Arthur Hayes: Ethereum Could Surge 2x Even as 'Most-Hated L1'

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken former CEO of BitMEX, has made waves with his bold prediction: Ethereum, often called the "most-hated layer-1" blockchain, could double in price to $5,000 by the end of 2025. Despite its recent underperformance compared to rivals like Solana, Hayes sees Ethereum’s fundamentals and market sentiment driving a significant comeback. 

His insights, shared at the Bitcoin 2025 conference and in recent interviews, highlight Ethereum’s resilience and potential in a shifting crypto landscape. For investors and crypto enthusiasts, understanding Hayes’ reasoning offers a window into Ethereum’s future. This article breaks down his prediction, why Ethereum is viewed as “hated,” and what factors could fuel its surge. 

Why Ethereum Is the 'Most-Hated L1'

Ethereum’s reputation as the "most-hated layer-1" stems from its struggles to keep pace with faster, cheaper blockchains like Solana. Critics argue Ethereum’s high transaction fees and slower speeds have made it less appealing for developers and users, especially as Solana’s price soared from $7 to $265 since 2020, outpacing Ethereum’s growth. 

Despite this, Hayes argues that Ethereum’s perceived weaknesses are precisely why it’s undervalued. He told Decrypt, “You want to own the most hated thing because that’s going to perform the best.” Ethereum still boasts the largest total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi), the most active developers, and a secure proof-of-stake system. 

These fundamentals, often overlooked amid the hype for newer chains, position Ethereum for a rebound. Posts on X echo this sentiment, noting Ethereum’s 51% dominance in stablecoin transactions as a sign of its enduring strength. Hayes believes this negative sentiment creates a buying opportunity for savvy investors.

Factors Driving Ethereum’s Potential Surge

Hayes points to several catalysts for Ethereum’s potential 2x surge. First, the Pectra upgrade, rolled out in 2025, has improved Ethereum’s scalability and efficiency, addressing past criticisms about transaction costs. Second, stablecoin growth and layer-2 solutions, like Optimism and Arbitrum, enhance Ethereum’s ecosystem by enabling faster, cheaper transactions while maintaining security. 

These upgrades make Ethereum more competitive against rivals. Additionally, Hayes highlights macroeconomic trends, such as potential Federal Reserve quantitative easing, which could flood markets with liquidity and boost crypto prices. He draws parallels to the 2020–2021 bull run, when Ethereum surged from $1,400 to over $2,700 in Q2 2025. On-chain data also supports his optimism: the ETH/BTC ratio recently jumped 38%, signaling renewed investor interest. However, risks remain, including competition from Solana and potential market volatility. Hayes’ focus on sentiment—“the most hated asset goes up the fastest”—suggests Ethereum’s turnaround could be fueled by a shift in perception as much as technical improvements.

Read More:
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Arthur Hayes’ Track Record and Perspective

Arthur Hayes, now CIO of Maelstrom, has a history of bold crypto predictions. He accurately foresaw Bitcoin’s rise during past liquidity surges and now predicts Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by Q3 2025 and $1 million by 2028. His Ethereum outlook aligns with this bullish macro view, driven by global liquidity shifts and U.S. policy changes, like potential Treasury buybacks or tariff impacts. 

In a Bankless podcast, Hayes emphasized Ethereum’s resilience, noting its unmatched developer community and DeFi dominance despite being “written off” by investors. His contrarian approach—betting on undervalued assets—has earned him credibility, though his short-term predictions have occasionally missed the mark, as he admitted last year. While some X posts amplify his $10,000–$15,000 Ethereum predictions, these higher targets lack consistent backing in recent reports, suggesting they’re speculative. Hayes’ focus on Ethereum over Solana reflects his belief in its long-term value, but investors should weigh his optimism against market uncertainties and competition.

Ethereum Price Projection

Hayes predicts Ethereum could climb to $4,000–$5,000 by the end of 2025, a 50–88% increase from its current price of around $2,648. This would mark a new all-time high, nearly doubling its value. If Ethereum breaks $5,000, Hayes suggests it could even reach $10,000 or $15,000, though these figures are less certain and depend on sustained bullish momentum. Key drivers include the Pectra upgrade, which enhances scalability, and growing adoption of layer-2 networks that reduce transaction costs. Stablecoin activity, with Ethereum powering 51% of transactions, further supports its ecosystem. 

However, risks like regulatory hurdles or a failure to outpace competitors could cap gains. On-chain metrics, like the 38% ETH/BTC ratio surge, bolster Hayes’ case, but market volatility remains a concern. Investors should monitor liquidity trends and sentiment shifts, as Hayes believes Ethereum’s “hated” status could spark a bandwagon effect, driving prices higher as doubters rejoin the rally. Always approach such projections cautiously, as crypto markets are unpredictable.

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes’ prediction that Ethereum could double to $5,000 in 2025, despite its “most-hated L1” label, highlights its untapped potential. Ethereum’s robust fundamentals—leading DeFi TVL, active developer community, and secure blockchain—position it for a comeback, fueled by upgrades like Pectra and growing layer-2 adoption. Hayes’ contrarian bet leans on sentiment shifts and macroeconomic tailwinds, like potential Federal Reserve easing, to drive prices. 

However, competition from Solana and market volatility pose risks that investors must consider. His track record of bold, often accurate calls lends weight to his outlook, but crypto’s unpredictability demands caution. For those eyeing Ethereum, staying informed on upgrades, on-chain data, and global economic trends is key. Check trusted sources like CoinMarketCap or Decrypt for updates, and weigh both opportunities and risks before investing. Ethereum’s story is far from over, and Hayes’ insights suggest it could shine brighter than its critics expect.

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FAQ

Why does Arthur Hayes call Ethereum the “most-hated L1”?

Hayes refers to Ethereum as “hated” due to its high fees and slower speeds compared to rivals like Solana, leading to negative sentiment among investors.

What is driving Hayes’ Ethereum price prediction?

The Pectra upgrade, layer-2 solutions, stablecoin dominance, and potential liquidity from Federal Reserve policies fuel his $4,000–$5,000 target for 2025.

Could Ethereum really reach $10,000 or more?

Hayes suggests $10,000–$15,000 is possible if Ethereum breaks $5,000, but this is speculative and depends on sustained market momentum.

How reliable are Arthur Hayes’ predictions?

Hayes has a strong track record, but his short-term forecasts have been inconsistent. His macro insights are respected, but crypto markets are volatile.

Should I invest in Ethereum based on this prediction?

Consider Ethereum’s fundamentals and risks like competition or regulation. Consult financial advisors and use trusted sources like CoinMarketCap before investing.