Bitcoin Nears 4th Straight Red Month—First Time Since 2018

Bitcoin is on the verge of recording four consecutive months of negative returns, a pattern not seen since the 2018 bear market. 

After a volatile 2025 that ended with a red yearly candle, BTC has struggled to regain upward momentum in early 2026. 

Technical indicators such as RSI and Bollinger Bands suggest mounting pressure for a breakout, but sentiment remains cautious as traders weigh macroeconomic uncertainty and fading momentum from ETF inflows.

Key Takeaways on BTC Price Trends

• Bitcoin 4 consecutive red months analysis shows a rare bearish streak, last seen in 2018.

• BTC price recovery after 2025 down year remains elusive, with January 2026 showing minimal gains.

• Historical comparisons to 2018 suggest prolonged consolidation phases may follow multi-month declines.

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Bitcoin 4 Consecutive Red Months Analysis

Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience after multi-month declines, but four straight red months are rare and often signal deeper structural weakness. In 2018, a similar pattern preceded a prolonged bear market that lasted until early 2019. 

Credit: CoinDesk

The current setup reflects a mix of macro headwinds, including tightening liquidity, cautious institutional sentiment, and reduced retail participation. 

Analysts note that while the four-month streak is technically significant, it does not guarantee further downside unless confirmed by volume and momentum breakdowns.

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BTC Price Recovery After 2025 Down Year

Bitcoin closed 2025 with a negative annual performance, marking a shift from the bullish momentum seen in 2023 and early 2024. 

The final quarter of 2025 saw declining interest from ETF buyers and increased selling pressure from miners and long-term holders. 

January 2026 opened with BTC hovering near $87,500, showing only marginal gains and failing to break key resistance levels. 

Recovery efforts are being hampered by weak inflows and a lack of clear catalysts, leaving traders focused on short-term setups rather than long-term accumulation.

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Bitcoin Bear Market vs 2018 Historical Comparison

The 2018 bear market was characterized by steep drawdowns, low volatility, and extended consolidation. 

While the current market has not yet matched those conditions, the structural similarities are notable. 

Both periods followed major bull runs and were impacted by regulatory uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment. 

However, the presence of institutional products like ETFs and staking infrastructure in 2026 introduces new dynamics that could shorten or soften the downturn compared to 2018.

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Technical and Sentiment Indicators

Technical charts show Bitcoin trading within a narrowing range, with RSI levels near neutral and Bollinger Bands tightening. 

These conditions often precede volatility spikes, but direction remains uncertain. 

Sentiment indicators from platforms like Santiment and Glassnode suggest declining network activity and reduced whale accumulation. 

Traders are watching for signals from options expiry and macroeconomic data releases, which could provide the next directional cue.

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Conclusion

Bitcoin’s approach to a fourth consecutive red month marks a rare technical event, last seen during the 2018 bear market. 

While the broader context in 2026 includes more institutional involvement and infrastructure maturity, the lack of momentum and weak recovery from 2025’s down year raises concerns. 

Whether BTC can avoid deeper losses will depend on macro conditions, investor sentiment, and the emergence of new demand drivers in the coming months.

FAQ

What does four red months mean for Bitcoin?

It signals sustained negative returns, last seen during the 2018 bear market.

How did Bitcoin perform in 2025?

BTC ended 2025 with a negative yearly candle, reflecting weak momentum and fading ETF inflows.

Is this similar to the 2018 bear market?

Yes, both periods show multi-month declines and cautious sentiment, though 2026 has more institutional support.

What technical indicators are traders watching?

RSI, Bollinger Bands, and volume trends are key for spotting breakout or breakdown signals.

Can Bitcoin recover after this streak?

Recovery depends on macro conditions, investor sentiment, and new demand catalysts in early 2026.

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