Is Bitcoin a Zero-Sum Game? Ferry Irwandi Explains Mathematically

Is Bitcoin just a speculative bet or truly a zero-sum game asset? In the YouTube video "Menjawab Zero Sum Game Bitcoin dengan Matematika", Ferry Irwandi presents a compelling, mathematical explanation of why Bitcoin behaves like a zero-sum game—especially in speculative markets. This article explores his breakdown of Bitcoin’s economic structure, why it may redistribute wealth rather than create it, and what this means for investors navigating Bitcoin speculation today. If you’re looking for Bitcoin zero sum game insights, mathematically explained, this is the deep dive you need.

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What Is a Zero-Sum Game in Bitcoin?

A zero-sum game is an economic or mathematical concept where one participant's gain is exactly balanced by another participant's loss. The total value in the system remains constant, someone wins, someone loses.

When people say “Bitcoin is a zero-sum game,” they mean that:

“ Any profit someone makes from holding or trading Bitcoin must come from someone else’s loss. There's no external value being created it's just a redistribution of money already in the system “

Why Bitcoin Is Often Called a Zero-Sum Game

Limited Supply = Fixed Pie

• Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million BTC.
• No new value is generated through productivity or dividends.
• So, if the price rises, it's usually because someone else is willing to pay more, not because Bitcoin produces income.

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Trading Is Competitive

• For every winning trader or long-term investor (HODLer), there’s often a losing short-term speculator.
• Unlike companies that can grow and create new wealth, Bitcoin depends on price speculation.

No Cash Flow or Yield

• Stocks, bonds, or real estate generate income.
• Bitcoin gains must come from capital appreciation, which relies on new buyers entering at a higher price.

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Real-World Analogy

Imagine 10 people playing poker with $1,000 on the table.

• Total value = $1,000.
• If one person wins $300, others lose a combined $300.
• The pot doesn’t grow on its own—this is zero-sum.
   

Bitcoin often operates the same way, profit comes from others’ losses in market activity.

Bitcoin Zero Sum Game According to Ferry Irwandi’s YouTube Video

source : YT Ferry Irwandi 

In the YouTube video by Ferry Irwandi, he explains that

“Bitcoin is not a value-creating asset. If someone makes a profit, someone else must bear the loss either directly (selling at a lower price) or indirectly (missing out on the same gain).”

He argues that Bitcoin is a zero sum game asset because:

• There’s no cash flow to distribute.
• Speculative trading dominates the market.
• Gains are redistributed, not created.
• One person’s win = Another person’s loss

Read Also : How to buy Bitcoin (BTC)

Figures Used by Ferry Irwandi to Illustrate Bitcoin’s Zero-Sum Nature

In the video, Ferry uses several numerical illustrations. For example, if Investor A buys 1 BTC at $1,000 and later sells it at $20,000, then Investor B who buys at $20,000 must either:

• Sell at a higher price to another buyer (Investor C), or
• Absorb the loss if the price drops or stays the same

He also demonstrates how market capitalization isn’t money in the bank. If 1 BTC trades at $30,000, it doesn’t mean all 21 million coins are worth that much in liquid value it only reflects the price of the last transaction

Summary of Ferry Irwandi’s Video Timestamps:

• (00:10–00:47) Ferry explains that he will address the Bitcoin zero-sum game issue using mathematical models rather than opinions or debates.
• (01:11–01:37) He refers to arguments made by Suli (a professional trader), Andrew (an investor), and Gabriel Rey (Triv founder), who have publicly shared their views.
• (02:22–02:49) Ferry urges viewers to avoid ad hominem arguments and instead debate with data and mathematical language.
• (03:24–03:48) He defines a zero-sum system using a basic equation: x - y = 0, where one's profit equals another’s loss.
• (04:21–05:06) Bitcoin has no yield or intrinsic cash flow; value comes only from fiat entering the market. Price increases occur when cash inflow exceeds outflow.
• (05:06–05:51) If used for speculation, Bitcoin behaves like a zero-sum game. This applies to other assets too (e.g., stocks, gold) in speculative contexts.
• (06:30–07:32) Gabriel Rey’s claim that Bitcoin isn’t zero-sum due to production costs is challenged. Ferry says this actually supports a negative-sum game view, where total system losses outweigh gains.
• (07:32–08:33) Bitcoin may not be zero-sum when used in high-inflation countries (e.g., Venezuela, Argentina) or for international money transfers.
• (08:51–09:15) Conclusion: Bitcoin’s structure depends on use case. For speculation → zero-sum; for store-of-value or utility → potentially positive-sum.
• (09:15–09:38) Relying on mining cost to prove value is flawed logic. This argument can hurt the crypto industry if interpreted as economic inefficiency.

Bitcoin Zero Sum Game Mathematically Explained

Bitcoin’s total supply is limited to 21 million BTC. This fixed supply makes it different from fiat currencies, which can be printed at will by central banks. Because there will never be more than 21 million BTC, any gain in market value must come from price increases—not from increased supply or cash flows.

Market Cap of Bitcoin = BTC Supply × Price per BTC

If Investor A sells BTC at a profit, that profit must come from someone who is willing to buy at a higher price—Investor B. This makes it a zero sum game mathematically, because:

∑(Investor Gains) + ∑(Investor Losses) = 0

No new wealth is created; it's just redistributed. In Ferry Irwandi’s economic framing, this dynamic is further reinforced by the lack of intrinsic cash flows. If we denote:

• B = Total BTC supply (fixed)
• P = Price per BTC
• V = Total market value of BTC = B × P
• Gᵢ = Profit of investor i = (P_sell - P_buy) × Amount held

∑Gᵢ = 0 (Across the system, gains are balanced by losses)

This explains why Ferry calls it a mathematically zero-sum system: wealth does not grow within BTC itself—it only shifts hands depending on price movements

Bitcoin vs Yield Producing Assets

Bitcoin does not generate income. Unlike stocks (which pay dividends) or real estate (which generates rental income), Bitcoin’s only return comes from price appreciation.

• There are no inherent cash flows from BTC.
• Returns depend entirely on someone else buying at a higher price.
• This reflects the greater fool theory, each investor hopes to sell to someone else at a higher price.
   

FAQ

What is a zero-sum game in economics?

A zero-sum game is a situation where one party’s gain is exactly offset by another party’s loss. The total net change in wealth or benefit is zero.

Is Bitcoin always a zero-sum game?

Not necessarily. According to Ferry Irwandi, Bitcoin behaves like a zero-sum game in speculative contexts. But it could be non-zero-sum if used for real economic utility like cross-border payments or as a hedge in inflationary economies.

Why is Bitcoin considered a zero-sum game asset?

Because Bitcoin doesn’t produce income. The only way to earn is by selling it at a higher price to someone else—making one person’s profit dependent on another’s expense.

Can Bitcoin be a positive-sum game?

In theory, yes. If Bitcoin adoption leads to increased financial inclusion, cheaper remittances, or replaces inflationary fiat in unstable economies, it could create positive-sum outcomes.

What’s Ferry Irwandi’s main point in the video?

Ferry Irwandi argues that Bitcoin’s current speculative use fits a zero-sum mathematical model. Gains come from price movements driven by fiat inflows not from value creation within the asset itself.