Bitcoin Warning: What Happens If BTC Breaks Below $110,000 Support?

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to stay above its crucial $110,000 support level. The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped close to that line on Tuesday, October 15, 2025, after a wave of global uncertainty hit both stocks and digital assets. 

Despite recovering slightly from the weekend’s decline, signals from technical charts and on-chain data suggest that a deeper correction could follow if this level gives way. The decline came as part of a broader market selloff. 

Global stock indexes dropped after China imposed restrictions on five U.S. companies linked to a South Korean conglomerate. The move fueled geopolitical tension and risk aversion, sending investors toward safer assets. 

Within 24 hours, BTC price fell by 4.65%, marking one of its sharpest single-day losses this quarter. Analysts are now warning that if selling pressure continues, BTC could correct to between $96,500 and $100,000, a zone that has previously served as a major support area. 

Technical Outlook: “Broadening Wedge” Pattern Shows Warning Signs

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price movement remains within a broadening wedge pattern, a formation that typically signals volatility before a breakout in either direction. 

According to chart analysts, BTC has been oscillating between the upper and lower boundaries of this pattern for several weeks.

A well-known market analyst known as BitBull explained that whenever Bitcoin fails to break through the upper boundary of this wedge, it tends to retest the lower boundary before reversing. At present, that lower boundary aligns with the $100,000 to $103,000 range.

This range also coincides with two significant technical indicators, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Fibonacci retracement level of 1.618. These overlapping signals strengthen the likelihood that the zone could act as a rebound point if BTC reaches it.

Historically, similar retracements have often marked temporary “cooling phases” before a new rally begins. The pattern suggests that while a short-term drop may be painful, it could serve as a foundation for the next leg of Bitcoin’s uptrend if broader market confidence returns.

Read also: Bitcoin Price Drops to $110K Amid U.S.-China Tensions

On-Chain Data: Glassnode Model Points to $96,500 Target

Supporting the technical analysis, Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, an on-chain model that tracks how far market prices deviate from fair value, also signals potential for further downside.

At the moment, BTC has fallen below the +0.5σ band, positioned around $119,000. Historically, when prices move below this level, Bitcoin tends to perform a “mean reversion,” meaning it drifts back toward its average valuation band. 

That fair value band currently lies around $96,500, suggesting that BTC may still have room to fall before stabilizing.

This pattern resembles what happened between December 2024 and April 2025, when Bitcoin dropped from $66,980 to $53,900 before rebounding and setting a new record above $120,000. 

Analysts believe the current movement may be another natural correction within the ongoing bull cycle.

However, if the BTC price drops below the mean band line, the probability of a long-term bearish shift would increase, with an extreme downside target of around $74,000.

Read also: Polymarket Crypto Bets: 71% Chance Bitcoin Hits $126K in October 2025

Market Sentiment: Correction or Start of a Bear Market?

While the market tone has turned cautious, many analysts argue that this is not necessarily the end of Bitcoin’s bullish phase. Instead, it could be part of what they describe as a “mid-cycle reset.”

After Bitcoin’s long rally that began in early 2024, signs of overheating became clear. Leverage across futures and derivatives markets reached high levels, and investor sentiment grew excessively optimistic. 

In that context, a correction toward the $100,000 area is viewed by some as a natural event to restore balance.

Still, the $110,000 level remains a key psychological and technical threshold. If BTC holds above this line, it could signal that the market is simply consolidating before another upward move. 

But if the support breaks decisively with strong trading volume, a deeper fall toward the $96,500–$100,000 range becomes likely.

In short, the next few trading sessions could decide whether the BTC forecast points to recovery or an extended correction.

Find other interesting articles on Bitrue blog! You can also directly buy selected assets on Bitrue by registering here! 

FAQ

What if I invested $1000 in Bitcoin 5 years ago?

If you invested $1,000 in Bitcoin 5 years ago (in 2020), your investment would now be worth approximately $9,689. For comparison, that same $1,000 invested 15 years ago (in 2010) would be worth about $1.62 billion.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be in 2030?

Based on a prediction that Bitcoin will grow at a rate of 5% every year, the price of 1 Bitcoin would be $141,244.80 in 2030. By 2040, the price is projected to reach $230,072.90.

Can I buy 1 Bitcoin?

Yes, you can buy 1 Bitcoin, but you are also allowed to buy less than a whole Bitcoin (fractions of a coin). Whether you own 1 BTC or just 0.01 BTC, your investment is equally exposed to the cryptocurrency's price movements.

How to write $7 in Bitcoin?

$7 USD is currently equivalent to 0.000063 BTC.

How much Bitcoin to be rich?

To become a Bitcoin millionaire (assuming a 30% annualized return), you would need to invest roughly $85,500 annually for five years, or about $18,250 annually for 10 years.

Who owns the most Bitcoin?

The largest known holder of Bitcoin is believed to be Satoshi Nakamoto (the pseudonymous creator), who is estimated to own around 1.1 million BTC. Other major holders include the Winklevoss twins (70,000 BTC) and Tim Draper (29,500 BTC).