How Will XRP Move This Week? An Analysis

2025-11-10

This week, XRP stands at a pivotal crossroads, caught in the uneasy calm of consolidation. Hovering around $2.32, the token teeters above its critical support at $2.28 a level that has quietly become the market’s line in the sand.

Yet, despite the apparent stability, the undertone is restless. Liquidity is fading, speculative appetite is waning, and traders are questioning whether the next leg will point higher or slip beneath the weight of weak conviction.

Ripple’s ecosystem remains fundamentally strong, but technical and on-chain realities now define the short-term rhythm of XRP’s movement.

Bearish Gravity: Fading Retail Energy and On-Chain Slowdown

XRP’s network growth paints a picture of deceleration. After a brief spike in new wallet creation during late October, new addresses have fallen sharply, signaling that fresh entrants are staying on the sidelines.

This reduction in on-chain engagement typically mirrors declining retail enthusiasm, an essential driver of mid-term rallies. Without new wallets joining and transacting, liquidity tightens and volatility compresses creating the perfect storm for sideways price action.

Meanwhile, daily payment volume has slipped below 1 billion XRP, and overall transaction counts are softening. For an asset that thrives on cross-border utility and remittance volume, this decline suggests that both retail traders and corporate participants are momentarily hesitant.

Long-Term Holders Show Strain: MVRV Ratio Shrinks

The MVRV Long/Short Difference near 3% tells a subtle but important story: long-term holders (LTHs) are watching their paper profits evaporate.

Historically, when this ratio contracts, it signals growing unease among veteran investors many of whom are more likely to sell into minor rallies to protect gains.

If these LTHs begin lightening positions, XRP could face persistent overhead pressure, especially as overall liquidity thins across exchanges.

However, a contrary interpretation exists. Periods of LTH capitulation often precede accumulation by stronger hands, who quietly absorb supply in anticipation of a future recovery. Whether XRP is entering that phase depends on whether it can sustain the $2.28–$2.13 support band through this week’s volatility.

Technical Map: Between Resistance and a Retest

How Will XRP Move This Week? An Analysis

XRP’s chart structure reveals a classic compression zone. The token has attempted to clear $2.36 multiple times, yet each rally stalls before converting that level into support.

A clean breakout and retest above this barrier could catapult XRP toward $2.45 and $2.52, areas that align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its recent swing high.

On the downside, a breakdown below $2.13 would likely trigger stop-loss cascades, with secondary supports resting near $2.00 and $1.93. The broader moving average configuration supports caution: XRP remains below both its 50-day and 200-day MAs, sustaining a technically bearish bias.

Momentum Indicators: Watching for a Reversal Spark

RSI: Floating near 40, the Relative Strength Index signals mild bearishness without entering oversold territory suggesting room for technical rebounds but lacking bullish conviction.
MACD: The histogram remains slightly negative, yet the gap between signal and baseline is narrowing, implying momentum could flip neutral within days.
Volume Profile: Exchange data shows tapering volumes, confirming that traders are largely in “wait-and-see” mode rather than initiating major positions.

Unless a volume surge accompanies a breakout above $2.36, XRP’s near-term path remains neutral-to-bearish with sporadic relief bounces.

On-Chain Health: Key Metrics to Track

New Wallet Creation: A consistent decline warns of reduced network expansion. Recovery above 30k new wallets per day would mark renewed retail engagement.
MVRV Long/Short Difference: Persistent lows around 3% indicate stress among seasoned investors and watch for a rebound toward 5–6% as a sign of stabilization.
Whale Transaction Volume: Large transfers exceeding $100k XRP have slowed. A sudden increase, particularly to exchange addresses, would confirm profit-taking.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Dipping toward neutral levels, this suggests investors are neither euphoric nor despondent of an equilibrium often preceding large moves.
Payment Volume & Active Addresses: Sustained weakness below 1 billion XRP daily correlates with diminished on-chain utility and reduced trading velocity.
HODL Composition: The shrinking share of short-term holders signals fewer speculative flips and more patience but also lower volatility.

Together, these indicators whisper a consistent narrative: the market is cooling, waiting for a trigger.

Macro Correlation: The Ripple Effect Beyond Ripple

XRP’s behavior is also tethered to the wider crypto environment. Bitcoin’s consolidation near $90,000 has muted overall market momentum, while Ethereum’s cooling DeFi activity dampens capital rotation into altcoins.

Institutional flows, tracked via stablecoin inflows and ETF-related sentiment, remain cautious as investors await macro clarity on U.S. rate policies and regulatory shifts.

Historically, XRP’s weekly performance shows a 0.72 correlation with Bitcoin, meaning BTC’s trend direction exerts significant gravitational influence. Unless Bitcoin breaks higher, XRP’s upside potential this week appears constrained.

Still, Ripple’s cross-border payment infrastructure continues to evolve quietly beneath the surface, its ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) partnerships expanding across Asia and Latin America. These developments don’t always translate into immediate price impact, but they reinforce long-term network utility, a stabilizing force amid short-term turbulence.

Market Psychology: The Calm Before Another Pulse

Sentiment indicators across social and derivative markets highlight a phase of emotional neutrality. Funding rates have normalized after mild short squeezes, and open interest remains flat.

This calm environment often precedes sharp directional movement. The question isn’t whether XRP will move, it’s which catalyst will ignite it.

Potential sparks include:

A Ripple partnership announcement tied to institutional settlements.
A sudden BTC breakout above $92k.
Renewed retail participation visible in wallet creation metrics.

Until one of these emerges, XRP’s range between $2.13 and $2.36 will likely define the rhythm of the week.

Strategic Outlook: What to Expect This Week

The current framework points to a cautious but structured scenario:

Bullish Case: Holding above $2.28, flipping $2.36 into support, then targeting $2.45–$2.52.
Neutral Case: Continued range trading between $2.13–$2.36, dominated by low volatility and muted interest.
Bearish Case: Losing $2.13, extending correction toward $2.00 with potential liquidity sweeps below $1.93 before buyers re-engage.

In essence, XRP’s next significant impulse hinges on volume resurgence and renewed investor participation, two ingredients currently missing from the equation.

Final Thought

This week’s XRP outlook is one of fragile equilibrium, a coin suspended between the promise of a rebound and the gravity of caution. Until liquidity returns and network energy reignites, traders may find themselves dancing between patience and pressure, waiting for the next decisive pulse from Ripple’s digital heartbeat.

FAQ

Is XRP bullish or bearish this week?

XRP remains neutral-to-bearish, consolidating within the $2.13–$2.36 corridor amid low participation.

What key level would confirm a bullish reversal?

A sustained breakout above $2.36 with high volume could confirm renewed bullish momentum toward $2.50.

Why is XRP struggling to gain traction?

Weak network activity, declining new wallet creation, and low liquidity inflows are suppressing momentum.

Could XRP fall below $2.00 soon?

Only if selling pressure accelerates and $2.13 breaks decisively; otherwise, support remains resilient near current levels.

What could trigger a short-term rebound?

Stronger whale accumulation, a Bitcoin rally, or improved Ripple adoption headlines could lift sentiment and volume.

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