Is Bitcoin Still Correlated to Nasdaq?

For years now, the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has increasingly been compared with major equities indices—especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). 

As institutional adoption grows and macro factors dominate markets, many investors ask: Is Bitcoin still correlated to the Nasdaq? 

This article examines the evolution of the Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation, what drives the relationship, and what that means for investors and portfolios.

Historical Correlation: From Independence to Convergence

In its early years, Bitcoin moved largely independent of broad equity markets. Back in the 2010s, the correlation between Bitcoin and major equity indices like the Nasdaq or S&P 500 Index (SPX) was low, often near zero.

However, from around 2020 onward, this changed. Daily correlation coefficients for Bitcoin to SPX/NDX moved from roughly 0.20 (Jan 2014-Apr 2025 average) to around 0.40 during 2020-22.

Meanwhile, a research note by Grayscale Investments found that since 2019, the monthly returns of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq showed a correlation of about ~40 %. At points, short-term 30-day rolling correlations surged to 70% according to analysts at Matrixport.

In essence, Bitcoin increasingly behaved like a risk asset, often moving in tandem with growth stocks.

Read Also: How to Buy Bitcoin (BTC)

Why the Correlation Increased

Why did this convergence happen? Several factors appear to have aligned:

• Institutional adoption: As institutional players (hedge funds, corporations, ETFs) entered Bitcoin, their allocation decisions often mirrored their equity exposure.
  
   
• Risk-on/risk-off dynamics: When equities are booming or crashing, Bitcoin seems to participate. Higher positive correlations are frequently observed during periods of market stress.
  
   
• Macro drivers: Shared exposure to interest rates, inflation expectations, and liquidity flows means Bitcoin and Nasdaq respond to similar macro impulses.
  
   
• Volatility and beta effect: Some see Bitcoin as a “high-beta” equity proxy, when equities rally, Bitcoin often rallies more; when equities sell off, Bitcoin loses more.

Thus the rising correlation arguably reflects Bitcoin’s evolution from niche digital asset to a mainstream component of growth/tech-oriented portfolios.

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Signs of Decoupling and What It Means

Despite the strong coupling in prior years, lately, there are signs that the correlation may be weakening or shifting. 

For example, in April 2025, an article noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq dropped to ~0.53, as Bitcoin started veering toward a “digital gold” narrative. 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks shows signs of breaking down.

Why might this happen? Possible reasons:

• Differentiation of narratives: Bitcoin may be increasingly viewed as a store of value (like “digital gold”), rather than purely a growth-tech asset.
  
   
• Tail event behavior: Bitcoin’s unique supply schedule (halving events), regulatory shocks, and crypto-specific drivers can cause it to lapse out of sync with equities.
  
   
• Portfolio diversification and hedging: Some investors may start reducing Bitcoin’s correlation by treating it as a separate axis of diversification.
  
   
• Market regime changes: If equities move sideways or decline while Bitcoin has its own drivers (crypto regulation, token issuance, mining shifts), correlation may drift.

For investors, a decoupling could mean that Bitcoin may offer more potential diversification benefit—but it could also be less predictable.

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Read Also: $12 Trillion Question: Is Bitcoin About to Overtake Gold as the World’s Top Store of Value?

Implications for Investors and Portfolios

So what does this mean for you as an investor or trader? Here are some takeaways.

• Portfolio construction: If Bitcoin remains highly correlated with equities, it may not offer much diversification benefit in equity-heavy portfolios. But if correlation drops, it could serve as a genuine alternative asset.
  
   
• Risk management: Recognising that Bitcoin behaves like a high-beta equity may sharpen risk controls. In equity sell-offs, Bitcoin may drop harder and faster.
  
   
• Timing and narrative: In growth-oriented, risk-on environments, Bitcoin may outperform equities; in risk-off, it may underperform or become correlated with equities as a “risk asset.”
  
   
• Hedging strategies: If Bitcoin decouples and begins behaving more like gold or a hedge, it could complement equity holdings rather than mirror them.
  
   
• Stay alert to regime shifts: Monitoring correlation metrics (30-day/90-day rolling), institutional flows, macro drivers, and crypto-specific catalysts matters.

In short: whether Bitcoin remains tightly tied to the Nasdaq or begins charting its own path has real strategic consequences.

Read Also: Nasdaq Pushes SEC Approval to Tokenize Stocks on Blockchain

Conclusion

To the question “Is Bitcoin still correlated to the Nasdaq?”, the answer is nuanced: yes, it still is to a significant extent, but the strength of that correlation varies over time and market regime. 

Historically, correlation rose strongly post-2020 as Bitcoin became more institutionalised and growth-oriented. 

However, signs of decoupling are emerging, offering potential diversification avenues, and new risks. For investors, the key is not just to note correlation levels, but to understand why they move, when they change, and how that impacts portfolio positioning.

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FAQ

What is the current correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100?

Recent studies show the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has at times reached ~70%. However, other analyses show rolling correlations nearer ~0.48 in early 2025.

Why does Bitcoin correlate with the Nasdaq in the first place?

Because both assets are influenced by similar macro and market-risk drivers (liquidity, interest rates, investor risk appetite) and because institutional investors increasingly hold both, creating overlapping flows.

Is Bitcoin still a good diversification asset if it moves with stocks?

If Bitcoin remains tightly correlated with stocks, especially high-beta tech, then its diversification benefit is reduced. But if the correlation weakens or decouples, then Bitcoin may add genuine diversification. Ultimately, it depends on the correlation regime and portfolio mix.

Has Bitcoin ever decoupled from equities like the Nasdaq?

Yes. There have been periods where Bitcoin diverged from equities, such as during certain technical-driven crypto events, regulatory shocks or crypto-specific cycles. These divergences highlight that correlation is not constant.

Should investors monitor correlation metrics when investing in Bitcoin?

Absolutely. Rolling-window correlation statistics (30-day, 90-day) can signal when Bitcoin’s relationship with equities strengthens or weakens. That can inform portfolio allocation, risk controls, and strategy timing.