Stellar (XLM) Crash or Comeback? Golden Cross Teases $0.50 Amid Price Drop!

Stellar (XLM), a cryptocurrency long regarded for its role in simplifying cross-border payments, has entered a critical phase in 2025. As the broader crypto market matures, XLM finds itself under both bullish speculation and bearish technical scrutiny.

From golden cross breakouts to bearish crossovers and SMA breakdowns, Stellar’s trajectory is anything but certain.

This article provides a comprehensive Stellar price prediction by analyzing key technical signals, market sentiment, and the potential for XLM to reach the much-anticipated $0.50 mark.

We also address growing concerns over a Stellar correction, the impact of a golden cross, and whether XLM is under pressure going into the second half of 2025.

Read Also: How High Can Stellar Lumens Go by 2025? A Comprehensive Outlook

Overview of Stellar (XLM)

Stellar is a decentralized open-source blockchain network, created by Jed McCaleb in 2014, with a focus on enabling fast, low-cost international payments.

Its native token, XLM, is used to facilitate transactions and provide liquidity between different currencies on the network.

Key attributes of Stellar include:

1. Fast transaction speed (usually confirmed within seconds).

2. Low fees ideal for remittances and microtransactions.

3. Strong institutional partnerships including IBM and MoneyGram.

XLM Current Market Landscape: A Mixed Bag

The broader cryptocurrency market in 2025 has been characterized by volatility, with institutional adoption slowing and macroeconomic pressures such as inflation and regulatory uncertainty looming large.

While XLM surged 75% in early July, its price has since pulled back, triggering both hope and fear among traders.

Read Also: Can XLM Break $1,000? Or Is It Just Utopia?

XLM Technical Analysis: Warning Signals and Breakout Potential

Source: TradingView

1. Stellar Golden Cross Suggests Uptrend Possibility

Recent technical indicators show a potential golden cross forming on the hourly chart, where the 9-day moving average is set to cross above the 26-day moving average.

This classic bullish signal often precedes a breakout, with XLM to $0.50 seen as a likely short-term target if momentum continues.

2. SMA Breakdown Sparks Stellar Correction Fears

However, on the daily chart, XLM has broken below the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), raising red flags for traders.

A 5.07% intraday drop as of July 7, 2025, has pushed XLM down to $0.42, challenging the support zone. If it breaks below $0.40, a deeper correction could follow.

3. Bearish MACD Crossover and Weak RSI

On July 24, the MACD indicator formed a bearish crossover, indicating a loss in short-term momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below neutral (currently at 48.52), highlighting weakening bullish momentum. These are clear indicators that XLM is under pressure.

Sentiment and Market Activity

Source: The Tradable

1. Weighted Sentiment Turns Negative

Sentiment data from Santiment shows a weighted sentiment score of -0.179, reflecting increasing skepticism from investors. This often correlates with lower trading activity, and in turn, stagnating or falling prices.

2. No Institutional Support Yet

Unlike Ethereum or Bitcoin, Stellar’s correction appears to be technical, with no major on-chain movement or institutional backing to support price recovery.

Notably, the Stellar Development Foundation has made no official comments or interventions during the recent price drop.

Read Also: Is XLM Preparing for a 100% Price Surge?

XLM Price Prediction for 2025: Scenarios to Watch

Source: TradingView

1. Bullish Case: XLM to $0.50 and Beyond

If the golden cross leads to increased momentum, and bullish sentiment returns, XLM could break the $0.50 level, supported by higher volume and increased retail interest. 

Some analysts even predict a push toward $0.70 if market-wide optimism resurfaces.

2. Moderate Case: Consolidation Between $0.42–$0.47

Should Stellar maintain its technical structure and avoid a deeper drop, it may consolidate within the $0.42–$0.47 range.

This could provide a base for future gains, especially if new partnerships or ecosystem developments are announced.

3. Bearish Case: Breakdown Below $0.40

In the event of sustained bearish sentiment and further technical breakdowns, XLM could fall toward the 50-day EMA at $0.39. A drop below that level could invalidate short-term bullish setups and signal the start of a longer correction.

Conclusion: Stellar's Make-or-Break Moment

Stellar is at a crossroads. While technical indicators such as the golden cross suggest a possible breakout, the recent SMA breakdown and bearish MACD crossover have XLM under pressure.

Market sentiment remains cautious, and without clear institutional support or strong on-chain activity, the next move hinges on whether bulls can reclaim dominance.

With crypto volatility at play, investors must watch key support/resistance levels and stay updated on broader market trends. Whether XLM reaches $0.50 or dips below $0.40, the coming weeks will be crucial in defining Stellar's price prediction for 2025.

Follow the Bitrue Blog for the latest ETH, XRP, and XLM crypto news, expert technical analysis, and exclusive market forecasts!

FAQ

What is the Stellar price prediction for 2025?

Depending on market conditions, XLM could trade between $0.40 and $0.70. A bullish breakout may push it past $0.50.

What is a Stellar golden cross, and why does it matter?

A golden cross occurs when short-term moving averages cross above long-term ones, often signaling upward price momentum for XLM.

Why is XLM under pressure now?

Stellar recently broke below the 10-day SMA and showed a bearish MACD crossover, pointing to potential downside risk.

Can Stellar recover from the recent correction?

If it holds above $0.42 and bullish momentum returns, Stellar could regain upward momentum toward $0.50.

Where can I get the latest Stellar crypto news and analysis?

Visit the Bitrue Blog for expert insights, price forecasts, and market updates on XLM and other top cryptocurrencies.