XRP September 2025 Warning: Will Price Crash 10% or Surprise with a Bullish Rebound?
2025-09-02
XRP closed August on a sour note, falling over 22% from its July peak of $3.66 and slipping dangerously close to the $2.80 support level.
Traders are now on edge as September begins, with technical patterns and on-chain data suggesting a potential 10-25% decline if the bearish momentum holds.
At the same time, some analysts argue that XRP could bounce back strongly if buyers defend key levels.
With sentiment split and volatility expected, the next few weeks could prove decisive for Ripple’s token.
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Key Takeaways
XRP is testing $2.80 support: A breakdown could accelerate losses toward $2.17 or even $1.73.
Bearish technical signals emerge: The MACD points to weakening momentum, echoing past declines.
Rebound potential still exists: Holding above the 50-week EMA could keep hopes of a move to $4 alive.
On-Chain Data Flags Breakdown Risk
XRP’s September outlook is closely tied to the $2.80 support zone, which has become a battleground between buyers and sellers.
According to Glassnode’s cost basis heatmap, nearly 1.71 billion XRP were acquired between $2.81 and $2.82. This cluster of supply means that many holders are watching this level closely.
Why $2.80 Matters
A decisive move below $2.80 could trigger panic selling, as traders rush to secure profits before deeper losses.
If that happens, the next major support sits at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement around $1.73, a level that served as a strong floor earlier in 2025.
On the other hand, holding this level could encourage sidelined buyers to re-enter, helping XRP stabilize.
Current Position
As of early September, XRP trades near $2.88, slightly above the critical supply zone. While that offers some breathing room, the thin margin means any spike in selling pressure could flip the trend quickly.
The heatmap suggests that sentiment among holders is fragile. A breakdown could spark a chain reaction of profit-taking, while a successful defense of support may lay the foundation for a relief rally.
Read Also: Why Did XRP Price Drop Below $3? Will It Recover Soon and Rise Again?
Technical Analysis and Bearish Signals
While on-chain metrics highlight investor behavior, technical indicators provide a clear picture of potential price action.
One of the strongest bearish signals forming for XRP is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the weekly chart.
The MACD Warning
The MACD is on track to print a bearish crossover in September. In simple terms, this happens when the faster-moving blue line drops below the slower orange line, signaling weakening momentum.
Historically, these crossovers have marked the beginning of significant corrections.
In May 2021, XRP fell over 50% shortly after a bearish crossover.
The same pattern repeated in September 2021 and March 2025, each time triggering declines that tested long-term moving averages.
If history repeats, XRP could fall toward its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2.17, which aligns with a possible 25% correction.
The Bear Market Scenario
If XRP fails to hold the 50-week EMA, the next critical support is $1.73, followed by the 200-week EMA near $1.19.
A move this deep would confirm a prolonged bearish trend, mirroring patterns seen in past cycles.
However, XRP’s long-term trend shows resilience. Since mid-2024, the token has repeatedly rebounded after testing the 50-week EMA, suggesting that buyers may again step in to prevent a collapse.
Read Also: XRP Price Explosion Ahead? $1B Futures Boom Signals Breakout to New ATH
Could XRP Still Rebound in September?
Despite the bearish setup, not all signals point to doom for XRP. Some analysts remain optimistic that the token could surprise traders with a rebound.
Why Bulls Still Have a Case
XRP has historically found strong support at the 50-week EMA before regaining upward momentum.
Analysts argue that the current retracement resembles a consolidation phase rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.
If buyers defend $2.80 and push prices above $3.05, XRP could regain strength and even aim for $4 in the coming months.
Market Sentiment and Catalysts
Much of XRP’s trajectory also depends on broader crypto market conditions. If Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilize in September, altcoins like XRP could benefit from renewed buying interest. Meanwhile, any regulatory clarity or positive adoption news could act as a catalyst.
In short, XRP’s September forecast is not set in stone. While technicals warn of risk, historical resilience and broader market shifts leave room for a bullish rebound.
Read Also: XRP October Breakout: Could $4 Be Closer Than You Think?
Conclusion
XRP enters September under pressure, with $2.80 acting as the line in the sand. A breakdown could trigger a slide toward $2.17 or even $1.73, while a defense of support may open the door for a recovery to $3.05 and beyond.
Technical patterns like the bearish MACD crossover suggest caution, but XRP’s history of rebounding from the 50-week EMA gives bulls a reason to stay hopeful.
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FAQ
Why did XRP fall in August 2025?
XRP dropped over 22% in August due to profit-taking and bearish signals forming on technical charts.
What is the key support for XRP in September 2025?
The most critical support is around $2.80. A breakdown here could lead to deeper declines.
Can XRP still rebound this month?
Yes. If XRP holds above $2.80 and breaks past $3.05, it could regain strength and aim for $4.
What indicators suggest a bearish trend?
The MACD on the weekly chart is close to a bearish crossover, which has historically preceded major pullbacks.
Is XRP still a long-term investment option?
Despite short-term volatility, XRP remains a key player in cross-border payments and has potential for long-term growth if adoption increases.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute financial or investment advice.
