Is Bitcoin Recovering? Looking at Recent Data

After a turbulent weekend marked by geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown surprising resilience, bouncing back above the $100,000 mark and gaining 3.2% in the past 24 hours.

But is this a genuine recovery or just another temporary bounce in an increasingly volatile market?

Ceasefire Calms Markets — Bitcoin Rebounds

The initial spark for the recovery came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, alleviating global market fears after a tense few days.

This announcement triggered a wave of optimism across financial markets: the S&P 500 rose 1%, oil prices retreated from a Sunday high of $77, and expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts increased.

The crypto market mirrored this positive sentiment. Bitcoin rallied after a brief dip below $100,000, helped by institutional optimism and a possible shift toward risk-on behavior.

Read Also: Texas Bitcoin Reserves: Growing Trend or Government Strategy?

Weekend Wipeout: Liquidations and Price Swings

Despite the recovery, the weekend saw $419 million worth of Bitcoin long positions liquidated, driven by market panic following reports that the U.S. had bombed several of Iran’s key nuclear facilities.

That aggressive selloff, however, only led to $193 million in liquidated long leveraged positions, accounting for a modest 0.3% of total open interest.

As of now, over $68 billion in leveraged positions remain active, suggesting the derivatives market remains largely intact and far from systemic risk.

Interestingly, just hours ago, a new escalation occurred, Iran reportedly launched a retaliatory strike on the Al-Udeid air base in Qatar, a U.S. military hub. Counterintuitively, this event triggered a price spike for Bitcoin, possibly indicating that investors are viewing BTC as a geopolitical hedge.

Technical Analysis: Support Holding, Patterns Emerging

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has now bounced off the $100,000 support line for the third time since May 12, reinforcing its psychological significance. However, each bounce has resulted in a lower high, suggesting weakening buyer momentum.

On the daily chart, a bearish “death cross”—where the 9-day EMA crosses below the 21-day EMA—has emerged, which traditionally signals downward pressure. Still, Bitcoin is trading above the 200-day EMA, a long-term bullish indicator that tempers short-term pessimism.

Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern is taking shape. The neckline is forming around $104,757, and a confirmed breakout above $105,500 could indicate short-term upside potential.

Read Also: Michael Saylor’s Bold Bitcoin Strategy: $105K Average Buy Revealed

Mining and Hashrate: Volatility Below the Surface

Another factor complicating the outlook is a noticeable 8% drop in Bitcoin’s hashrate over the past week, from 943.6 million TH/s to 865.1 million TH/s.

While some speculate that unauthorized mining operations in Iran could be a factor, analysts like Daniel Batten have pointed to weather-related shutdowns in the U.S., particularly ERCOT curtailments in Texas, as more plausible causes.

These dips, while notable, are not unprecedented and may not indicate deeper structural problems with network security or miner confidence.

Institutional Flows Stay Positive

On the fund flow side, crypto investment funds logged $1.24 billion in inflows last week, marking the 10th consecutive week of positive sentiment and setting a record $15.1 billion in year-to-date inflows.

Notably, Bitcoin-focused funds attracted $1.1 billion, showing that institutional appetite remains strong, even amid price swings.

The pace of inflows did slow late in the week, likely due to the U.S. Juneteenth holiday and ongoing geopolitical concerns, but the net trend is bullish.

Additionally, short-Bitcoin products saw $1.4 million in outflows, a subtle but significant sign that sentiment may be shifting toward optimism.

Macro Outlook: Interest Rates and Risk Appetite

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, expectations for U.S. rate cuts are growing.

The probability that the Federal Reserve maintains the current 4.25% rate through November has dropped to 8.4%, while chances of a cut to 3.75% or lower have climbed to 53%, up from 38% the week before.

Rate cuts historically benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by increasing liquidity and reducing opportunity costs, meaning macro tailwinds may soon align with crypto market recovery.

Read Also: Is the Crypto Market Reaching Levels on China Ban? A Macro Analysis

Conclusion: A Cautious Rebound, Not Full Recovery

So, is Bitcoin recovering? Yes, but with caveats.

While price has rebounded and institutional flows remain strong, there are still key risks in play: geopolitical flashpoints, technical resistance at ~$103,500, and a fragile macro environment.

Whether Bitcoin can break through the $110,000 level and resume its uptrend remains to be seen.

For now, BTC is trading above its long-term support, institutional money hasn’t left the building, and technical patterns suggest potential for short-term gains. But as always, caution and discipline remain essential in such an unpredictable market.

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FAQ

Q: Why did Bitcoin recover after the weekend sell-off?
A: The recovery was driven by a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran, easing market tensions and restoring investor confidence.

Q: What caused the weekend’s sharp dip in Bitcoin price?
A: A combination of geopolitical risk, particularly U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and mass liquidations of long leveraged positions contributed to the sell-off.

Q: Is the Bitcoin network at risk due to the hashrate drop?
A: Not necessarily. An 8% drop was observed, likely due to temporary curtailments in U.S.-based mining facilities, which are common during extreme weather events.

Q: Are institutions still buying Bitcoin?
A: Yes. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin-focused funds reached $1.1 billion last week, despite short-term volatility.

Q: What technical patterns should traders watch now?
A: Watch for a breakout above $103,500 to confirm a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart.

Q: How do U.S. interest rate expectations affect Bitcoin?
A: Lower rate expectations boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a risk asset. Current projections suggest a growing probability of rate cuts before year-end.