XRP Slides to $1.05 as China's Chip Surge Rattles Asian Markets and FOMC Looms

Bitrue Research Institute analysis shows XRP's pullback mirrors a broader leverage flush driven by macro risk-off, not a fundamental breakdown

Costa Rica, July 28, 2026 — A single IPO in Shanghai sent shockwaves through Asian equity markets on Monday, and by the time trading sessions closed, the ripple had reached crypto markets, pushing XRP down to the $1.05 range and triggering hundreds of millions in liquidations across the broader digital asset space.

The catalyst was CXMT, China's state-backed memory chip manufacturer, whose Shanghai IPO saw shares surge 466% on debut, briefly valuing the company at nearly $550 billion. Alongside reports of Chinese state-backed firms beginning mass production of immersion DUV lithography tools, technology that could significantly narrow the gap with Western semiconductor leaders, the news sparked a sharp reassessment of AI-related equities across Asia. South Korea's KOSPI fell 10.84% in its worst single-day performance in years, with Samsung Electronics dropping 13.39% and SK Hynix falling 14.65%. Japan's Nikkei 225 shed 3.95%, dragged lower by chip and AI-adjacent names. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US fell 2.23% overnight, with Nvidia down approximately 5%.

The crypto market absorbed the blow, but did not escape it.

XRP, which had been ranging between $1.09 and $1.11, dropped sharply to the $1.05–$1.06 zone as the risk-off wave moved through asset classes. The move was amplified by leverage — liquidation heatmap data on Binance shows a prominent cluster of long positions concentrated in the $1.08–$1.11 range, a zone that acted as a magnet for the selloff. As price broke below that band, cascading long liquidations accelerated the move lower, pushing XRP through support before finding a floor near $1.05.

Across the broader crypto market, approximately $600–$700 million in positions were liquidated in a 24-hour window, with more than 80% of those coming from long exposure. Over 140,000 traders were affected. XRP and Bitcoin together accounted for a significant portion of the damage.

According to analysis from Bitrue Research Institute, the nature of the selloff matters as much as the magnitude. On-chain data shows exchange inflows remained mixed-to-negative during the drawdown, meaning coins were largely not moving to exchanges in anticipation of selling — a pattern more consistent with leveraged position liquidation than with long-term holder distribution. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 27, deep in Extreme Fear territory, reflecting sentiment deterioration that has historically preceded recoveries rather than sustained breakdowns.

"The data points to a leverage flush rather than a fundamental unwind," Bitrue Research Institute noted in its analysis. "Long-term holders remain relatively resilient. What we saw on July 28 was short-term traders caught offside by macro news, not a structural shift in conviction among XRP's core holder base."

Bitcoin told a similar story, holding in the $63,200–$63,400 range despite the broader carnage — a figure that represents a 2.5–3% decline from Monday highs near $65,600, far more contained than KOSPI's double-digit loss. The relative resilience across digital assets in the face of a historic single-day Asian equity drawdown is itself a data point worth noting.

What Comes Next: FOMC in Focus

The Federal Reserve's July meeting concludes Wednesday, July 29, with the rate decision due at 2:00 PM ET. With markets already stressed from the Asian equity selloff and AI spending skepticism weighing on sentiment, the Fed announcement represents the dominant short-term catalyst for both crypto and equities.

For XRP specifically, Bitrue Research Institute identifies two near-term scenarios:

Base case — Choppy, two-way volatility into and immediately following the FOMC announcement. A potential liquidity sweep toward the $1.03–$1.05 support zone remains possible before any sustained recovery. If that level holds, the dense overhead liquidation cluster at $1.08–$1.11 becomes the natural target for a short-covering rebound.

Bull case — A dovish Fed surprise or softer-than-expected language on rate trajectory could trigger rapid short covering, pushing XRP back through the $1.08–$1.11 band and potentially toward $1.15+ as macro sentiment stabilizes.

Bear case — Hawkish messaging or deteriorating AI CapEx sentiment compounds the existing pressure, testing lower supports below $1.03.

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows add another layer of complexity. Recent data shows combined outflows of approximately $465 million on July 23–24, with a near-flat reading on July 27. Total ETF AUM across funds remains substantial at $76–79 billion, suggesting institutional conviction has not evaporated, but near-term redemption pressure continues to cap upside.

The Macro Backdrop Reframes the Story

What makes the current environment unusual is the specific nature of the macro trigger. The CXMT IPO and Chinese lithography developments are not transient news — they represent a structural shift in the global semiconductor landscape that markets are only beginning to price. If Chinese firms can meaningfully close the gap in advanced chip manufacturing, the AI CapEx cycle that has driven much of the 2025–2026 equity rally faces a fundamental reassessment.

For XRP, this macro context is simultaneously a headwind and a long-term irrelevance. In the short term, AI CapEx skepticism drives risk-off flows that sweep up all high-beta assets. In the longer term, XRP's utility case — cross-border payments, institutional settlement, regulatory clarity — has no direct connection to semiconductor competition or AI infrastructure spending.

The current pullback, viewed through that lens, represents a macro dislocation rather than an asset-specific deterioration. Clean directional trends in either direction remain lower probability until the Fed catalyst is fully digested and broader risk appetite finds its footing.

About Bitrue: Bitrue is a global cryptocurrency exchange offering spot, leveraged token, staking, and yield products to users across 100+ countries. New users can currently access 6.5% APY on flexible BTC staking for a 60-day promotional period at bitrue.com.

About Bitrue Research Institute: The Bitrue Research Institute delivers independent on-chain analysis and market intelligence for the digital asset ecosystem.

This report is also covered on Cryptovolix, a daily crypto news publication tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, and market moves — with Indonesian-language coverage available at Cryptovolix Indonesia.