FOMC October Meeting: Why Goldman Sachs Expects a Rate Hike Skip

The FOMC October meeting could deliver what crypto traders have wanted since September: a pause.

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, then deliver a second and final hike in December.

Markets broadly agree, with rate futures pricing roughly a 91% chance of a hold.

For Bitcoin, which is fighting to stay above $80,000, the tone of this decision may matter as much as the decision itself.

Key Takeaways

• Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to skip a hike on October 28 and raise rates for the final time in December.
• The forecast rests on an every other meeting cadence, with core PCE inflation still above the 2% target.
• According to Bitrue Research Institute, a skip would ease liquidity pressure and support Bitcoin first, with altcoins likely to follow.

What to Expect at the FOMC October Meeting

The FOMC meets on October 27 and 28, with the decision due at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.

This is the first meeting since the Fed's September 2026 decision, when policymakers voted 12 to 0 to raise rates by 25 basis points.

At the time, 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more increase before the end of 2026.

Since then, the data has cooled the urgency, with August PCE inflation at 3% and September payrolls adding just 29,000 jobs.

With no fresh dot plot, traders will focus on the statement and Warsh's guidance on December.

Why Goldman Sachs Expects the Fed to Skip October

In its October 25 report, Goldman Sachs moved its next hike call from October to December.

Here's why the bank expects a pause this week:

• FOMC participants appear to be converging on a compromise of hiking every other meeting rather than at consecutive ones.
• Financial conditions have tightened by about 30 basis points since September, roughly one hike's worth, but not enough to replace an actual hike.
• Core PCE inflation sits 1.1 percentage points above the 2% target, driven by tariffs, energy shocks linked to Iran and AI related price pressures.
• The bar for another hike in March is high, which makes December the likely final increase of this cycle.

A December hike would lift the range to 4.00% to 4.25%, and Goldman still expects rate cuts once inflation improves in 2027.

The main risk to this view is a fresh oil spike from the Middle East, which could keep inflation sticky for longer.

Sign up on Bitrue to track Bitcoin and trade the market reaction to the FOMC October meeting as it unfolds.

Bitrue Research Institute Findings on FOMC Impact for Crypto

According to Bitrue Research Institute, higher rates raise the reward for holding cash and bonds, leaving less money and thinner volume for riskier assets such as crypto.

That makes an October skip bullish, because it removes one round of tightening from the near term path.

Here's what Bitrue Research Institute expects from a hold:

• Bitcoin should react first, since it is the most liquid crypto asset and the main gateway for institutional flows.
• A steady Bitcoin after the decision would signal room for Ethereum, XRP and other altcoins to follow.
• A hawkish tone from Warsh could still cap any rally, especially with 10 year Treasury yields near 5%.

Bitcoin enters the meeting near $80,000 after touching about $79,100 on October 24, its lowest level since mid September, following a rejection near $85,000.

According to Bitrue Research Institute, holding $79,000 through the decision keeps the recovery case alive, while a clean move back above $85,000 would confirm the market is pricing a softer path.

How Bitrue AI Helps You Read Bitcoin Through the FOMC

Because Bitcoin tends to move first on FOMC days, Bitrue AI helps you turn that early signal into AI generated grid strategies.

Here's what Bitrue AI shows before you commit funds:

• Each strategy card lists the pair, leverage, price range, grid direction, 30 day backtested APY and drawdown.
• The detail page explains why the AI chose that strategy, range and grid count, plus the levels that would invalidate it.

You can launch the AI Recommended setup or customise it, choosing Isolated margin to limit risk to the strategy's funds or Cross margin to draw on your wider futures balance.

Backtested returns are not guaranteed, so set a clear take profit and keep leverage modest during a volatile event week.

Conclusion

The FOMC October meeting is shaping up as a pause, with Goldman Sachs expecting a final hike in December rather than this week.

A skip would not end the tightening cycle, but it would slow the pace at which liquidity leaves the market.

According to Bitrue Research Institute, that gives Bitcoin the first chance to stabilise, and its reaction will set the tone for the rest of crypto.

Traders can explore an AI grid strategy on Bitcoin with Bitrue AI and manage the volatility with clear limits.

FAQ

When is the FOMC October Meeting?

The FOMC meets on October 27 and 28, 2026, with the rate decision announced at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28.

Will the Fed Raise Rates in October?

Most forecasts, including Goldman Sachs, expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in October.

What is Goldman Sachs' Fed Rate Prediction for 2026?

Goldman Sachs expects one more 25 basis point hike in December, which would be the final increase of the cycle.

What is the Fed Every Other Meeting Cadence?

It is a compromise approach in which the Fed raises rates at alternate meetings rather than at consecutive ones.

How Does a Rate Hike Skip Affect Crypto?

According to Bitrue Research Institute, a skip eases liquidity pressure and tends to support Bitcoin first before altcoins follow.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.