Why Axelar Is Pumping: AXL Price Prediction and Key Catalysts

Axelar (AXL) has recorded a sharp price increase alongside a noticeable jump in trading activity. CoinMarketCap data shows the move is driven by liquidity and market structure rather than changes in token supply or long-term fundamentals.

The following analysis explains what the data actually shows, focusing on volume dynamics, exchange concentration, valuation metrics, and short-term price scenarios.

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AXL Price: Liquidity and Market Structure Behind the AXL Pump

AXL’s 24-hour trading volume rose by roughly 44 percent to about $55 million, while its market capitalization stands near $142 million. This places the volume-to-market-cap ratio at approximately 39 percent.

Historically, ratios above 30 percent indicate short-term speculative inflows and heightened volatility. This suggests the current move reflects aggressive trading activity and rapid price discovery rather than steady accumulation.

Exchange data also shows strong concentration. Around 32 percent of volume comes from Upbit’s KRW pairs, with Binance accounting for roughly 18 percent across USDT and TRY pairs. Such concentration typically produces fast, momentum-driven moves that can reverse unless followed by broader global participation.

Read more: Axelar (AXL) Coin Price Prediction 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028

Valuation Metrics and Supply Conditions

From a structural perspective, Axelar’s valuation metrics help explain why traders rotated into the token. Current data shows total value locked at approximately $168.6 million versus a market cap of about $142 million. This results in a market-cap-to-TVL ratio near 0.84.

For interoperability protocols, ratios below 1.0 indicate the market is valuing the network below the capital already locked in its ecosystem. While this does not guarantee growth, it often attracts short-term rotation capital during periods of Bitcoin consolidation.

Supply data shows the move is not driven by token mechanics. Circulating supply is around 1.08 billion AXL, and fully diluted valuation is roughly $160 million, only modestly above current market cap. There is no evidence of sudden unlocks or supply shocks influencing price action.

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AXL Price Outlook and Scenarios

From a higher-timeframe view, AXL remains deep in a long-term downtrend. The token is trading near $0.13 compared with an all-time high of $2.66, representing a drawdown of roughly 95 percent. The recent move reflects a rebound of about 55 percent from the all-time low near $0.084.

In the short term, elevated volume suggests continued volatility. A likely trading range sits between $0.12 and $0.16, with breakouts requiring sustained daily volume above $40 million to remain credible.

For a medium-term trend shift, the data would need to show persistent volume, a market cap reclaiming levels above $200 million, and a cooling volume-to-market-cap ratio closer to 20 percent. Without these conditions, the move remains a relief rally rather than a confirmed reversal.

Conclusion

AXL’s price increase is primarily driven by a liquidity surge, exchange-specific momentum, and valuation-based rotation. The move is demand-driven rather than caused by supply constraints or protocol changes. Sustainability now depends on whether elevated volume persists beyond short-term speculative flows.

FAQ

Why is Axelar pumping today?

Data shows the move is driven by a sharp increase in trading volume and exchange concentration, not changes in token supply.

Is AXL undervalued based on on-chain data?

AXL’s market cap is currently below its total value locked, which can attract rotation capital but does not guarantee long-term upside.

Is this a trend reversal for Axelar?

No. The price action currently fits a relief rally within a broader long-term downtrend.

What risks should traders watch?

Falling volume, reduced KRW exchange activity, and failure to hold key price ranges increase the risk of consolidation or pullback.

What confirms a stronger AXL recovery?

Sustained high volume, broader exchange participation, and a higher market cap relative to recent levels would be key confirmation signals.