Bitcoin Holders Start Selling, But Data Shows the Bull Run Isn’t Finished

As Bitcoin dips below the $115,000 mark for the first time since early July, traders and analysts alike are asking the same question: is this the end of the 2025 bull run? While the market’s short-term momentum looks shaky, new on-chain data suggests the bigger picture might not be as grim as it seems.

Crypto analyst Joao Wedson has shared a data-backed view that, although long-term holders (LTHs) are indeed starting to sell their Bitcoin, the broader cycle still has gas left in the tank. According to his August 1st post, multiple indicators show we may still have months to go before the cycle peaks.

Read Also: Bitcoin Price (BTC), Market Cap, Price Today & Chart History

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin dipped under $115,000, sparking fear of a trend reversal.
• Long-term holders are distributing BTC, signaling a shift in market dynamics.
• On-chain indicators show warnings but don’t confirm a final cycle top.
• Analyst Joao Wedson believes the bull run can continue for at least 2 more months.
• Market metrics like SOPR, Reserve Risk, and Coin Days Destroyed provide nuanced signals.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are Starting to Sell

According to Wedson, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors is now being redistributed. His analysis reveals that roughly 50% of Bitcoin held in ETFs has been offloaded by these long-term holders. This kind of selling pressure typically precedes a market shift, especially after such a prolonged accumulation phase.

While this behavior can be seen as a signal of reduced conviction, it may also simply reflect profit-taking near local tops — a common move during late-stage rallies.

Read Also: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Today

Four Key On-Chain Metrics to Watch

Wedson’s analysis uses four well-respected on-chain indicators to paint a clearer picture of the current state of the market:

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Terminal Adjusted

This metric tracks the movement of older coins that have been dormant. When these aged BTC start moving, it usually indicates that long-term holders are cashing out. Right now, CDD is flashing elevated activity, which is consistent with distribution during peak cycle phases.

Reserve Risk Indicator

Used to measure the confidence of long-term holders relative to price, Reserve Risk is now entering a caution zone. This shift implies that holders are less convinced the price will continue rising in the short term, which often precedes broader sell-offs.

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

This trend signal tells us whether Bitcoin holders are moving coins at a profit. Wedson notes that SOPR has recently flipped bearish, signaling that many traders are realizing gains — another classic sign of a cooling rally.

Market Top Prediction: Max Intersect SMA Model

Despite the warning signs, this widely used model still shows that the final cycle top has not yet been hit. Wedson’s chart suggests that the market could continue its upward climb until this model reaches the $69,000 benchmark, after which a major reversal might occur.

Why the Bull Run Might Still Have Legs

Even with these warning signals, Wedson believes there’s still room for growth. He projects that Bitcoin’s current market cycle has at least two more months before it peaks, with altcoins possibly extending their run for three months.

This aligns with historical market patterns where LTHs begin selling ahead of major tops, but the broader market continues to rally as late adopters pour in.

Read Also: How to buy Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin Price Today

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $113,052, down 1.2% over the last 24 hours. While the price action may appear discouraging on the surface, context is everything. In previous cycles, similar pullbacks served as brief pauses before major price acceleration.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s recent drop and the shift in long-term holder behavior may look like red flags, but they don’t confirm the end of the bull cycle just yet. Analysts like Joao Wedson are urging traders to watch key metrics — not just price — before making assumptions. With the Max Intersect SMA model still neutral and SOPR only just entering bearish territory, there’s a real chance that the crypto market’s final push is still ahead.

Traders should prepare for volatility but also remain alert to opportunities. As history shows, market tops often take time to form — and panic usually comes too early.

FAQs

Are Bitcoin long-term holders selling now?

Yes, recent on-chain data shows that long-term holders have begun distributing Bitcoin, with about 50% of ETF-held BTC being sold.

Does this mean the Bitcoin bull run is over?

Not necessarily. While there are signs of distribution, key metrics like the Max Intersect SMA model have not yet confirmed a cycle top.

What indicators should traders watch right now?

Key metrics include Coin Days Destroyed, Reserve Risk, SOPR, and the SMA Market Top Prediction model.

What is Bitcoin’s current price?

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $113,052, reflecting a slight decline over the past 24 hours.

How much longer can the bull run last?

Analyst Joao Wedson expects the BTC bull cycle to continue for at least two more months, with altcoins potentially extending into the next quarter.