Will the Solana ETF Be Approved Soon? Understanding the Odds

In the ever-changing world of cryptocurrency, Solana (SOL) has been gaining attention. The question on everyone's mind is whether a Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) will be approved soon.

As of June 2025, the probability of this approval has soared to an impressive 83%. Let's dive into what this means, the latest trends, and what might be in store for Solana.

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What Is a Solana Spot ETF?

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that tracks the performance of a particular asset. In this case, the Solana ETF would track the price of Solana, allowing investors to invest in the digital asset through traditional market channels.

The potential approval of such an ETF would mark a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency, providing greater accessibility for investors and possibly pushing its price even higher.

Current Odds and Market Confidence

The chances of the SEC approving a Solana spot ETF in 2025 have dramatically increased to over 80%. According to Polymarket, a prediction platform, the odds were at 83% on June 1, 2025, reflecting a 9% increase from previous months.

This rising optimism aligns with the growing interest in Solana and its place in the crypto market.

Interestingly, the odds fluctuated over the year, with significant jumps and slight pullbacks. By May, the probability surged as high as 90%, but it stabilized above 80% as June approached. These fluctuations indicate that while the chances are high, there are still uncertainties in the air.

Regulatory Hurdles and the SEC’s Role

One of the key players in determining the fate of Solana's ETF is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC is currently reviewing various proposals, including one by NYSE Arca to list a Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund, which includes Solana along with other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, the SEC has extended its decision timeline for the proposed rule change by 60 days, from the original June 1, 2025, deadline to July 31, 2025. This delay shows that the SEC is taking time to ensure that the proposed ETF aligns with the regulatory framework.

Additionally, new proposals for a "staking ETF" have been submitted by companies like REX Shares and Osprey Funds. These funds would stake a significant portion of their assets, including Solana, to generate additional yield.

Yet, the SEC has raised concerns about whether this setup qualifies as an investment company, signaling that there might be more regulatory roadblocks ahead.

Solana’s Price and Market Sentiment

Despite the excitement surrounding the potential ETF approval, Solana's market sentiment is still cautious. As of now, Solana’s price is $151, showing a decline of about 1.5% in the past 24 hours.

Over the past week, the asset has lost more than 10% of its value, reflecting the general bearish trend in the market. The Fear & Greed Index is currently in the "extreme fear" territory, signaling that many investors are cautious.

The technical indicators also support a bearish outlook. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $157.44 and the 200-day SMA at $166.02 suggest that the price might face resistance soon.

READ ALSO: SEC Rules Meme Coins Are Not Securities – What This Means for Crypto

What Could the Solana ETF Approval Mean?

If the Solana ETF is approved, it could open the door for more institutional investors and retail traders to gain exposure to Solana in a regulated way. This would increase the liquidity of SOL and could help stabilize its price, allowing it to mature as an investment asset.

However, the SEC’s cautious stance and ongoing regulatory review show that there are still several hurdles before approval. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether Solana's journey toward becoming an ETF-backed cryptocurrency will continue smoothly.

Conclusion: Solana’s Future in ETFs

The growing odds of Solana’s spot ETF approval show that market confidence is on the rise. While regulatory concerns persist, the future remains promising, especially if the SEC clears the way for such an investment vehicle.

For investors, it’s important to stay informed about these developments and keep an eye on the price trends and regulatory news.

For those looking to trade Solana or keep up with crypto news, head over to Bitrue Exchange, where you can find the latest updates and even trade Solana. You can also visit Bitrue Blogs for more insights into crypto trends and opportunities on Bitrue exchange.

FAQs

1. What is an ETF?

An ETF is an investment fund that tracks the price of a specific asset. In the case of Solana, a Solana spot ETF would allow investors to gain exposure to Solana without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency.

2. Why has the approval chance for Solana’s ETF increased?

The chance of approval has increased due to growing market confidence in Solana’s potential and the SEC’s review of related proposals, which have gained traction this year.

3. What are the risks for Solana’s ETF approval?

Despite the optimism, there are concerns over the regulatory framework and the SEC’s questions about the proposed ETF's structure. These factors could delay or even block the approval.