XRP ETF Approval Odds at 86%: Ripple's U.S. Bank Status Key?

2025-08-06

The odds for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the United States have hit 86%, according to crypto prediction platform Polymarket.

This sharp increase in confidence arrives alongside Ripple’s formal application to become a U.S. national trust bank, a move that many believe could redefine how XRP fits into the traditional financial system.

Together, these developments are placing XRP in a powerful position at the intersection of digital assets and regulated finance.

The XRP ETF Story

xrp etf approval.

Teucrium’s recent launch of the Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF marked a major step forward for XRP’s presence in the ETF market.

The fund was designed to give investors leveraged exposure to XRP’s price movements and was structured using swap agreements referencing a Swiss-listed XRP ETF. This workaround allowed Teucrium to enter the market ahead of potential spot ETF approvals.

Teucrium CEO Sal Gilbertie cited Ripple’s years of work in improving cross-border payments and positioning XRP as a functional asset rather than a speculative one.

According to Gilbertie, XRP’s alignment with real-world financial use cases, particularly its role as a potential alternative to SWIFT, differentiates it from other digital assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Teucrium’s expertise in derivatives gave it an edge in launching this ETF, with the fund quickly reaching over $300 million in assets under management.

The response from the XRP community has been enthusiastic, signaling strong support for institutional products centered around Ripple’s infrastructure.

SEC Case Closure and the Rise of Institutional Filings

The recent momentum in XRP ETF approval odds can be traced back to March 2025, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially dropped its lawsuit against Ripple.

This case had cast a long shadow over XRP for years, with uncertainty deterring institutional involvement. Once the lawsuit was dismissed, asset managers rapidly began submitting ETF applications.

Notable firms such as Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, CoinShares, and ProShares have filed proposals with the SEC, indicating robust institutional interest.

The growing number of high-quality applications points to increasing recognition of XRP’s potential as a regulated investment vehicle.

Polymarket’s data shows that over $114,000 in wagers have been placed on the ETF outcome, with a historical prediction accuracy of more than 90%.

Market participants now widely expect that the SEC could approve a spot XRP ETF before December 31, 2025, setting the stage for broader adoption.

XRP ETF News Shows Market Infrastructure Is Ready

The case for XRP’s institutional acceptance has been strengthened further by infrastructure developments. In May 2025, the CME Group launched XRP futures ETFs, which attracted more than $542 million in assets within the first month.

Shortly after, ProShares introduced the Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on the NYSE Arca, which performed strongly at launch.

These launches have proven that investor appetite for XRP is not only real but also growing. They also demonstrate that the financial infrastructure required for regulated XRP products is already operational, a factor that could influence the SEC’s final decision.

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Ripple’s Bank Charter Bid: A Strategic Leap Forward

While the XRP ETF narrative is gaining traction, Ripple is advancing on another regulatory front: becoming a U.S. national trust bank.

In a public filing, Ripple revealed Volume 1 of its application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which outlines its plan to form Ripple National Trust Bank.

The bank would not offer traditional services like deposit-taking or consumer loans. Instead, its focus would be on custodial services, stablecoin reserve management, and institutional crypto custody.

This step is designed to help Ripple operate directly under federal oversight, allowing it to pursue a Federal Reserve Master Account, a key element in reducing the cost and time of global payments.

Ripple’s move mirrors similar strategies by other crypto firms such as Circle and BitGo, but it remains one of the most ambitious. The plan could provide Ripple with a direct line into the traditional banking system while still maintaining its blockchain-native advantages.

Banking Sector Resistance and Regulatory Shifts

Despite the excitement, not all stakeholders support Ripple’s application. Traditional banking groups, including the American Bankers Association, have expressed concerns that allowing a crypto-affiliated trust bank could erode consumer protections and upend existing structures.

However, observers note that the OCC under Comptroller Rodney Hood has shown a more progressive stance toward crypto. Regulatory attitudes are shifting, especially as digital assets continue to integrate with mainstream finance.

Historical data shows that the OCC rarely denies trust bank applications outright, suggesting that Ripple’s chances are far from slim.

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FAQ

Does XRP have an ETF?

Yes, Teucrium's XRP ETF is a real thing. According to the firm's president, it's their most successful fund to date, with a huge amount of investor demand.

Can XRP hit $5?

Yes, reaching $5 is seen as a realistic possibility. Analysis based on Fibonacci extensions projects a target of $5.53, and institutional forecasts also consider the $5.00 level to be achievable within the current market cycle.

Can XRP reach $1,000?

The $1,000 price target is a common topic among some crypto analysts. One commentator believes there is a clear path for XRP to gradually climb from $4 to $20, surpass $100, and eventually reach $1,000.