Polymarket Analysis: Why Volume is Falling Despite 86% US User Growth

Polymarket volume analysis has become one of the more talked about topics in prediction markets, and the reason is simple: international notional volume is falling for the second month in a row, even as US user numbers are jumping fast. 

The platform is going through a strange split moment, with growth on one side of the business and contraction on the other. 

This article walks through the numbers, the competitive backdrop with Kalshi, the new Polymarket USD token, and how traders can stay productive on Bitrue alongside any prediction market activity.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket's international platform processed just under $7.1 billion in May 2026, down from over $9 billion in April and well below the $10.5 billion peak hit in March.
• The US platform is moving the other way, rising to $1.77 billion in May from $1.26 billion in April, with the company reporting 86% growth in new users and 73% growth in active new traders in the 30 days ending 3 June.
• Polymarket recently rolled out a native collateral asset called Polymarket USD, backed 1:1 by USDC, replacing the bridged USDC.e it used before.

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The State of Polymarket Trading Volume

The numbers tell a clear story, and they cut both ways. Polymarket trading volume 2026 has reversed sharply from the trend that defined the second half of 2025. 

The platform's international exchange processed just under $7.1 billion in May, down from more than $9 billion in April. Both figures sit below the March peak of $10.5 billion, which was driven in part by major sporting events including the March Madness college basketball window.

Between August 2025 and March 2026, volumes on Polymarket grew by more than 850%, according to public on chain data. 

That kind of growth is rarely linear, and a pullback after such a steep run is not unusual on its own. The concern for active traders is two consecutive monthly declines, which marks the first sustained slowdown the platform has seen in roughly eight months.

The picture inside the US platform is very different. Volume on the domestic app climbed to $1.77 billion in May from $1.26 billion in April, with the company citing 86% growth in new users and 73% growth in active new traders during the 30 days ending 3 June. 

Polymarket also removed its US waitlist in May, which had previously slowed onboarding after its December soft launch.

There are softer issues sitting in the background as well. The company has had to handle questions about its US management raised in industry reporting, two insider trading incidents tied to its markets, and ongoing debate around how some markets get resolved when an outcome is unclear. 

A spokesperson also pointed to spring technology maintenance that affected throughput during the dip.

Read also: Earn Money from Polymarket: Convert Your Predictions

How Kalshi is Pulling Ahead on Volume

The volume story does not exist in a vacuum. Polymarket vs Kalshi prediction markets has become the headline matchup in the space, and the gap is widening rather than closing. 

Kalshi processed more than $17.9 billion in volume during May, compared with the combined international and US figure for Polymarket at just under $8.9 billion. 

In April, Kalshi reported around $14.8 billion against Polymarket's $10.3 billion. The competitor has now stretched ahead on monthly volume for two consecutive months.

Several factors are in play. Kalshi operates as a CFTC regulated exchange in the US, which gives it a head start with American retail and a smoother path to advertising. 

Sports markets and election style contracts have driven a meaningful share of that growth. Polymarket, by comparison, is rebuilding its US footprint after registering with the CFTC in July 2025, with the full domestic relaunch still in early innings.

On the product side, Polymarket has made its largest infrastructure change since launch. The platform announced its Polymarket USD token on 6 April 2026, a native collateral asset backed 1:1 by Circle's native USDC, with the full cutover going live on 28 April 2026. 

It replaces the bridged USDC.e stablecoin that previously settled trades, alongside a rebuilt trading engine and updated smart contracts. For most users the change is automatic, but bot operators and API traders have had to update their integrations.

The new collateral token is designed to remove dependence on bridge infrastructure, giving Polymarket tighter control over settlement. A separate governance token, called POLY, has been confirmed as planned but does not yet have a public launch date. 

Traders interested in prediction markets should keep both items on their radar through the second half of the year.

Read also: Is Polymarket Still Safe? Manipulation Claims Explained

Where Bitrue Fits Alongside Polymarket

For traders new to the space, how to trade on Polymarket is fairly simple at a high level: create an account, fund it with stablecoins or supported payment methods, browse open markets, and buy yes or no shares at the prices the order book is offering. 

Each market resolves to either $1 or $0 per share depending on the outcome, with all settlement now running through the new Polymarket USD collateral token. 

Bitrue does not list Polymarket positions, but it remains a practical regulated venue for the crypto side of a portfolio that sits alongside any prediction market activity.

Here is how to get started on Bitrue:

1. Visit the Bitrue website or app, create an account, and complete the KYC verification process so your account is fully active.
2. Fund your account by depositing crypto from another wallet or by using a supported fiat on ramp, depending on your region.
3. Browse the markets section to find the asset you want to trade, whether that is a major coin, a stablecoin pair, or a futures contract.
4. Place either a market order for immediate execution or a limit order at your preferred price, and review the fees before confirming.
5. Decide whether to keep your holdings on Bitrue for convenience or move them to self custody once your position is built.

For traders interested in both worlds, the workflow is usually parallel rather than overlapping. Prediction markets sit on one screen for outcome based bets, while a regulated spot and futures venue like Bitrue sits on another for the core crypto portfolio. 

Treating them as separate tools rather than substitutes tends to produce cleaner risk management on both sides.

Read also: How Polymarket Works: An Overview

Conclusion

Polymarket sits in an unusual position. International notional volume is falling at the same time US user growth is jumping, the competitive gap with Kalshi has stretched rather than closed, and a major infrastructure upgrade is still bedding in. 

None of that is a verdict, just the picture the data is showing right now. Traders who follow prediction markets should focus on whether the US growth eventually translates into volume strong enough to offset the international slowdown. 

For the crypto side of any portfolio, Bitrue offers a safer and easier path to trade major assets while the prediction market story keeps developing.

FAQ

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users buy yes or no shares in event outcomes, with each share resolving to either $1 or $0 at settlement based on the result.

Why is Polymarket Volume Falling?

International notional volume has dropped for two straight months in 2026. Reasons cited include normal post peak cooling after a sharp run up, spring technology maintenance, the wider gap with Kalshi, and ongoing market resolution debates.

How is Polymarket Different From Kalshi?

Polymarket is a crypto native, on chain platform that uses stablecoin collateral, while Kalshi is a CFTC regulated US exchange built on traditional rails. Kalshi has led on monthly volume through April and May 2026.

What is the Polymarket USD Token?

Polymarket USD is the platform's native collateral asset, backed 1:1 by Circle's native USDC. It was announced on 6 April 2026, with the full cutover going live on 28 April 2026, replacing the bridged USDC.e stablecoin used previously.

Is Polymarket Available on Bitrue?

No. Polymarket is a separate prediction market platform and is not listed or integrated on Bitrue. Bitrue can be used for spot and futures trading of major crypto assets alongside any prediction market activity.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.