"No One Is Using Ethereum": Why Kyle Samani Predicts SOL Will Overtake ETH

Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani just made one of the boldest calls of his career: SOL will overtake ETH's market capitalization "this market cycle," and, in his words, "today, no one really uses Ethereum." 

It's a striking claim from a longtime Solana bull with real capital riding on the outcome and the data backing it up is genuinely mixed. Here's exactly what Samani said, and what the numbers actually show on both sides.

Key Takeaways

• Kyle Samani predicted SOL's market cap will surpass ETH's "this market cycle," telling Cointelegraph on September 21, 2026 that companies will increasingly default to Solana because it's "the most functional network" for consolidating operations.

• Solana currently leads Ethereum L1 in monthly fees and weekly active addresses $23 million vs. $12.6 million in 30-day fees, and roughly 29.84 million vs. 2.46 million weekly active addresses, according to DefiLlama data cited in coverage of Samani's comments.

• Ethereum maintains a large lead in capital-based metrics DeFi TVL (including Layer 2s) sits at roughly $80-123 billion versus Solana's $8-12 billion, and on-chain stablecoins are about $163 billion on Ethereum versus $15.2 billion on Solana.

What Kyle Samani Actually Said

Speaking on Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets on September 21, 2026, Samani made three core claims:

On Ethereum usage: He argued Ethereum's continued relevance rests almost entirely on two things: the stablecoins already parked on the network, and stablecoin loans collateralized by ETH rather than genuine ongoing activity. His stated view was that real usage has been shifting to Solana.

On ETH's valuation: Samani called Ethereum's roughly $300 billion market cap's value accrual "questionable," adding that the network "is not growing at all." He said he doesn't understand why investors would hold ETH at current levels when he sees more reasonably priced opportunities elsewhere.

On the flippening itself: He predicted more crypto companies will shift their default infrastructure to Solana over time, describing it as the network that makes it easiest for firms to consolidate their operations, and said this trend would eventually push SOL's market cap past ETH's within the current cycle.

Why Samani's Words Carry Extra Context

Two pieces of background are worth knowing before weighing the prediction itself.

First, Samani has been one of Solana's most consistent public advocates for years, and Multicoin Capital which he co-founded and led as managing partner for a decade was an early Solana investor, leading some of its first funding rounds back in 2018. 

SOL has reportedly been a core holding in the firm's portfolio ever since, and Multicoin managed roughly $5.9 billion in assets as of a mid-2025 disclosure. Any prediction Samani makes about SOL comes from someone with direct, disclosed financial exposure to the outcome.

Second, this is Samani's first major public statement since stepping down as Multicoin's managing partner in February 2026, a move he called "bittersweet" at the time. He reportedly posted, then quickly deleted, a message suggesting he'd lost faith in the broader Web3 and dapp vision he once believed in. 

He returned to a public crypto role in September 2026, joining the US board of directors at trading platform Backpack.

Read Also: Solana AI Trading: How AI Analyzes SOL Markets

The Data That Supports Samani's Case

Several metrics genuinely back up the "Solana usage is winning" argument:

• Fee generation: Over the trailing 30 days, Solana generated roughly $23 million in on-chain fees, ranking fourth among all blockchain networks, compared to Ethereum L1's roughly $12.6 million, ranking sixth, according to DefiLlama data.

• Active addresses: Solana's weekly active addresses were reported at approximately 29.84 million, roughly 12 times Ethereum's 2.46 million.

• DEX trading volume: Solana's weekly DEX volume was estimated around $11.5 billion, ahead of Ethereum's roughly $7.6 billion.

• Staking yield: Solana's staking APY (including MEV-related rewards) has been reported in the 4.2%-9% range, versus Ethereum's roughly 3%-5% a meaningful difference for yield-focused holders.

If "usage" is defined narrowly as raw on-chain activity transactions, active wallets, trading volume the data genuinely favors Solana right now.

The Data That Complicates Samani's Case

At the same time, several other metrics tell a very different story, particularly around where capital actually sits:

• DeFi TVL: Ethereum's Layer 1 DeFi TVL alone is estimated around $55.6 billion, and combined with its Layer 2 ecosystem, roughly $80-123 billion compared to Solana's estimated $8-12 billion, a gap of 7-10 times.

• Stablecoins: Ethereum hosts an estimated $163 billion in on-chain stablecoins, compared to Solana's roughly $15.2 billion. Ethereum's 2025 stablecoin settlement volume reportedly exceeded $18.8 trillion for the year.

• Institutional and RWA infrastructure: BlackRock's tokenized fund BUIDL (roughly $2.87 billion) is primarily deployed on Ethereum. The SEC's recently issued "innovation exemption" for tokenized stocks requires use of a public blockchain, a framework under which Ethereum and Circle's Arc are currently viewed as leading compliant options.

