Morgan Stanley Predicts Tokenized Assets Could Hit $3T to $10T by 2030

Morgan Stanley predicts tokenized assets could hit $3 trillion to $10 trillion by 2030, one of the boldest tokenized asset market forecasts yet from a major Wall Street bank. The projection came on October 12, 2026, from Amy Oldenburg, the firm’s head of digital asset strategy, during her remarks at the TOKEN2049 conference. 

This article explains what was actually said, how it differs from the bank's earlier $2.3 trillion base case, how large the market is today, and what could slow it down. Figures are attributed so you can judge them yourself.

Key Takeaways

• Morgan Stanley's Amy Oldenburg said tokenized real-world assets will land in a $3 trillion to $10 trillion range by 2030, up from roughly $39 billion today.

• The bank's earlier research with Oliver Wyman set a lower base case of $2.3 trillion, driven mostly by collateral and treasury use, not by retail investing.

• The forecast is a projection, not a market reading. Regulation, liquidity and product supply will decide whether it holds.

What Did Morgan Stanley Predict About Tokenized Assets?

The $3 Trillion to $10 Trillion Range

Oldenburg told The Block that the market would definitely sit within that range, and she called the outlook certain. She pointed to rising institutional attention and described a self-reinforcing cycle: more tokenized products attract institutions, which justifies more infrastructure and more products.

She named private shares, structured notes and investment funds as likely candidates for tokenization. Institutional markets, she said, are showing clear fear of missing out, a point reported by Crypto Briefing.

How It Differs From the $2.3 Trillion Base Case

In September 2026, a Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman report titled "Breaking From the Pack: The Race for Above-Market Growth" projected about $2.3 trillion by 2030 in its base case. It also modeled about $1.1 trillion in a limited-adoption scenario and about $5.5 trillion in a broad-adoption scenario.

So the new $3 trillion to $10 trillion range sits above the base case, and its top end exceeds the report's broad scenario. The GMGN reviewed do not describe it as a new published report. It is a spoken projection from a senior executive.

Tokenized Assets in Plain English

A tokenized asset is a digital token on a blockchain that represents ownership of a real-world asset, such as a US Treasury bill, a fund share or a private company stake. The token can move faster and more flexibly than the paper or database records behind traditional assets.

Think of it as a digital receipt that can be transferred in minutes, around the clock, with the rules built in. The asset itself, such as a bond, stays the same. What changes is how it is recorded, moved and used as collateral.

Key Entities Behind the Forecast

Morgan Stanley's Own Build-Out

Morgan Stanley is building proprietary wallet infrastructure for clients who hold tokenized assets, and it runs a Digital Asset Lab to test new technology before production. Crypto.news also reports that the OCC granted preliminary conditional approval on June 18 for Morgan Stanley Digital Trust, a proposed national trust bank.

Tokenized equity trading on the bank's alternative trading system has slipped to Q1 2027, from the second half of 2026 indicated earlier. Oldenburg said the bank needs more tokenized offerings and institutional demand first.

How Big Is the Tokenized Asset Market Today?

According to RWA.xyz data cited by media, tokenized real-world assets excluding stablecoins totaled about $38.63 billion on October 1 and about $39.19 billion on October 12, 2026.

By simple math, reaching $3 trillion means roughly 77 times today's size, and $10 trillion means about 255 times. Coingape reported the same 255-fold gap for the high end.

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Why Is Morgan Stanley Investing in Tokenization?

The September report says most growth should come from institutional collateral and treasury uses, not from tokenized investment products. Collateral mobility alone accounts for about $1.7 trillion of the base case, with about $400 billion from reserve and treasury management.

Today, cash, Treasuries and money market funds sit across many custodians, so moving them can take hours or days. Tokenized versions could move almost in real time, which could reduce pre-funding and idle liquidity buffers.

Competitive Pressure and Efficiency

Oldenburg also pointed to a flood of industry announcements and a fear of being left behind. Tokenizing private shares and structured notes could cut paperwork and simplify ownership and transfers.

Citi research reported by crypto.news adds context: 77% of surveyed institutions expect to use tokenized collateral in 2026.

Interpretation Cheat Sheet: How to Read These Numbers

A few reading tips:

• Projections are scenarios, not guarantees, and ranges this wide signal high uncertainty.

• Ignore headlines that mix up the base case with the new range.

• Watch real milestones, such as the DTCC service launch and Morgan Stanley's Q1 2027 equity target.

What Could Slow the Forecast Down?

The Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman report is candid about limits. Tokenized funds carry a slight fee premium over comparable traditional products, so cost savings are unlikely to drive early adoption. The market is also fragmented across blockchains, and secondary market liquidity is thin.

In private markets, tokenization cannot create buyer demand, reliable valuations or liquidity on its own. The base case also assumes supportive regulation, planned infrastructure and continued industry investment.

How Can Investors Follow Tokenized Assets?

You do not need to bet on a $10 trillion outcome to take an interest. If you explore tokenized assets, a careful routine helps:

• Identify the issuer and the real asset behind the token.

• Check which blockchain it runs on and who can hold or redeem it.

• Compare liquidity, fees and redemption terms with the traditional version.

• Confirm that the product is available in your jurisdiction.

• Keep position sizes small and track official announcements.

Following the data from sources such as RWA.xyz also helps you separate real growth from hype.

Summary

Morgan Stanley's forecast shows how seriously Wall Street now treats tokenization. The $3 trillion to $10 trillion range is a bold marker, while the earlier $2.3 trillion base case is the more grounded anchor. Both depend on collateral, cash management and institutional adoption.

Today's market is under $40 billion, so the road ahead is long. The signals worth watching are product launches, regulation and the DTCC service in late October. Treat the range as a possibility to monitor, not a promise.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.

FAQ

What is the market size of tokenized assets by 2030?

Morgan Stanley's Amy Oldenburg expects $3 trillion to $10 trillion. The bank's earlier base case with Oliver Wyman was about $2.3 trillion.

How big will the RWA market be in 2030?

It depends on the source. Scenarios range from about $1.1 trillion to $5.5 trillion in the report, and up to $10 trillion in Oldenburg's range.

Who is Amy Oldenburg at Morgan Stanley?

She is Morgan Stanley's head of digital asset strategy. She gave the $3 trillion to $10 trillion outlook at TOKEN2049 on October 12, 2026.

What is the Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman report?

It is a September 2026 asset and wealth management report called "Breaking From the Pack." It projected about $2.3 trillion in tokenized assets by 2030 in its base case.

Why is Morgan Stanley investing in tokenization?

The bank sees large potential in collateral mobility, treasury management and efficiency gains, and it faces rising institutional demand and competition.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.