Hyperliquid (HYPE) Vesting Schedule: Price Targets for Q1 2026

Hyperliquid is approaching another important token distribution event as core contributor HYPE tokens begin unlocking on a recurring monthly schedule. The upcoming January payout, while modest relative to total supply, arrives at a sensitive moment for price structure and market sentiment.

With HYPE trading near $26 and well below its all time high, investors are closely watching whether these vesting events will create sustained sell pressure or remain a manageable liquidity event. Unlike abrupt cliff unlocks, Hyperliquid’s distribution is designed to be gradual, but even small recurring emissions can shape short term price trends.

Understanding how this vesting schedule interacts with current market conditions is essential for evaluating realistic HYPE price targets in Q1 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.2 million HYPE tokens are set to be distributed to team members in January
• Core contributors control roughly 23.8% of total HYPE supply under multi year vesting
• More than 61% of total HYPE supply remains locked
• Monthly unlocks introduce steady but predictable sell side risk
• Price structure remains weak but not broken

Understanding the Hyperliquid HYPE Vesting Schedule

Hyperliquid launched HYPE through a high profile community airdrop in late 2024, combined with a long term allocation for core contributors. Approximately 237 million HYPE tokens were reserved for team members under a one year cliff followed by a multi month vesting schedule.

The January distribution of 1.2 million tokens represents the second major payout to contributors after the initial November allocation. According to the team, future distributions are expected to occur on the 6th of each month, although the exact vesting curve is not strictly linear.

This structure reduces the risk of sudden supply shocks but creates a recurring test for liquidity. Markets tend to price in predictable emissions, but sentiment can still deteriorate if unlocks coincide with weak demand.

Read Also: Hyperliquid Perpetual Assets Guide

Current HYPE Supply and Circulation Context

HYPE has a capped supply of just under 1 billion tokens. As of early January 2026, roughly 339 million tokens are circulating, meaning the majority of supply remains locked.

This matters because circulating supply growth is incremental rather than explosive. Each monthly unlock increases float gradually, allowing the market time to absorb new supply.

However, the cumulative effect over several months can still weigh on price if demand growth does not keep pace.

HYPE Price Action and Technical Structure

HYPE is currently trading around $26, down more than 55% from its peak near $59 in late 2025. Price action over recent weeks has been choppy, with lower highs and fading momentum.

The Relative Strength Index sits in the mid 30s, signaling weak but not extreme oversold conditions. MACD remains negative, suggesting downside momentum has not fully reversed.

Key technical support lies near the $25 level. A sustained break below could expose downside toward $22 to $23. On the upside, resistance remains heavy between $28 and $30, an area where prior distribution occurred.

Will Team Unlocks Trigger Selling Pressure

The critical question is not the size of the unlock, but the behavior of recipients.

Team members often sell a portion of unlocked tokens to cover taxes, living expenses, or diversification. However, they also tend to retain exposure if long term conviction remains strong.

The January unlock, valued at roughly $31 million, is small relative to daily trading volume, which often exceeds $200 million. This suggests the market can absorb the supply if selling is staggered.

Risk increases if multiple months of unlocks coincide with broader market weakness.

Read Also: Hyperliquid Just Passed GMX in Open Interest – Here's Why

Hyperliquid Fundamentals Still Support Long Term Value

Despite price softness, Hyperliquid remains the largest decentralized perpetuals exchange by cumulative volume. Its fully on chain order book and zero gas fee model continue to differentiate it from competitors.

Although rivals have gained market share recently, Hyperliquid still processes significant trading activity and retains a loyal user base.

The proposed burn of HYPE tokens sent to the Assistance Fund also introduces a long term deflationary element, partially offsetting vesting emissions.

HYPE Price Scenarios for Q1 2026

Several outcomes are plausible over the next quarter.

In a bearish scenario, repeated unlocks combined with weak market sentiment push HYPE below $25, with downside extending toward $20 if support fails.

In a base case scenario, price consolidates between $24 and $30 as unlocks are absorbed and broader crypto markets stabilize.

In a bullish scenario, improved market conditions and renewed DeFi inflows drive HYPE back above $30, with momentum targeting the $35 to $40 range.

The base case currently appears most likely given neutral funding rates and stable spot liquidity.

Broader Market Context Matters

HYPE does not trade in isolation. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $90,000 and Ethereum’s relative strength provide a supportive backdrop for high beta assets.

If risk appetite improves in Q1, unlock related selling pressure may be quickly absorbed. Conversely, a market wide drawdown would magnify the impact of vesting.

Monitoring funding rates, open interest, and spot volume will be key to assessing real time risk.

Final Thoughts

Hyperliquid’s vesting schedule introduces a predictable source of supply, but not an existential threat. The January unlock is meaningful, yet manageable within current liquidity conditions.

For Q1 2026, HYPE price action is likely to be range bound rather than explosive. Long term holders should focus less on single unlock events and more on adoption trends, protocol revenue, and competitive positioning.

The true test will come not from one payout, but from how the market handles repeated monthly distributions over time.

Read Also: Hyperliquid Recovers 8%: Key Support Levels Explained

FAQs

How many HYPE tokens are unlocking in January 2026?

Approximately 1.2 million HYPE tokens are scheduled to be distributed to core contributors.

Does Hyperliquid have a fixed vesting schedule?

Distributions occur monthly, but the vesting is not strictly linear according to the team.

Why is HYPE price down recently?

Price weakness reflects broader market cooling and anticipation of recurring token unlocks.

Can HYPE recover in Q1 2026?

Recovery is possible if market conditions improve and unlock selling remains limited.

Is Hyperliquid still the largest perps DEX?

Yes, Hyperliquid remains the largest decentralized perpetuals exchange by cumulative volume.