When Will Bitcoin Crash? Analyzing Predictions, Patterns, and Risks

2025-09-08

The question “When will Bitcoin crash?” continues to loom over traders, investors, and economists alike. Bitcoin’s dramatic boom-and-bust cycles have repeatedly tested market confidence, often wiping out billions in value in a matter of months.

Now, economist Henrik Zeberg has issued a stark warning: the crypto market may soon experience a “horrendous crash” following a euphoric peak.

According to Zeberg’s analysis, the crypto market is on an “extreme rally to the Blow-Off Top,” a classic formation before a steep downturn.

He projects a peak valuation of around $12.95 trillion between late 2025 and early 2026, followed by a catastrophic collapse potentially bringing total market value down to $93 billion from the current ~$4 trillion.

This raises urgent questions: are we heading for Bitcoin’s next crash, and what lessons can history teach us?

Henrik Zeberg’s Prediction of a Blow-Off Top

Henrik Zeberg frames today’s crypto rally as part of a textbook bubble cycle, mirroring the dot-com boom and bust. His warning rests on several factors:

Extreme Market Euphoria: Crypto valuations are rising sharply, with investors chasing quick profits.
Technical Formation: A rising wedge pattern, a bearish indicator signaling a potential reversal.
Historical Parallels: Similar euphoric tops occurred in 2017 and 2021, both followed by 70–80% declines.

Zeberg believes Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may still have room to run, offering profit opportunities during the final rally. Yet, he stresses the risk is enormous, as the blow-off top is likely to end in a severe crash.

Bitcoin’s Crash History: Lessons from the Past

2013–2015: Mt. Gox Collapse

Bitcoin surged to over $1,100 in 2013 before the infamous Mt. Gox hack in 2014. The exchange lost 850,000 BTC, triggering a 14-month decline to around $200, marking an 86% loss.

2017–2018: ICO Bubble Burst

After peaking near $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin entered a brutal year-long downturn, hitting $3,200 by December 2018. The fall was fueled by regulatory scrutiny and failing ICO projects.

2021–2022: Market Scandals and Terra Collapse

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of ~$69,000 in November 2021 before cascading scandals and macro headwinds dragged it down to $16,000 by late 2022, a 77% correction.

Patterns across crashes:

Duration: 12–14 months.
Magnitude: 70–86% declines.
Triggers: Hacks, regulatory crackdowns, speculative bubbles, macroeconomic shocks.

This track record suggests that Bitcoin crashes are severe, prolonged, and cyclical, often resetting valuations but eventually paving the way for new highs.

Economic Factors That Could Trigger the Next Bitcoin Crash

Interest Rate Hikes and Fed Policy

When central banks tighten monetary policy, risk assets like Bitcoin lose appeal. Higher interest rates reduce liquidity and increase pressure on speculative markets.

Inflation and Economic Data

Hot inflation reports or strong GDP numbers can fuel expectations of tighter policy, pushing investors out of Bitcoin and back into bonds or cash.

Recession Fears and Risk-Off Sentiment

Economic downturns or global crises often drive investors toward safer assets, making Bitcoin vulnerable to sell-offs.

Regulatory Crackdowns

Uncertainty around stablecoins, exchanges, or taxation can rapidly trigger fear-driven liquidations.

Institutional Selling

Large “whale” sell-offs amplify downward moves, while negative sentiment spreads rapidly through social media and news cycles.

Market Correlation

Bitcoin increasingly tracks the stock market, meaning a crash in equities could drag Bitcoin lower as well.

Exchange and Security Failures

Hacks, outages, or liquidity collapses could again serve as flashpoints for panic selling.

When Will Bitcoin Crash? Timing the Cycle

Based on Zeberg’s forecast, the next major Bitcoin crash could unfold:

Peak Timing: Between late 2025 and early 2026, possibly extending into mid-2026 if macro conditions delay the cycle.
Crash Magnitude: From ~$12.95 trillion in crypto market cap down to as low as $93 billion a wipeout exceeding past declines.
Duration: Likely 12–14 months, consistent with prior cycles.

While the timing isn’t guaranteed, the signals technical, historical, and macroeconomic suggest the market is nearing the final euphoric stage before a downturn.

Will Bitcoin Always Recover After a Crash?

History suggests resilience. After each crash, Bitcoin has returned stronger, breaking past previous highs. But recovery is measured in years, not months, and requires patience.

The question investors must ask isn’t just when will Bitcoin crash but also whether they have the strategy and risk tolerance to withstand the volatility.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s history shows that crashes are inevitable; they are part of its cyclical DNA. Henrik Zeberg’s dire prediction of a catastrophic crash after a euphoric peak in 2025–2026 should serve as a warning, not just a forecast. While opportunities remain during the rally, risks are sky-high, and timing the market remains nearly impossible.

The best strategy may not be to avoid Bitcoin altogether, but to approach it with risk management, awareness of cycles, and a long-term outlook. Investors should brace for volatility, diversify, and stay informed about macroeconomic triggers.

FAQ

When is Bitcoin expected to crash?

Economist Henrik Zeberg predicts a major crash could occur after a peak between late 2025 and early 2026.

How much could Bitcoin fall during the next crash?

Zeberg warns the crypto market could drop from ~$12.95 trillion to as low as $93 billion, a decline sharper than past crashes.

What usually causes Bitcoin crashes?

Triggers include regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic shocks, institutional sell-offs, exchange failures, and speculative bubbles.

How long do Bitcoin crashes last?

Historically, crashes last about 12–14 months, with declines of 70–86% before recovery begins.

Will Bitcoin recover after the next crash?

While history shows Bitcoin has always rebounded to new highs, recovery can take years and is not guaranteed.

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