Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $109K, Is the Bull Run Over or Just Beginning?

Bitcoin has taken a sharp nosedive, shaking the very foundations of the cryptocurrency market as its value plummeted from $115,000 to just below $104,000 in mere days.

This dramatic downturn marks a four-month low, fueling fears among investors and raising crucial questions about the future trajectory of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

In this article, we’ll dive deep into the Bitcoin price analysis, explore the reasons behind the Bitcoin price drop, and assess whether this is a temporary setback or a sign of a larger market shift.

To stay informed on how events unfold and catch timely updates on Bitcoin price prediction and crypto market trends, follow the Bitrue Blog for expert insights and data-driven analysis.

The Shift in Investor Mindset Amidst Market Uncertainty

According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, this recent correction may not signal disaster but rather a market recalibration.

As volatility rises, investor sentiment has shifted dramatically. More traders are adopting defensive strategies, prioritizing capital protection over speculative gains.

This behavioral shift reflects heightened caution, especially among short-term holders reacting to uncertain macroeconomic conditions and tightening liquidity across global markets.

Read Also: List of Valid Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs – Learn Here Before Invest

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Open Interest and Market Sentiment

The Bitcoin derivatives market offers key insight into the latest decline. Open interest has dropped nearly 30%, suggesting traders are scaling back exposure amid global uncertainty and risk aversion.

This pullback reflects a broader “wait-and-watch” sentiment, as geopolitical tensions and reduced trading volume deter aggressive positioning. The market’s current behavior suggests that participants are hedging for further downside risk.

Institutional Outflows and ETF Selling Pressure

Institutional activity has played a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s recent performance. Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $223 million last week, while total withdrawals across major funds reached $1.22 billion, according to CryptoQuant.

Major players like BlackRock and Fidelity reduced exposure, signaling growing caution among traditional financial institutions.

The drop in institutional demand has amplified selling pressure, especially as long-term holders sold around 40,000 BTC, increasing short-term supply.

Political Dynamics Add to Bitcoin’s Volatility

Macroeconomic and political developments continue to exert significant influence on crypto markets.

Renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, along with tariff announcements and upcoming meetings between Xi and Trump, have heightened market volatility.

These global events underscore how Bitcoin’s price is increasingly correlated with geopolitical narratives. Political uncertainty, whether from tariffs, regulations, or interest rate policy, has become a defining force in shaping crypto market direction.

Read Also: Bitcoin Price Forecast Q4 2025: Trade the Rally on Bitrue

Technical Indicators Show Weakening Momentum

Source: TradingView

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s technical outlook has turned bearish:

1. MACD: −2,127, signaling declining momentum

2. RSI: 40, indicating weak buying strength

3. Stochastic RSI: 20, pointing to potential oversold conditions

4. 50-day EMA: $113,855

5. 200-day SMA: $108,026

Bitcoin’s price is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting further downside risk. The futures long/short ratio stands at 0.955, with $176 million in long liquidations adding to the bearish bias.

Why Bitcoin Price Crashed: The Core Drivers

Several factors contributed to the Bitcoin price crash:

1. ETF Outflows: Institutional investors trimming exposure due to macro uncertainty.

2. Macroeconomic Tensions: Heightened U.S.-China trade friction impacting risk sentiment.

3. Technical Weakness: Failure to hold above $112K triggered automated selling.

4. Investor Behavior: Shift from speculative buying to defensive positioning.

5. Reduced Liquidity: Lower trading volumes amplifying downside volatility.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Recover or Fall Further?

Source: Bitrue

Bitcoin is hovering around $108,000, just below its 200-day SMA, a critical support zone. If prices close below $107K, a further decline toward $102K could follow, particularly if ETF outflows and bearish macro conditions persist.

However, upcoming U.S. Core Inflation data (Oct 24) and the Federal Reserve’s meeting (Oct 28–29) could serve as pivotal catalysts. A rate cut could reignite risk appetite, potentially sparking a short-term rebound.

For now, analysts believe the next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoin’s correction deepens or evolves into a base for the next rally.

Will Bitcoin Price Surge Again?

Despite the current gloom, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin often rebounds strongly after deep corrections. Long-term holders remain unfazed, and institutional buyers could re-enter if inflation eases and liquidity improves.

If macro conditions stabilize and ETF inflows return, Bitcoin could aim for $115K–$120K in Q4 2025. However, the path upward remains highly dependent on global policy signals and market confidence.

Read Also: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024–2030: Future Trends and Forecast Analysis

Conclusion: Navigating Bitcoin’s Next Chapter

The recent Bitcoin price drop highlights the delicate balance between institutional flows, macro risks, and investor psychology.

While the correction may appear daunting, it could also present long-term accumulation opportunities for strategic investors.

FAQ

Why did the Bitcoin price drop recently?

Bitcoin fell due to ETF outflows, geopolitical tensions, and weak technical momentum, leading to increased selling pressure.

Is Bitcoin’s crash a sign of a bear market?

Not necessarily. Analysts view it as a market correction rather than a long-term reversal, with potential for recovery ahead.

Will Bitcoin price surge again in 2025?

If macroeconomic conditions improve and institutional demand returns, Bitcoin could rebound toward the $115K–$120K range.

What should investors watch next?

Key indicators include U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve policy meetings, and ETF inflow/outflow trends.

How can I stay updated on Bitcoin and crypto trends?

Stay informed by following the Bitrue Blog, where you can find real-time analysis and expert insights into the evolving crypto landscape.