AI Data Centers to Surge Copper Demand by 127%: Is a Global Shortage Inevitable?

Copper enters 2026 as one of the most critical commodities underpinning the global energy transition and digital infrastructure boom. 

Forecasts suggest that global copper demand could rise from 28 million tons today to 42 million tons by 2040, driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy grids, and the rapid expansion of AI data centers. 

With supply expected to peak around 2030, analysts warn of a looming copper supply-demand gap of 10 million tons annually, raising concerns about whether the world can avoid a shortage.

Key Takeaways

• Global copper demand 2040 is projected to reach 42 million tons, up nearly 50 percent from current levels.

• AI data centers alone could lift copper demand by 127 percent, adding 2.5 million tons.

• The copper supply-demand gap may widen to 10 million tons annually, nearly 30 percent of demand.

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Global Copper Demand 2040

Copper is essential for electricity transmission, renewable energy systems, and digital infrastructure. 

According to S&P Global, global copper demand 2040 will be shaped by electrification trends, with Asia accounting for 60 percent of growth due to EV adoption and grid modernization. 

Credit: S&P Global

The expansion of AI data centers adds a new layer of demand, as these facilities require extensive copper wiring and cooling systems to support high-performance computing. 

This surge in consumption underscores copper’s role as a backbone of both industrial and digital economies.

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Copper Supply-Demand Gap 10 Million Tons

While demand is rising, supply growth faces structural challenges. Mining output is expected to peak around 2030, with limited new projects coming online. 

Recycling, though helpful, cannot fully offset the shortfall. 

Analysts estimate a copper supply-demand gap of 10 million tons annually by 2040, representing nearly 30 percent of total demand. 

This imbalance raises the risk of price volatility and potential bottlenecks in industries reliant on copper, from energy grids to AI infrastructure.

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S&P Global Copper in the Age of AI

The S&P Global Copper in the Age of AI report warns that emerging technologies could accelerate demand beyond current forecasts. AI data centers, defense applications, and electrification initiatives may push total copper demand up 50 percent by 2040. 

The report emphasizes that mining and recycling are unlikely to keep pace, making shortages a realistic scenario unless significant investment is made in new supply chains. 

This analysis highlights the urgency for governments and companies to secure copper resources as part of long-term strategic planning.

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Regional Drivers of Copper Demand

Asia remains the dominant growth engine, with China, India, and Southeast Asia investing heavily in EVs, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure. Europe and North America also contribute through grid upgrades and AI expansion, but their growth is slower compared to Asia. 

The regional imbalance suggests that copper markets will be increasingly influenced by Asian consumption patterns, particularly in technology and energy sectors.

Conclusion

Copper demand is set to surge by 127 percent in AI data centers alone, adding pressure to an already strained supply chain. 

With global copper demand projected to reach 42 million tons by 2040 and a supply-demand gap of 10 million tons looming, the risk of shortages is significant. 

S&P Global’s Copper in the Age of AI report underscores the structural challenges facing mining and recycling, making investment in new supply critical. 

Whether the world can meet this demand will determine not only the future of electrification but also the stability of digital infrastructure in the age of AI.

FAQ

What is the global copper demand forecast for 2040?

It is projected to reach 42 million tons, up from 28 million tons today.

How much will AI data centers increase copper demand?

AI data centers could lift demand by 127 percent, adding 2.5 million tons.

What is the copper supply-demand gap by 2040?

Analysts expect a 10 million ton annual deficit, nearly 30 percent of demand.

Why is Asia driving copper demand growth?

Asia accounts for 60 percent of growth due to EV adoption and grid modernization.

What does the S&P Global Copper in the Age of AI report warn?

It warns that mining and recycling cannot keep pace, making shortages likely without new investment.

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