Latest Trade Talk Leaves Bullish Hope! Effects on Crypto

The global market is buzzing with optimism as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet this Thursday in Gyeongju, South Korea, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. This marks their first in-person meeting of Trump’s second term, and the implications could ripple across financial markets — especially crypto.

Prediction platform Kalshi now shows a 93% probability that the summit will take place this week, with over $6 million wagered on its occurrence. Traders are betting that a breakthrough could ease tensions between the two economic giants, lifting both traditional and digital markets.

The stakes are enormous, touching issues like tariffs, rare earth minerals, Russian oil imports, semiconductors, soybeans, fentanyl trafficking, and Taiwan. The tone of the talks — whether cooperative or confrontational — could determine the near-term trajectory of global risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

Key Takeaways

• Trump and Xi will meet Thursday in South Korea during APEC.
• Kalshi prediction market odds for the summit sit above 93%.
• Key topics: tariffs, rare earths, Russian oil, semiconductors, Taiwan.
• The U.S. Treasury says a “substantial framework” could delay Trump’s planned 100% tariff hike.
• Analysts expect a short-term crypto rally if a trade truce holds.

Trade Tensions Ease — and Crypto Reacts

Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in Malaysia and reportedly reached a “substantial framework” to prevent new tariff hikes. This comes just days before the planned November 1 increase, which would have raised some tariffs to over 150%.

“I believe we’ve reached a very substantial framework that will avoid [a tariff hike] and allow us to discuss many other things with the Chinese,” Bessent said during an interview with NBC.

That statement, and the broader thaw in tone, triggered immediate market optimism. Bitcoin rebounded above $112,000, while Ethereum surged past $4,200, mirroring gains across equities and commodities.

Trump’s comment aboard Air Force One summed it up:

“They’ll have to make concessions. I guess we will too. On tariffs, I wouldn’t like to see it.”

Markets interpreted this as a softening stance, which often leads investors to rotate back into risk assets, including crypto.

Read Also: Trump's Tariff Shock Triggers $200B Crypto Meltdown!

Inside the Trump–Xi Agenda

The upcoming summit in Gyeongju will take place Thursday morning local time, equivalent to Wednesday night in Washington. According to Chinese state media, the Malaysia pre-talks resulted in a “basic consensus on arrangements”, suggesting groundwork has already been laid for cooperative dialogue.

Main Discussion Points

• Tariffs: The biggest headline issue, with both sides aiming to delay Trump’s November tariff plan.
• Rare Earths: U.S. concerns about China’s monopoly in rare earth minerals used for batteries, chips, and clean energy.
• Russian Oil: Washington seeks to limit Beijing’s continued imports from sanctioned Russian firms.
• Semiconductors: Discussions expected on export restrictions and American chip controls.
• Agriculture: Soybean and agricultural exports remain a vital component of bilateral trade.
• Fentanyl Trafficking: A sensitive but persistent topic in U.S.–China cooperation.
• Taiwan: No agenda item unless China raises it — though Trump warned Beijing that “any move on Taiwan would be very dangerous.”

If even half of these issues see constructive dialogue, markets could rally further.

Analysts Cautiously Optimistic

Market strategist Terry Haines from Pangaea Policy notes that “nice noises” from both sides could buoy markets temporarily, but long-term progress remains uncertain.

“The two sides may have agreed to keep the truce alive for a few months, but the deeper problems — tech bans, resource control, and geopolitical mistrust — are far from solved,” he said.

Nevertheless, short-term traders are eyeing this event as a sentiment driver. Crypto markets, already buoyed by Bitcoin’s recovery, are likely to maintain bullish momentum if no new trade shocks emerge.

How Trade Diplomacy Impacts Bitcoin

Bitcoin often reacts to macroeconomic uncertainty and trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Historically, risk assets — including crypto — tend to surge during diplomatic optimism and retreat during tariff escalations.

This time, the stakes are higher:

• A positive Trump–Xi outcome could reinforce Bitcoin’s breakout above $116,000, as short positions unwind and institutional buyers return.
• A failed summit, however, could trigger volatility, pushing BTC back toward $108,000–$110,000.

With the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting scheduled just a day before the summit, macro traders are positioning around both events. If the Fed maintains its neutral stance and the Trump–Xi meeting ends amicably, the combined effect could create a perfect bullish setup for crypto heading into November.

The Broader Picture: Trade, Trust, and Tokenization

Even though the meeting might only produce a short-term truce, its symbolic value matters. A stable trade environment between the world’s two largest economies generally boosts liquidity, risk appetite, and capital inflows into emerging assets — including crypto.

China’s ongoing restrictions on capital outflows continue to make Bitcoin a hedge for yuan volatility, while U.S. investors see BTC as a macro play on policy easing and geopolitical tension.

As markets digest the week’s headlines, a sustained Bitcoin close above $116,000 could trigger the next wave of institutional inflows, reviving the bull narrative after weeks of sideways consolidation.

Final Thoughts

The Trump–Xi meeting may not deliver groundbreaking policy change, but it’s already serving its purpose — restoring short-term confidence in global markets. With both leaders signaling cooperation, traders are positioning for a bullish continuation across crypto.

Still, the fragility of this optimism cannot be ignored. The unresolved disputes over semiconductors, energy, and Taiwan remain long-term risks. For now, though, the balance tilts toward stability over escalation, giving Bitcoin and the broader crypto market room to breathe.

If the summit confirms progress — or even just a commitment to dialogue — expect BTC, ETH, and SOL to continue their upward trajectory this week.

Read Also: Crypto Market Crashes After Trump's Tariffs

FAQs

What is the Trump–Xi meeting about?

The summit aims to discuss key trade issues including tariffs, rare earths, oil, and semiconductor exports, with hopes of easing tensions between the U.S. and China.

Why are markets reacting bullishly?

Markets are optimistic that a trade truce will delay Trump’s planned tariff hike, reducing global uncertainty and encouraging investment in risk assets like crypto.

How does this affect Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price often responds positively to improved macro stability. A successful summit could reinforce BTC’s ongoing recovery above $115,000.

What are the key risks?

If talks collapse or tariffs resume in November, market optimism could fade quickly, leading to short-term corrections in crypto.

When will the meeting happen?

The summit is expected to begin Thursday morning (Korea time), which corresponds to Wednesday night in Washington, D.C.