Will the Santa Rally Still Happen in Bitcoin This December 2025?

As the holiday season nears, traders worldwide are asking: “Will Bitcoin experience a Santa Rally in December 2025?” After a sharp November correction that pushed BTC below $94,000, many wonder if the classic year-end surge can still materialize despite strong bearish momentum. 

This article examines the historical Santa Claus Rally, Bitcoin’s December performance, and the current risks threatening a 2025 rally.

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What Is the Santa Claus Rally?

The Santa Claus Rally refers to the tendency of financial markets to rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. The term was created in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average gain of 1.3% during this seven-day window and closed positive 79% of the time. When the rally fails, it has often preceded major downturns.

Bitcoin and the Santa Rally: Historical Performance

Bitcoin has frequently followed a similar seasonal pattern, though with much higher volatility than traditional stocks.

Key December performances (2015–2024):

• 7 out of 10 years ended in the green

• Average monthly return: +9.48%

• Best years: +46% (2017), +36% (2020)

• Worst year: –19% (2021)

These numbers show December remains one of Bitcoin’s strongest months historically, even during broader bear markets.

Why December Often Favors Bitcoin

Several factors typically support year-end Bitcoin rallies:

• Holiday optimism boosts risk appetite

• Year-end bonuses flow into crypto investments

• Tax-loss harvesting creates buying opportunities

• Lower institutional selling pressure during holidays

• Retail traders dominate trading volume in late December

Read Also: Bitcoin DeFi Is Waking Up: Stacks, Runes & On-Chain Liquidity

Current Bearish Pressures on Bitcoin (November 2025)

Despite the favorable seasonal backdrop, Bitcoin faces significant headwinds entering December 2025:

• Price has fallen from $116,000 to around $88,000

• A death cross formed on the daily chart

• Fear & Greed Index sits at 13 (Extreme Fear)

Multiple bullish forecasts, including the famous “El Profesor” Santa Rally plan, were invalidated

Polish analyst Robert Ruszała publicly apologized after his detailed Santa Rally roadmap collapsed within weeks, highlighting how quickly sentiment can shift in crypto.

Can the 2025 Bitcoin Santa Rally Still Happen?

Current technical and sentiment indicators remain bearish, but history shows BTC can reverse sharply.

Potential bullish triggers for December:

• Reclaim of the $95,000–$97,000 zone as support

• Positive reaction to upcoming Fed rate decisions

• Renewed spot ETF inflows

Classic year-end window dressing by institutions

Many analysts now assign only 30–40% probability to a strong Santa Rally, compared to 70%+ expected just a month ago.

Read Also: Will Bitcoin Recover This Week?

How to Approach Bitcoin Trading This December

Seasonal patterns are useful, but never guaranteed, especially in cryptocurrency markets. Smart strategies for the potential 2025 Santa Rally:

• Avoid heavy leverage during extreme fear periods

• Use dollar-cost averaging instead of all-in trades

• Set clear stop-loss levels below $82,000

• Consider profit-taking near $100,000–$105,000 if a rally occurs

• Stay updated with real-time price action and macro news

Long-term holders should treat the Santa Rally as interesting data, not a reason to change core strategy.

Disclaimer: Trading crypto involves high risk and may not suit all investors. Always do your own research, watch for scams, and never share private info. Trade responsibly at your own risk.

Read Also: Top 5 Bitcoin Auction Sites 2025

Conclusion

The Bitcoin Santa Rally is not dead yet, December still carries strong historical upside bias. However, November’s brutal correction and ongoing bearish structure mean any 2025 rally would require a clear trend reversal first.

Start preparing your holiday trading plan today on a trusted platform like Bitrue, offering advanced tools, tight spreads, and secure storage to navigate Bitcoin’s December moves confidently.

FAQ

What technical signal threatens a Santa Rally in 2025?

The daily death cross, showing momentum flipping bearish and slowing recovery odds.

Which price zone must BTC reclaim to flip bullish?

A clean breakout and hold above $95K–$97K could reset market structure.

How much probability do analysts give a Santa Rally now?

Only around 30–40%, down sharply from the earlier 70%+ expectations.

What key support level protects December downside?

Holding above $82K keeps the correction orderly and prevents deeper selloffs.

What macro catalyst could revive December momentum?

A dovish Fed and renewed spot ETF inflows could reignite bullish sentiment.

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