21Shares Predicts BTC Will Return to $100,000 by the End of 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) is under pressure after falling sharply from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. Despite the downturn, 21Shares says the cycle may still be intact. 

In its midyear outlook, the firm maintains a base case that BTC could return to $100,000 by the end of 2026, arguing that current price action still resembles past post-halving patterns.

Key Takeaways

• 21Shares predict Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by late 2026.
• The firm says the current pullback aligns with historical post-halving cycles.
• Risks remain, including ETF outflows, weak sentiment, and macro uncertainty.

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BTC Price Prediction According to 21Shares

Source: 21Shares

The latest BTC price prediction according to 21Shares comes from its 2026 midyear review. The firm reassessed earlier forecasts and concluded that Bitcoin still has a path to recovery despite recent losses.

Bitcoin was trading near $62,300 on June 24, down roughly 50% from its peak. Even so, 21Shares argues the market has not reached full capitulation. This is why the phrase 21shares predict bitcoin price has gained attention among traders.

The forecast is not a guarantee. It reflects a base case built on historical cycles, investor cost data, and evolving market structure.

Read also: Bitcoin Treasury Companies Explained: Strategy, Metaplanet, mNAV, and the Corporate BTC Risk Trade

Why the $100,000 Target Matters

The $100,000 level is both a psychological milestone and a potential recovery benchmark. A return to this level would suggest the current decline is a correction rather than a structural breakdown.

However, skepticism remains. Bitcoin faces pressure from ETF outflows, reduced risk appetite, and competition from other sectors. The 21Shares view highlights that short-term weakness does not necessarily invalidate long-term trends.

Post-Halving Cycle Still Relevant

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, tied to halving events, remains central to the 21Shares outlook. Historically, BTC rallies after halvings and later enters a correction phase.

While some expected Bitcoin to break this pattern due to institutional adoption and ETFs, 21Shares says the cycle still appears intact. Market behavior continues to reflect familiar patterns, even in a more mature environment.

Investor Cost Basis Signals Stability

A key factor supporting the forecast is Bitcoin’s aggregate investor cost basis, estimated near $54,000. In past bear markets, BTC often fell below this level during deep capitulation.

So far, Bitcoin has stayed above it. This suggests the current downturn is less severe than previous cycles, where declines exceeded 80%. According to 21Shares, this indicates stronger underlying support.

Read also: Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Treasury Pivot and the End of Its Healthcare Era

ETF Flows and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin ETFs remain a major influence on price trends. Global crypto ETP assets reached about $140 billion in May 2026, with BTC holdings around 1.25 million coins.

Although US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $3 billion in net outflows, 21Shares notes that most declines were driven by price changes rather than large-scale selling. Institutional exposure remains significant, even as sentiment weakens.

Risks to the Forecast

The 21Shares predict Bitcoin outlook comes with clear risks:

• Continued ETF outflows could pressure prices
• Macroeconomic conditions may limit recovery
• Large holder sales could impact sentiment
• Weak retail demand may slow momentum

These factors mean the $100,000 target should be viewed as a possibility, not a certainty.

Shift From Narrative to Fundamentals

21Shares emphasizes a broader shift in crypto from hype-driven narratives to measurable fundamentals. Its 2026 outlook focuses on ETF flows, stablecoin adoption, tokenization, and real-world use cases.

While some sectors, like prediction markets, have exceeded expectations, others such as DeFi have lagged. Bitcoin’s recovery may depend on broader ecosystem growth, not just historical cycles.

What This Means for Investors

The BTC price prediction according to 21Shares offers a long-term benchmark rather than a trading signal. A move to $100,000 would require stronger demand, improved sentiment, and stabilizing ETF flows.

Investors should recognize both sides: the potential for recovery and the ongoing uncertainty. Bitcoin’s path forward depends on liquidity, confidence, and macro conditions.

Read also: Bitcoin Holds Above $64,000 After Fed's Hawkish Hold and Dot Plot Spike

Conclusion

21Shares predict Bitcoin could return to $100,000 by the end of 2026, even after a steep decline from its 2025 high. The firm believes the current pullback still fits within historical post-halving cycles and has not reached full capitulation.

While the outlook is cautiously optimistic, risks remain. The 21shares predict bitcoin price narrative highlights a possible recovery, but not a guaranteed one. The coming months will determine whether Bitcoin can regain momentum and validate this forecast.

FAQ

What did 21Shares predict for Bitcoin?

21Shares predicted Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.

What is the BTC price prediction according to 21Shares?

The BTC price prediction according to 21Shares is a potential recovery to around $100,000.

Why does 21Shares think Bitcoin can recover?

The firm believes current price action still follows historical post-halving cycles and has not shown full capitulation.

What was Bitcoin’s recent peak?

Bitcoin reached about $126,000 in October 2025.

What is the investor cost basis mentioned?

It is the average acquisition price for investors, estimated near $54,000.

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