Will Polymarket Become the Largest Legalized Prediction Market in the US?

Prediction markets are having a comeback moment. After years of regulatory drama, one name keeps showing up in headlines and group chats alike: Polymarket. It has big volume, big investors, and now a path to full regulation in the United States.

The natural question follows. Can Polymarket grow into the largest legalized prediction market in the US, not just on crypto Twitter, but under real rules.

Recently, Polymarket received formal approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC that allows it to return to the American market through a fully regulated exchange structure. 

This comes after it bought a CFTC licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse and secured an amended order of designation that permits intermediated access through brokerages and futures firms. 

With that in mind, let us look at what Polymarket is today, what this approval really means, and what still stands between it and the top spot in the US prediction market space.

What Polymarket is and how it reached this point

Polymarket is a crypto based prediction market. Users trade on the outcomes of real events, such as elections, economic numbers, sports, technology launches, and many other topics. Prices move between 0 and 1 dollar and reflect the market’s view of how likely each outcome is. Trades settle in stablecoins, and the system runs on blockchain rails.

Read also : Prediction Markets 2025: $2B Kalshi, AI-Powered Forecasting

The path to US legitimacy has been anything but smooth. A few key moments stand out.

• In 2020 Polymarket launched and grew fast as a global platform for event trading.
• In 2022 it settled an enforcement action with the CFTC, paid a civil penalty, and blocked US users while it worked on compliance.
• It continued to operate for users outside the US and handled billions of dollars in trading around major events, including a US presidential election.
• In 2025 it acquired QCX QCEX, a CFTC registered exchange and clearinghouse, giving it a fully regulated US entity.
• The CFTC then issued an amended order of designation that allows Polymarket US to operate as a designated contract market with intermediated access through futures firms and brokerages.

Right now, Polymarket has three important strengths.

1. Regulated structure
   It can operate in the US under existing futures and derivatives rules rather than in a legal gray zone. The amended order also comes with clear obligations on surveillance, reporting, and risk controls, which should increase trust from both regulators and institutions.
2. Scale and brand
   It is already one of the largest prediction markets globally by volume, with strong brand recognition and a track record of attracting large flows during big political and economic events.
3. Strategic backing
   Large financial players, including the parent company of a major US stock exchange, have announced plans to invest heavily in Polymarket and distribute its event data as sentiment indicators to brokers and traders. This support gives both capital and distribution channels that many rivals do not have.

From a starting point as a crypto experiment, Polymarket now looks a lot more like a formal exchange that happens to focus on event contracts.

Read also : How to Use Prediction Markets to Hedge Crypto in 2025

Can Polymarket realistically become the largest legal US prediction market

To answer this, it helps to look at the wider field. In the US, regulated event based markets sit under futures and derivatives law. That brings Polymarket into the same broad regulatory family as other event platforms that already operate under CFTC approval.

Some of the key pieces in this picture are:

• Existing regulated rivals
  Other US licensed platforms already offer event contracts on topics like macro data, policy decisions, and in some cases elections. They have a head start in US retail access and have recently won court battles that expanded what they are allowed to list.
• Legacy and academic style markets
  Older platforms that used limited no action letters or academic exemptions still attract a dedicated user base, even if their market size is smaller and rules are tighter.
• New entrants
  Fresh startups are now applying for CFTC licenses with business models that plug directly into existing brokerages instead of building consumer platforms. This adds more competition for US order flow.

Against this backdrop, Polymarket has several levers that could help it grow into the largest legalized market in the US.

Here is a simple list of the most important factors.

Intermediated access

The amended CFTC order allows Polymarket contracts to be offered through registered futures firms and brokerage platforms, not only through its own front end. That means a broker could one day list Polymarket markets next to stocks and futures in the same account.

Crypto native infrastructure

It uses blockchain and stablecoins for settlement, which can allow near instant position updates and clear audit trails. For users already comfortable with digital assets, this is a familiar experience.

Data as a product

With a large financial group planning to distribute Polymarket data to clients as sentiment signals, the platform gains an extra role as a source of information, not only as a trading venue. This can attract more professional users and liquidity.

Regulatory clarity after past issues

Previous investigations and penalties have been resolved. The company has added compliance teams and formal processes, and now operates inside a clear rule set rather than pushing boundaries. That stability can make large partners more willing to connect.

The path to “largest” is still not automatic. Being allowed to operate is one thing. Winning users away from rivals and converting general public interest into active trading volume is another.

