Will Petroleum's Price Go Up? Looking at Recent News

Global oil prices are once again under the spotlight, with a convergence of geopolitical conflict, domestic fuel price adjustments, and looming trade policy shifts pointing to a potential surge in petroleum costs.

From the Philippines to the Persian Gulf, and across the American economy, all signs suggest that oil markets may be heading into another volatile phase.

Philippine Fuel Prices: A Staggered Hike Instead of a Sudden Spike

In an attempt to soften the blow of rising global oil prices, oil companies in the Philippines have agreed to stagger what was initially expected to be a sharp fuel price increase this week.

The Department of Energy (DOE) announced on Monday that this decision followed a meeting between government officials and industry leaders.

According to Energy Officer-in-Charge Sharon Garin, diesel prices are projected to increase by ₱5 per liter, while gasoline may go up by ₱3.50 per liter.

These increases reflect growing global concerns over supply disruptions driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, Iran, and the United States.

While the price hike is inevitable, oil companies have opted to implement it gradually. “This is really a request out of the kindness of their hearts,” Garin said, emphasizing that the government cannot mandate pricing structures in a deregulated market.

Companies have until the end of the day to submit their staggered pricing schemes to the DOE.

To cushion the impact on public transportation, a subsidy program is also in the works for operators and drivers of public utility vehicles.

Read Also: Oil prices skyrocket in Asia-Pacific region after Hormuz Strait closure

Geopolitical Tensions Driving Up Oil Prices

Source: Business Post Nigeria

At the heart of the global oil market instability lies the rising conflict in the Middle East. The United States recently launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, heightening fears of retaliation from Iran and further volatility in the oil market.

Analysts predict that oil prices could jump $5 per barrel when markets reopen, potentially pushing U.S. crude oil prices to $80 per barrel, a level not seen since January. "We are looking at $80 oil on the open,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.

Since Israel’s surprise military actions on June 13, oil prices have already risen by 10%, although they briefly dipped after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary two-week pause before deciding on further strikes.

Yet experts warn not to assume these price increases will hold long-term. "Just because the price of oil goes up, it doesn’t mean it will stay there,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Flashpoint

A key wildcard in this situation is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil supply flows. Iranian leaders have hinted at possibly closing the strait in response to the U.S. attacks, a move that could provoke a massive supply shock.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the country has “a variety of options,” and some political advisers have already called for the waterway's closure.

According to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, Iran may seek to manipulate oil prices as a form of deterrence. “They may decide the only thing that can dissuade President Trump is the fear of an oil price spike,” he noted.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that such a move would hurt economies dependent on Gulf oil, especially China, which purchases a third of the region’s oil, more than the United States, which now imports less than 3% of its petroleum from the Gulf.

Read Also: Strait of Hormuz History: From Ancient Trade Routes to Oil Superhighway

American Economy: Inflation Risks on the Horizon

Source: Fox Business

In the United States, the immediate concern is reigniting inflation. Energy prices had been relatively tame, offering relief to American consumers with gas prices dipping below $3 a gallon. But that calm could soon be over.

“If oil markets do surge today and tomorrow, it could start showing up at the pump in a matter of hours,” warned Patrick De Haan, VP of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

If Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Lipow estimates oil could spike to $100 a barrel, driving fuel prices up by 75 cents per gallon.

Compounding this situation is a mix of aggressive trade policies and geopolitical risks. Economists believe that the low inflation seen in the spring may give way to a summer surge, spurred by tariffs and energy shocks.

Conclusion

All current indicators suggest that oil prices are poised to rise in the short term, driven by geopolitical instability, supply concerns, and inflationary pressures.

However, whether this surge is sustained will depend heavily on diplomatic developments, particularly Iran’s response and whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

For now, both consumers and governments should brace for potential fuel price shocks while hoping for restraint in global diplomacy.

As oil prices fluctuate and global tensions escalate, the ripple effects extend far beyond energy markets, impacting inflation, trade, and even crypto.

Stay ahead of the curve by following the Bitrue Blog for real-time insights into how macroeconomic events influence the crypto ecosystem.

From oil to altcoins, Bitrue keeps you informed, always.

FAQ

Q1: Why are oil prices expected to increase?
A: Rising geopolitical tensions—especially the conflict involving Israel, Iran, and the U.S.—along with potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, are driving expectations of higher global oil prices.

Q2: How much will fuel prices rise in the Philippines?
A: Diesel prices are expected to increase by around ₱5 per liter, and gasoline by as much as ₱3.50 per liter, though oil companies will stagger the hikes to lessen the immediate impact.

Q3: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it important?

A: It’s a critical maritime chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows. If Iran blocks it in retaliation to U.S. strikes, global oil supplies could be severely disrupted.

Q4: How will rising oil prices affect the U.S. economy?
A: Higher oil prices could reignite inflation, especially after months of relative stability. American consumers may face rising gas and diesel prices within days of oil price spikes.

Q5: What does this have to do with cryptocurrency?
A: Energy prices and inflation often influence crypto market movements. Economic uncertainty can shift investor sentiment, driving volatility in digital asset prices.

Q6: How can I stay updated on how oil and global events affect crypto?
A: Follow the Bitrue Blog to stay informed on how macroeconomic and geopolitical developments intersect with the world of cryptocurrency.