.6 million in its presale, with its $HYPER token priced at $0.01205. By enabling smart contracts and dApps, it’s sparking excitement about Bitcoin’s scalability and could attract new users.

Global Adoption Grows

India is exploring Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, following El Salvador’s lead, per That’s TradingNEWS. Meanwhile, U.S. institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are considering crypto for mortgage qualifications, signaling broader acceptance. These shifts could elevate Bitcoin’s status as a global reserve currency.

Retail Investors: The Missing Spark

While institutions are active, retail participation is quiet. On-chain data shows low wallet creation and transaction activity. Historically, retail surges often follow Bitcoin breaking all-time highs, potentially doubling its price in weeks. 

Long-term holder selling has also slowed to under 1,000 BTC daily from 3,000+ in May, hinting at a possible turning point.

Altcoins Await Bitcoin’s Lead

Altcoins are stuck in Bitcoin’s shadow. Ethereum gained 6.7% to $2,432.20, while XRP, Solana, and Cardano saw mixed results, per That’s TradingNEWS. Meme tokens like Dogecoin dipped slightly, but $TRUMP rose 1%. A Bitcoin breakout could ignite an altcoin rally, but for now, they lack independent momentum.

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Chart Analysis: Breakout or Pullback?

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a V-shaped recovery from $98,240, with bullish signals from the 10-day EMA ($105,718) and SMA ($104,894). Momentum indicators like MACD and the awesome oscillator also lean bullish. 

However, the 4-hour chart suggests indecision, with a potential bullish flag forming. A break above $108,500 with strong volume could confirm a rally, while a drop to $105,000 might offer a buying opportunity.

Whale Activity Signals Confidence

Whales are accumulating, with wallets holding 10–100 BTC adding exposure. Smaller wallets (1–10 BTC) are selling, but the overall accumulation trend score has risen from 0.25 to 0.57, showing growing confidence among big players.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price is teetering between a breakout and a breakdown. Strong ETF inflows, corporate buying, and Layer-2 innovations like Bitcoin Hyper signal bullish potential, but long-term holder selling and macro uncertainties are holding it back. 

Keep an eye on $104,000 support and $112,000 resistance, as well as PCE inflation data, for the next move. If retail investors jump in or global adoption accelerates, Bitcoin could surge past $120,000. For now, it’s a waiting game.

FAQ

Why isn’t Bitcoin pumping despite massive ETF inflows?

ETF demand is strong, but long-term holders and miners are selling into strength, absorbing the buy pressure and keeping price range-bound.

What’s the key technical level Bitcoin must break to rally?

BTC must clear $112,000 with volume to trigger a breakout. Until then, $104,000 remains the crucial support to watch.

Are whales buying or selling right now?

Whales are loading up, wallets holding 10–100 BTC are accumulating, signaling growing confidence behind the scenes.

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