How the Upcoming CONX Unlock Could Affect Price — Analysis & Key Signals

Connex is preparing for a scheduled CONX token unlock on February 15, 2026, releasing approximately 1.32 million tokens. This represents roughly 1.56% of its released supply and introduces a potential increase in circulating liquidity.

With CONX currently trading near $11.33 and showing mixed technical signals, traders are closely watching whether the unlock will trigger short-term volatility or remain largely priced in.

Key Takeaways

• The February 15, 2026 unlock will release about 1.32M CONX, increasing circulating supply modestly.
• Impact depends heavily on liquidity depth and trading volume, which currently appears thin.
• Key support sits near $10.80 to $11.00, while resistance remains around $12.50.

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CONX Token Unlock Overview

The upcoming CONX unlock February 15, 2026 event will distribute tokens primarily from ecosystem and community allocations.

Because this unlock is scheduled and transparent, markets often anticipate it in advance. However, actual price impact depends on whether recipients immediately sell or hold.

A 1.56% circulating supply increase is moderate in size. It does not drastically alter fundamentals but can affect short-term price stability in low-liquidity environments.

Read Also: GAL Token Unlock: Will It Impact Current Price Surge?

Current Market Structure and Liquidity Conditions

Connex is trading around $11.33, significantly below its all-time high of $147.32. The price chart shows volatile swings between $10.80 and $12.50 in recent sessions. RSI is hovering around mid-range levels near 45, indicating neutral momentum.

MACD shows slight bearish crossover tendencies, suggesting consolidation rather than strong upward continuation. However, reported 24-hour volume appears extremely thin, increasing the probability of price swings during supply events.

Connex Unlock Event Impact Scenarios

The Connex unlock event impact can be broken into three potential scenarios.

First, a neutral scenario where tokens are absorbed gradually without immediate sell pressure. In this case, price may consolidate between $10.80 and $12.00.

Second, a bearish scenario where unlocked tokens enter the market quickly. Given thin liquidity, this could push price below $10.80 and test psychological support at $10.00.

Third, a bullish surprise scenario where unlock recipients hold or stake tokens. In this case, limited supply shock combined with speculative demand could trigger a rebound toward $12.50.

CONX Circulating Supply Increase Analysis

The CONX circulating supply increase remains modest relative to the maximum supply of 100 million tokens. With a self-reported circulating supply of roughly 1.15 million tokens prior to unlock, incremental increases can meaningfully shift float dynamics.

Float expansion matters more than total supply. If daily volume remains near zero or thinly traded, even small unlocks may amplify volatility.

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Token Unlock Schedule and Long-Term Effects

Connex tokenomics unlock schedules include staged releases for ecosystem, foundation, marketing, and team allocations. Because these unlocks are part of a recurring schedule, markets may already price future supply increases.

Repeated unlock events can create a structural overhang if demand does not expand proportionally. For sustainable price growth, ecosystem usage and token utility adoption must offset supply growth.

Technical Levels to Monitor

Support levels currently cluster between $10.80 and $11.00. A decisive breakdown below $10.80 could accelerate selling toward $10.00. Resistance remains near $12.50, which has capped recent upward moves. 

Until CONX reclaims and holds above $12.50, bullish continuation remains limited. Short-term volatility is expected around the unlock date.

CONX Price Prediction Unlock Outlook

Short-term price prediction surrounding unlock events is inherently probabilistic. Given moderate unlock size but low liquidity, short-term downside risk appears elevated.  

However, absence of aggressive selling may quickly stabilize price. Over the medium term, fundamentals and platform adoption will outweigh single unlock events.

Final Thoughts

The CONX token unlock February 15, 2026 introduces a moderate supply increase that could amplify volatility in a thinly traded market.

While the event does not change Connex fundamentals or token utility, it affects float and near-term trading dynamics. Investors should monitor liquidity conditions, support levels, and post-unlock selling behavior carefully. Supply events create opportunity and risk simultaneously.

Read Also: Top Altcoins with Major Token Unlock in January 2026

FAQs

What is the CONX token unlock on February 15, 2026?

It is a scheduled release of approximately 1.32 million CONX tokens, representing about 1.56% of released supply.

Will the unlock crash the price?

Not necessarily. Impact depends on whether unlocked tokens are sold immediately and on overall market liquidity.

What are key CONX support levels?

Support sits near $10.80 to $11.00, while resistance remains around $12.50.

Does the unlock change Connex fundamentals?

No. It increases circulating supply but does not introduce new utility or alter core platform mechanics.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.