Bitcoin Tanks to $107K in September Crash, Can BTC Rebound to $113,500 Next?

Bitcoin price September 2025 has opened with turbulence, as the world’s largest cryptocurrency fell to a two-month low near $107,000 before rebounding slightly. 

This Bitcoin September crash has sparked fresh debate among traders: is this the beginning of a deeper correction, or could BTC be gearing up for a recovery toward the $113,500 target?

Historically, September has been a bearish month for Bitcoin, but on-chain data and macroeconomic signals suggest a rebound may be brewing. 

This article explores the reasons behind Bitcoin’s drop, the technical levels that matter most, and the Bitcoin rebound prediction for the weeks ahead.

Why Did Bitcoin Drop to $107K?

Bitcoin price today slipped as reports surfaced of whale wallets unloading large BTC holdings, some converting into Ether. 

This profit-taking coincided with outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, while Ethereum ETFs saw inflows, a rare divergence in institutional demand.

Adding pressure, seasonal caution returned to the market. September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, often seeing investors lock in summer profits or hedge against broader market volatility.

Finally, macro headwinds amplified the sell-off. Traders are bracing for the U.S. jobs report and potential Fed rate cuts, both of which could heavily influence risk assets like Bitcoin.

Read Also: Will the Crypto Market Crash on Labor Day?

SOPR Signals Weak Hands Exiting

On-chain data gives further clarity on the market mood. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders dropped to 0.982 in late August, its lowest in months.

This means many short-term traders sold their coins at a loss, a typical sign of capitulation. Historically, such washouts “cleanse” the market of weak hands, paving the way for stronger participants to accumulate at lower levels.

The last time SOPR dropped this low, Bitcoin bottomed near $84,800 before rallying more than 30% to $111,600. That precedent makes analysts cautiously optimistic about a rebound.

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URPD Shows Critical Support and Resistance Levels

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) provides a heatmap of where Bitcoin supply last moved, revealing potential support and resistance zones.

• Strong Support: Around $107,000, with over 286,000 BTC held at this level.
   
• Neutral Zone: Around $108,200, where nearly 447,000 BTC were bought.
   
• Key Resistance: $113,200–$113,500, with over 210,000 BTC concentrated.
   
• Major Wall: $116,900, the heaviest resistance cluster in this range.

This data explains why Bitcoin has stabilized around $108,000 and highlights $113,500 as the key breakout level to watch.

Read Also: Bitcoin Sees First Outflow in Weeks: $751 Million Pulled from ETFs

Bitcoin Price Forecast 2025: Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces a crucial test:

• Bearish Scenario: A daily close below $107,300 would confirm continuation of the downtrend, potentially opening the door to deeper losses.
   
• Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $109,700 would signal recovery strength, with $112,300 and $113,500 as the next upside targets.

Notably, analysts also see $113,500 as the “line in the sand” — a level BTC has repeatedly failed to break. Clearing it could unlock upside momentum toward $117,400 or even $124,500 in the medium term.

Macro Factors: Can Fed Policy Spark a Rebound?

Beyond technicals, Bitcoin’s next move may hinge on Federal Reserve policy. With inflation cooling and the labor market slowing, expectations are high for a September rate cut.

A weaker U.S. dollar, which has already shown signs of retreat, could act as a major tailwind for Bitcoin and risk assets. If the Fed confirms dovish policy at its mid-September meeting, BTC could see renewed buying interest.

Read Also: JPMorgan Forecasts 13% Upside for Bitcoin as Volatility Hits Record Lows

Conclusion: Caution or Opportunity?

The Bitcoin September crash has shaken short-term traders, but long-term holders view it as a familiar seasonal pattern. With weak hands exiting, whales repositioning, and critical support holding near $107,000, the setup for a rebound is building.

If Bitcoin can reclaim $113,500, the case for a bullish reversal will strengthen, potentially setting up BTC for a push toward $124,500 before year-end. However, if $107,000 breaks, caution will dominate the narrative.

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FAQs

What caused the Bitcoin September crash to $107K?

The crash was fueled by whale sell-offs, ETF outflows, seasonal September weakness, and caution ahead of the U.S. jobs report and potential Fed policy changes.

Is $107,000 a strong support level for Bitcoin?

Yes. On-chain URPD data shows a large cluster of Bitcoin holdings around $107,000, making it a critical anchor point for bulls.

Can Bitcoin rebound to $113,500 this month?

Yes, if Bitcoin reclaims $109,700 and builds momentum, it could challenge the $113,500 resistance. Breaking this level would be a strong bullish signal.

Why is $113,500 such an important level?

$113,500 aligns with historical resistance, Fibonacci retracement levels, and significant on-chain clusters. Clearing it would confirm a shift in market sentiment.

What is the Bitcoin price forecast for the rest of 2025?

Analysts see a potential rebound toward $124,500 if BTC holds above $107,000 and breaks $113,500. However, a failure to defend support could push prices lower before a year-end recovery.