Read also : Golden Age Prediction Markets: $1.45B Volume Surge in 2025

Using a secure crypto platform for related trading

Many people who like prediction markets also hold or trade crypto assets. If you want to manage coins while you follow platforms like Polymarket, using a secure exchange becomes important. 

Bitrue offers spot, margin, and futures trading for major cryptocurrencies, along with strong security tools such as two factor authentication, cold storage, and KYC and AML procedures.

You can open an account, complete verification, and trade a wide range of coins in one place while keeping a clear overview of your overall risk. If you decide to act on views formed from prediction markets, a platform like Bitrue can be one of the places where you structure your broader crypto portfolio with more control.

Read also : Will Traver Lawrence Become MVP? Odds on Polymarket

What could stop Polymarket from becoming number one

Even with new approval and strong partners, several real obstacles stand between Polymarket and undisputed leadership in the US.

You can group the main risks into three areas.

Regulatory and political risk

Prediction markets sit at the intersection of finance, gambling, and politics. Some see them as useful tools that can produce more accurate forecasts than polls. 

Others worry that betting on elections and policy issues looks too much like gambling or could be used for manipulation. Future changes in law, or shifts in how regulators view event contracts, could limit growth or tighten rules again.

Competition for order flow

Polymarket is not alone. Existing regulated event exchanges, sports books that might expand into policy markets, and new infrastructure providers are all fighting for the same users and the same broker integrations. Some of them have deep experience with US retail customers and established relationships with regulators and policymakers.

User trust and understanding

Many people still do not fully understand how prediction markets work. They may confuse them with casual betting or underestimate the risk of loss. 

Polymarket will need clear education, simple interfaces, and transparent rules to build trust with both first time users and professionals. Past enforcement actions also mean it must show over time that its new compliance framework is solid.

Here is a simple checklist that helps explain what Polymarket needs if it wants to become the largest legalized US prediction market.

• Keep CFTC approval in good standing by meeting all reporting and surveillance duties.
• Win strong broker partners so users can access markets through familiar trading apps.
• Maintain high liquidity in major markets so traders can enter and exit without large slippage.
• Communicate clearly about risk, fees, and rules to build long term trust.
• Offer markets that are meaningful, well designed, and compliant with all limits on topics such as elections and policy.

If it succeeds on most of these points, Polymarket has a realistic chance to be one of the central regulated prediction venues in the US. Whether it becomes the single largest will depend on how fast others move and how comfortable regulators stay with the entire sector.

Conclusion will Polymarket become the largest legalized prediction market in the US

Polymarket has come a long way. It started as a crypto native platform, ran into serious regulatory trouble, then rebuilt itself through a licensed exchange acquisition, new compliance structures, and now fresh approval from the CFTC to offer intermediated access in the US.

On the positive side, it already has large global volume, strong brand recognition, and powerful partners who want to distribute its data. It now sits on a formal legal base that lets American users reach its markets through regulated brokers and futures firms. That is a big step toward mainstream adoption.

On the cautious side, prediction markets remain politically sensitive. Rivals are active and well funded. Regulators can still change their stance on specific event types, especially around elections and policy questions. In that environment, no platform can guarantee long term dominance.

So the honest answer is this. Polymarket has a real shot at becoming one of the main legalized prediction markets in the US and perhaps the largest in time. Whether it reaches that top spot will depend on how well it manages regulation, competition, and user trust over the next few years.

FAQ

What did the CFTC actually approve for Polymarket

The CFTC issued an amended order of designation that allows Polymarket’s US entity to operate as a designated contract market and offer intermediated access through regulated futures firms and brokerages, under full exchange style oversight.

Is Polymarket now fully legal in the United States

Polymarket can now operate within the US as a regulated exchange for approved contracts, under CFTC supervision. It still has to follow strict rules on which markets it lists and how it handles surveillance, clearing, and reporting.

How is Polymarket different from regular sports betting sites

Polymarket focuses on event based contracts that function more like small futures positions on outcomes, often linked to politics, economics, and public events, and now aims to run under derivatives law, not general gambling law.

Who are Polymarket’s main competitors in the US

Its main competitors are other CFTC regulated event exchanges, older academic style prediction platforms, and new startups that want to add prediction markets through broker and exchange integrations.

Does CFTC approval mean Polymarket is risk free for users

No. CFTC approval creates a legal and supervised structure, but users can still lose money on trades and must follow all relevant laws. As with any derivatives style product, careful position sizing and risk awareness are important.