Is Bitcoin Turning Bullish Again? These Indicators Show Signs

2025-09-17

Bitcoin’s recent performance has once again sparked the question that traders and investors never tire of asking: is Bitcoin turning bullish again? After months of mixed signals and choppy market action, a fresh set of on-chain and behavioral indicators now suggest that momentum could be shifting in favor of the bulls.

Unlike traditional chart-based technical analysis, on-chain data provides a window into Bitcoin’s internal economy tracking how coins move, how miners behave, and how long-term holders respond to price changes. These metrics often precede major rallies, making them invaluable for anticipating trend reversals.

At present, the picture is mixed but encouraging: signals such as the NVT Golden Cross and miner activity lean positive, while Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and exchange flows introduce mild caution. The result is a market environment that looks structurally bullish but requires vigilance.

So, could Bitcoin be on the verge of its next major rally, potentially eyeing the $150,000 mark? Let’s explore the data.

Bitcoin Bullish Signals Are Emerging

Several core metrics point toward a healthier structure for Bitcoin’s price. While caution is never unwarranted in crypto markets, the data paints a picture of supportive conditions for growth.

NVT Golden Cross: Neutral Zone With Growth Potential

The NVT Golden Cross which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its transaction volume currently sits at 0.3.

Why does this matter? Think of it as a P/E ratio for Bitcoin: it shows whether the asset is overheated or undervalued relative to blockchain activity. Historically, values above 2 have marked overheated markets, while negative readings highlight deep accumulation zones.

At 0.3, Bitcoin is comfortably in the middle, suggesting there is still room to expand without sliding into speculative excess. This balance signals a market that is healthy, not euphoric, leaving space for further appreciation.

Exchange Flows: Mild Profit-Taking, Not Panic

Exchange inflows tell another part of the story. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) linked to deposits rose 3.17%, meaning some long-term holders are moving coins onto trading platforms.

Such behavior is often associated with profit-taking. But the scale here is small. Instead of widespread selling, the data suggests strategic repositioning. Investors are trimming exposure at the edges, not abandoning their positions, which keeps overall selling pressure contained.

Coin Days Destroyed: Dormant Coins on the Move

The broader Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric rose nearly 6%, showing that older coins those untouched for long stretches are becoming active again.

Historically, sharp spikes in CDD have preceded volatility. Dormant coins often move when seasoned investors decide the price is attractive for selling.

Yet today’s rise is moderate compared to those past spikes, suggesting:

This is more about healthy rotation than panic distribution.
Supply is being reactivated in a controlled way.

Still, traders should watch this metric closely. If it accelerates, it could foreshadow short-term turbulence.

Miners’ Position Index: No Selling Pressure

Bitcoin miners are a crucial piece of the supply puzzle. Their selling habits can influence price significantly. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) spiked by 150% in one day, but its absolute level remains very low at 0.10.

This is important because:

High MPI = miners selling aggressively into rallies.
Low MPI = miners holding reserves, easing supply pressure.

With MPI near the floor, miners are not rushing to sell. This restraint strengthens the bullish case by keeping sell-side pressure minimal.

Key On-Chain Indicators Supporting a Bullish Cycle

Beyond the near-term picture, several long-standing indicators support the thesis of a developing bull cycle.

MVRV Z-Score: The Value Compass

The MVRV Z-Score compares market value with realized value the price at which coins last moved.

Bull markets often start when the score climbs from deep undervaluation zones.
Market tops historically occur above 7.

Today’s levels remain comfortably below danger territory, suggesting ample room for appreciation.

Puell Multiple: Miner Optimism Returns

The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to historical averages, is rising after a long subdued phase.

This signals returning profitability for miners.
When paired with restrained selling, it indicates miners are optimistic about higher future prices.

Long-Term Holder Behavior: The Strong Hands Factor

Long-term holders (LTHs) often dictate market cycles. Reduced selling and steady accumulation from this group form the foundation of bull markets. Current trends show that most LTHs remain confident, signaling strong conviction.

Exchange Flows & Network Growth

Declining exchange inflows suggest limited immediate selling pressure.
Growth in active addresses and consistent transaction activity reflect organic adoption a critical factor for sustaining long-term rallies.

Historical Context: Why These Signals Matter

Bitcoin’s major bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2020–2021 each followed a similar script. On-chain indicators flipped from neutral to bullish, miners grew more profitable while holding reserves, and dormant coins re-entered circulation in phases rather than floods.

Today’s environment reflects many of those same ingredients. While no two cycles are identical, the echoes of past rallies lend weight to the argument that Bitcoin could be preparing for another leg higher.

The Trader’s Angle: What to Watch Next

For traders navigating the next phase of Bitcoin’s journey, the following indicators deserve close monitoring:

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): Watch for sharp spikes, which could precede corrections.
Miners’ Position Index (MPI): Rising values could indicate stronger selling pressure.
NVT Golden Cross trajectory: If it moves toward overheated levels, risk of a pullback grows.

Until these caution flags emerge, the structure supports a move higher. Analysts believe targets near $150,000 are achievable if bullish momentum persists and supply pressure remains low.

Conclusion

The evidence points to a market leaning bullish: the NVT Golden Cross reflects room for growth, exchange inflows show only modest profit-taking, and miners remain reluctant to sell. While dormant coin activity is increasing, it has not yet reached levels that threaten stability.

Taken together, Bitcoin’s trajectory looks positive, with structural support for further gains. The only caveat is the need to monitor long-term holder movements and miner behavior in case selling pressure builds.

Unless those warning signs accelerate, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to extend its rally into the next phase of the cycle.

FAQ

Is Bitcoin officially in a bull market now?

Not formally, but on-chain signals suggest we are in the early stages of a bullish cycle.

What does the NVT Golden Cross mean for Bitcoin right now?

At 0.3, it shows the balance BTC has room to grow without speculative excess.

Why are some long-term holders moving coins?

They are engaging in modest profit-taking, not large-scale selling.

How do miners affect Bitcoin’s price?

Low MPI means miners are holding reserves, which reduces supply pressure and supports bullish sentiment.

Could Bitcoin realistically reach $150,000?

Yes. If bullish on-chain trends continue and selling pressure stays low, Bitcoin could target six figures in this cycle.

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