• Developer ecosystem: Ethereum reportedly has around 31,869 active developers, compared to Solana's roughly 17,708 about 1.8 times more, with Solidity's tooling maturity and community size still cited as an advantage.

• Price performance: Over the past month, ETH rose roughly 30% while SOL rose about 34% the two have moved in close lockstep, leaving limited outperformance either way. Over the past year, ETH fell approximately 45% while SOL fell about 59%, meaning SOL actually experienced the deeper drawdown of the two.

The Market Cap Math Behind the Prediction

Source: coinmarketcap

This is worth stating plainly: as of the data reviewed, SOL's market capitalization sits around $68 billion against Ethereum's roughly $293 billion. For Samani's flippening prediction to play out, SOL's market cap would need to grow roughly fivefold, Ethereum's would need to shrink substantially, or some combination of both would need to happen a significant relative move by any measure, even accounting for how volatile crypto valuations can be within a single cycle.

Read Also: Solana AI Trading Bot: Automated SOL Momentum

The Core Tension: Usage vs. Capital

TechFlow's own analysis of Samani's comments captured the central tension well: his argument rests on the idea that capital eventually follows users. Solana's lead in raw activity metrics is a documented fact in the data reviewed here. 

Whether that activity lead can translate into the kind of sustained institutional capital migration needed to actually close a roughly $235 billion market cap gap is the open question and it's one the current data doesn't resolve either way.

It's also worth noting that "usage" itself is being defined differently by each side of this argument. Samani's framing centers on transactional activity and developer/company preference. 

The counter-data centers on capital accumulation, stablecoin settlement, and institutional infrastructure, a different, and in some ways more capital-intensive, definition of what makes a network dominant.

What to Watch Going Forward

Rather than predicting an outcome, a few concrete indicators would help clarify which narrative is gaining ground over time:

• Whether Solana's DeFi TVL and stablecoin supply start closing the gap with Ethereum, rather than just leading on transaction count and fee generation.

• Whether more institutional products (tokenized funds, RWA infrastructure) choose Solana over Ethereum or Circle's Arc, given the current compliance landscape favors the latter two.

• Whether the fee and active-address gap widens or narrows in DefiLlama's ongoing tracking, since this is the strongest current data point in Samani's favor.

• Relative price performance over a longer window, since the past year's data shows SOL underperforming ETH on a percentage basis despite the usage lead.

Track SOL's Price Directly

If you want to follow SOL's price as this debate plays out, the SOL price page on Bitrue shows live market data, and Bitrue's how-to-buy guide for SOL walks through the process if you're new to acquiring the token.

Read Also: Solana Launches Stocklana, a Hackathon Dedicated to Tokenized Stocks

Conclusion

Kyle Samani's prediction that SOL will flip ETH's market cap this cycle is a bold, high-conviction call from someone with real financial exposure to being right. The data genuinely supports part of his argument Solana does lead on transaction-level usage metrics right now. 

But the broader picture is more complicated than his comments suggest: Ethereum retains a commanding lead in the capital-intensive metrics DeFi TVL, stablecoin supply, institutional tokenization infrastructure that have historically mattered most for a network's aggregate valuation.

Whether Solana's usage advantage eventually pulls capital along with it, as Samani's thesis requires, or whether Ethereum's deeper capital base and institutional positioning prove more durable, isn't something the current data settles either way. 

It's a genuinely open question worth tracking through the metrics above, rather than a foregone conclusion in either direction.

FAQ

What did Kyle Samani say about Ethereum? 

Samani said "today, no one really uses Ethereum," arguing the network's relevance rests mainly on existing stablecoin holdings and ETH-collateralized stablecoin loans, and called its value accrual at a roughly $300 billion valuation "questionable."

Will Solana really overtake Ethereum's market cap? 

It's genuinely uncertain. Solana currently leads on activity-based metrics like fees and active addresses, but Ethereum holds a large lead in capital-based metrics like DeFi TVL and stablecoin supply. SOL's market cap would need to grow roughly fivefold relative to ETH for the prediction to play out as stated.

Is Kyle Samani a neutral source on this prediction? 

No, and he doesn't claim to be Samani co-founded Multicoin Capital, an early and major Solana investor, and has held a long-disclosed position in SOL. His prediction should be read with that financial interest in mind.

What is the biggest advantage Ethereum still holds over Solana? 

Ethereum holds a substantial lead in capital accumulation roughly 7-10 times more DeFi TVL and about 10 times more on-chain stablecoins than Solana, along with a larger developer ecosystem and a stronger current position in regulated, institutional tokenization infrastructure.

What is the biggest advantage Solana holds over Ethereum right now? 

Solana currently leads in raw network usage: more monthly fee revenue, significantly more weekly active addresses, and higher weekly DEX trading volume than Ethereum's Layer 1, according to DefiLlama data cited in coverage of this story.

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