How to Bet on Hong Kong vs India: A Guide on Creating Markets on Polymarket

2025-06-11

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market protocol that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events including sports, politics, and current affairs. Unlike traditional betting platforms, Polymarket operates transparently on the blockchain and derives prices from user-driven supply and demand.

In this guide, we’ll walk you through how to propose and engage in a prediction market for a high-stakes event such as the Hong Kong vs India sports match.

Whether you're a seasoned trader, sports enthusiast, or blockchain believer, this article explains how to get involved in creating, trading, and interpreting markets for this event using Polymarket’s unique market structure.

What Is Polymarket and How Does It Work?

Polymarket is built on blockchain infrastructure and enables users to buy and sell shares in possible outcomes of future events. Each market has defined outcomes, usually binary (YES/NO) and share prices reflect the collective probability assigned by traders.

For example, if the market is titled "Will India win against Hong Kong?", and YES shares are trading at $0.70, the market is implying a 70% probability that India will win.

Key features of Polymarket include:

Decentralized Trading: No centralized house sets odds. Instead, traders do via a transparent order book.
Price-as-Probability Model: Share prices represent perceived likelihoods.
Smart Contract-Backed Resolution: Payouts are automated based on predefined resolution sources.

With these mechanics in place, let’s explore the steps to create and trade on a Hong Kong vs India market.

Step 1: Propose a Market – You Can’t Just Create One

Unlike open protocols where anyone can deploy a market, Polymarket has a curated system. You must submit a proposalto the Polymarket team for a new market to be listed.

How to Submit a Market Proposal:

Market Title: Choose a clear and concise title like “Who will win the Hong Kong vs India match?”
Defined Outcomes: Make it binary (e.g., "Hong Kong wins" = YES, "India wins" = NO) or ternary if a draw is possible and supported.
Resolution Source: Specify how the outcome will be determined—such as ESPN, official cricket boards, or FIBA.
Justify Market Demand: Demonstrate the relevance of the match, such as large fanbase or trending news, to show why this market would attract participants.

Submit your proposal via:

The #market-suggestion channel in Polymarket’s official Discord, or
Tagging @Polymarket on Twitter/X with your idea and rationale.

If approved, Polymarket's operations team creates and lists the market, ensuring it's well-structured and resolvable.

Step 2: How Are Prices Set on Polymarket?

Unlike sportsbooks that set odds internally, Polymarket relies on a decentralized order book. Prices are not fixed but emerge naturally from buyer and seller interactions.

Here's How It Works:

No Initial Price: When a market is listed, no price is pre-assigned. It begins with zero shares.
Traders Place Limit Orders: For example, a user may place a buy order for YES shares at $0.55, implying a 55% chance of Hong Kong winning.
Matching Orders Set the Price: When another trader places a corresponding NO order at $0.45, the orders match (because $0.55 + $0.45 = $1.00), and a trade occurs.
Market Price Emerges: This first trade sets the initial market price, and subsequent trades shape the real-time price.

This creates a transparent price discovery process where the price is always the result of collective trader sentiment.

Step 3: Interpreting the Prices

Prices on Polymarket function as live indicators of probability, driven by the "wisdom of the crowd."

Key Concepts:

Price = Probability: If YES is trading at $0.37, the market gives Hong Kong a 37% chance of winning.
Bid-Ask Spread: The visible price is usually the midpoint between the highest bid and the lowest ask.
Price Volatility: Like in crypto or equities, prices on Polymarket can move rapidly in response to news, injuries, or geopolitical updates.
Wide Spreads: If the bid-ask spread exceeds $0.10, Polymarket displays the last traded price instead of the midpoint to reduce misinformation.

This dynamic ensures markets stay responsive to real-world developments, not locked odds.

Step 4: Placing Your Bets (Buying Shares)

Once the market is live, any user can begin trading. Here's how you can bet:

Buy YES Shares: If you believe Hong Kong will win, you can buy YES shares at their current price.
- For example, buying 10 YES shares at $0.37 would cost you $3.70.
- If Hong Kong wins, you receive $10.00 upon market resolution—a profit of $6.30.
Buy NO Shares: If you're confident India will win, you buy NO shares. If India wins, your shares pay out at $1.00 each.
Sell Anytime: You can sell your shares before the match concludes to lock in profits or mitigate risk.
- For example, if YES shares rise from $0.37 to $0.65, you can sell for profit without waiting for match resolution.

Polymarket doesn't use leverage or complex margin systems, making it intuitive and capital-efficient for casual users.

Step 5: Market Resolution and Payouts

Once the match concludes, Polymarket resolves the market based on the predefined resolution source.

If the outcome is clear: For example, India wins 2–1, the market will resolve in favor of NO.
Smart Contract-Driven Payouts: The winning shares automatically pay out $1.00 each to holders.
Timeframe: Resolution typically occurs within 24–48 hours post-event, barring disputes.

If the resolution source fails or is ambiguous, Polymarket uses arbitration protocols to ensure fair results.

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Benefits of Using Polymarket for Sports Betting

Transparent Odds: Prices are crowdsourced, not manipulated by bookmakers.
Liquid Trading: Traders can exit or enter positions at any time.
Trustless Settlement: Blockchain ensures funds are secured and payouts are verifiable.
Data-Driven Insight: Price trends reflect real-world sentiment shifts.

Compared to centralized sportsbooks, Polymarket empowers traders with decentralized infrastructure and clearer incentive structures.

Final Thoughts

Polymarket revolutionizes how we bet on events by turning predictions into liquid, tradable assets. Betting on a match like Hong Kong vs India isn’t just a wager, it’s a market-driven expression of probability, refined by thousands of traders.

To summarize:

Propose your market to the Polymarket team.
Understand how prices form from matched orders.
Trade based on sentiment and real-time updates.
Cash out or hold your shares depending on confidence.
Get paid when the correct outcome is confirmed.

For sports fans and traders alike, Polymarket provides a unique, decentralized experience that combines prediction with profitability.

FAQs

Q: Can I directly create a market on Polymarket?
A: No. You must propose a market to the Polymarket team via Discord or Twitter. They curate and create the market if it meets resolution and demand standards.

Q: How are odds set for the Hong Kong vs India match?
A: Odds are derived from user trades. When YES and NO share prices sum to $1.00, the market clears at that point, and the price becomes the implied probability.

Q: How do I win money on Polymarket?
A: If you buy shares in the correct outcome (e.g., YES for a Hong Kong win), you receive $1.00 per share if that outcome occurs.

Q: What happens if the match gets canceled or disputed?
A: Polymarket’s smart contracts refer to a trusted resolution source. If it’s unclear, the dispute resolution mechanism will kick in, possibly leading to refunding or adjusted outcomes.

Q: Where can I get started?
A: Visit https://polymarket.com to view live markets, join their Discord, or follow them on Twitter/X to submit proposals.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.

Polymarket

Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute financial or investment advice.

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