$9.87B Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expiry Today — Will Prices Move?

A massive $9.87 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, April 24, 2026. This monthly expiration represents roughly a quarter of all open options contracts, making it a significant event that could influence short-term price movements. But will it trigger a sell-off, a rally, or just a quiet drift toward max pain levels? Let's break it down.

Key Takeaways

• $9.87 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today — 109,000 BTC (max pain $72K, actual price $77.7K) and 563,000 ETH (max pain $2.2K, actual price $2,314).

• BTC put/call ratio at 0.93 and ETH at 0.72 signal bullish sentiment (more calls than puts). Implied volatility has dropped below 40% for BTC and 60% for ETH — no FOMO in the market.

• Most likely outcome: modest pullback toward max pain levels ($72K-$74K for BTC, $2.2K-$2.25K for ETH) followed by stabilization. 75% of open interest remains in future expirations.

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Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expiry: The Numbers

According to Greeks.live macro researcher Adam, the expiration data for April 24 is as follows. 

For Bitcoin, 109,000 BTC options are expiring with a put/call ratio of 0.93, a max pain level of $72,000, and a notional value of $8.55 billion. 

For Ethereum, 563,000 ETH options are expiring with a put/call ratio of 0.72, a max pain level of $2,200, and a notional value of $1.32 billion. Combined, these two assets total $9.87 billion in expiring options.

A put/call ratio below 1 indicates that call options, which are bets on price increases, outnumber put options, which are bets on price decreases. Both Bitcoin's 0.93 and Ethereum's 0.72 signal a mildly bullish sentiment among options traders heading into expiration.

What Is Max Pain in Options and Why Does It Matter?

Max pain is the price level at which option buyers would suffer the greatest financial loss, while option sellers, typically market makers and institutions, would profit the most. 

Historically, spot prices tend to gravitate toward max pain levels as expiration approaches because market makers hedge their positions in ways that pull the market toward that price.

For Bitcoin, the max pain level is $72,000. 

However, Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,700, meaning it sits roughly $5,700 above max pain. 

For Ethereum, the max pain level is $2,200, while the current price is approximately $2,314, or about $114 above max pain. 

The gap is significantly larger for Bitcoin, suggesting that if the typical gravitational pull toward max pain plays out, Bitcoin may have more downside pressure than Ethereum in the short term.

Where Does the Market Stand Right Now?

Bitcoin has been on a strong run, recently breaking above $78,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,696 with a market cap of $1.55 trillion. 

Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,314 with a market cap of $279 billion. Both assets have seen steady gains over the past week, supported by ETF inflows, easing geopolitical tensions, and a generally improving macro outlook.

The Web3 conference in Hong Kong has been filled with a cheerful, bullish atmosphere, and the altcoin market is showing signs of recovery. 

This broader positive sentiment provides a supportive backdrop, even as options expiry looms.

Notably, implied volatility, which measures the market's expectation of future price swings, has been declining. 

Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped below 40%, and Ethereum's has fallen to around 60%. Both are down from earlier in the month, and the fact that skew has also declined suggests that the market is not exhibiting FOMO or extreme fear. Instead, the rally appears steady rather than speculative.

Read also : Understanding John Bollinger's Bitcoin & XRP Analysis: The Need for Relief from Capital Drain

Open Interest Distribution: Beyond Today's Expiry

Not all open interest expires today. According to the data, 12% of options contracts are set to expire at the end of May, and another 24% will expire at the end of June. 

This means that while today's expiration is significant, a large portion of the market is still positioned for the coming months. 

This longer-dated open interest can act as a stabilizing force, preventing today's event from causing excessive volatility.

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Three Possible Scenarios

The first scenario is that prices hold above max pain. If Bitcoin and Ethereum maintain their current levels through expiration, it would signal underlying strength. 

Option sellers would be forced to cover or roll their positions, potentially driving prices even higher. 

In this case, Bitcoin could target $80,000 to $82,000, while Ethereum could reach $2,400 to $2,500.

The second and most common scenario is that prices drift toward max pain. As expiration approaches, market makers hedge their positions, and spot prices often move closer to the max pain level. 

For Bitcoin, this would mean a pullback to the $72,000 to $74,000 range. For Ethereum, a move toward $2,200 to $2,250. This would not be a bearish signal, merely options mechanics playing out as expected.

The third scenario is a post-expiration rally. Once options settle, the "pin" near max pain is removed. 

If traders roll their positions into May and June contracts, and if the broader bullish trend remains intact, prices could resume their upward momentum. In this case, Bitcoin could target $82,000 or higher, and Ethereum could move above $2,500.

What Should Traders Watch Today?

There are a few key things to monitor:

• First, watch how price behaves relative to the max pain levels. If Bitcoin stays above $75,000 through expiration, that is a bullish sign. If it drops toward $72,000, that is likely just options mechanics rather than a true change in trend.

• Second, keep an eye on trading volume. Higher-than-average volume at expiration indicates active positioning and could lead to sharper moves. 

• Third, watch implied volatility after settlement. If IV rises, it suggests new uncertainty has entered the market. If it continues to fall, the calm is likely to persist.

• Finally, monitor where open interest rolls to. If traders aggressively open new positions in May and June, it signals confidence in the continued rally. If open interest shrinks significantly, it could indicate that traders are stepping to the sidelines.

Conclusion

For long-term investors, today's expiry is unlikely to change the broader trajectory. 

For short-term traders, it presents an opportunity to observe how the market handles a large expiration event. 

Either way, the fundamentals remain supportive: ETF inflows, easing geopolitical tensions, and a recovering altcoin market all point to continued strength in the months ahead.

FAQ

How much Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today?

109,000 BTC options worth $8.55 billion and 563,000 ETH options worth $1.32 billion expire today, for a total of $9.87 billion.

What is the max pain level for Bitcoin and Ethereum?

Bitcoin's max pain is $72,000, and Ethereum's max pain is $2,200. Current prices are $77,700 and $2,314 respectively.

Will prices drop because of options expiry?

They may drift toward max pain levels, but a sharp crash is unlikely. Implied volatility is low, and the broader market sentiment is bullish.

What percentage of open interest is expiring today?

Approximately 25% of all open options contracts expire today. Another 12% expire at the end of May, and 24% at the end of June.

Is the market showing FOMO?

No. Skew has fallen, and implied volatility has declined, indicating that the rally is steady rather than speculative. The market is optimistic but not overheated.

What should I watch after expiry?

Monitor whether open interest rolls into May and June contracts. If traders open new positions, it signals confidence. If open interest shrinks, caution may be warranted.

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