The History of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart – Origins, Evolution, and Its Creators

In the world of cryptocurrency, where sentiment often drives price more than fundamentals, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart has carved out a unique space. 

A blend of data visualization, market psychology, and tongue-in-cheek design, it has become one of the most recognizable tools for gauging Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term trajectory—not through scientific precision, but through narrative and community engagement. Its evolution is as colorful as the chart itself.

What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart? 

At its core, it is a long-term valuation model that overlays a logarithmic regression curve of Bitcoin’s historical price performance with color-coded bands, each representing different sentiment zones ranging from “Buy!” to “Maximum Bubble Territory.” 

The chart does not attempt to predict short-term price movements but instead offers a broad view of Bitcoin’s historical cycles through an accessible and intuitive visual format.

Read more: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why These Two Patterns Are Key for the Next Bull Market

The Birth of a Meme Model—Trolololo’s Curve

The earliest version of what would become the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart was introduced in 2014 by a pseudonymous user known as Trolololo on the Bitcoin Talk forum. 

Trolololo’s contribution was a logarithmic regression model, intended to depict Bitcoin’s long-term price growth by smoothing out its chaotic short-term volatility. 

This curve—plotting price on a logarithmic scale against time—offered a compelling way to visualize Bitcoin’s cyclical nature without the distortion of exponential vertical axes.

It was never presented as a trading signal, nor was it designed to predict precise tops or bottoms. Instead, it offered something more valuable to a community often shaken by violent drawdowns: perspective.

Read more: Strategy Now Owns More than Half a Million BTC! Are They Going to Push the Price Themselves?

The Color Spectrum: Azop Adds the Rainbow

The chart’s next evolution came courtesy of Reddit user Azop, who took Trolololo’s technical model and added a creative overlay: color-coded bands, reminiscent of a rainbow, each representing a different valuation sentiment—from “Basically a Fire Sale” to “Maximum Bubble Territory.”

This shift was subtle yet powerful. By injecting color and relatable language into a dry mathematical curve, Azop transformed the chart from a technical curiosity into a narrative device. The rainbow became a way to express collective mood and market sentiment. 

Traders began to reference the bands when deciding whether to HODL, accumulate, or exit positions. Azop continued to update the chart through 2017, including extending its y-axis as Bitcoin surged past $20,000.

Read more: What is Bitcoin Dominance? A Strategic Guide to Trading the BTC DOM for Maximum Profit

Rohmeo and the Modern Rainbow Chart

After a brief period of dormancy, the chart was resurrected in 2019 by Rohmeo, the creator behind BlockchainCenter.net. At first, Rohmeo adopted Azop’s straight-line exponential growth model for a live version of the chart. 

However, recognizing the limitations of assuming infinite exponential growth, he later incorporated Trolololo’s original logarithmic regression formula—y = 2.9065ln(x) - 19.493.

This gave the chart a more realistic growth trajectory while maintaining the colorful bands. Rohmeo also updated the band labels to reflect more relevant investor sentiment, reinforcing the chart’s meme-like utility as a long-term morale booster and informal valuation guide.

From Cult Classic to Crypto Staple

Although niche in its early years, the Rainbow Chart found a second wind during the 2020 Bitcoin bull run. High-profile Bitcoiners like Eric Wall and Nic Carter shared it on social media, amplifying its reach to a new generation of investors. 

Wall’s tweet during the March 2020 COVID crash, labeling Bitcoin as in the “Buy!” zone, went viral, especially when the subsequent rally vindicated the sentiment embedded in the chart.

Read more: South Korean Banks Weigh Bitcoin Reserves Amid Global Crypto Shifts

Criticism and Recalibration: The 2022 Breach

Despite its popularity, the Rainbow Chart has never been without criticism. By late 2022, Bitcoin’s price fell below the lower bounds of the chart—something that hadn’t occurred in nearly a decade. 

This triggered debate within the community. Some saw it as the end of the model’s usefulness; others, including Rohmeo, saw it as a call to adapt.

Rather than abandon the chart, Rohmeo released Version 2 in November 2022. 

This version featured a recalibrated formula based on an additional nine years of Bitcoin price data, better accommodating market maturity and reduced volatility, while retaining the beloved color scheme.

Rainbow vs. Stock-to-Flow: A Philosophical Divide

While the Rainbow Chart was gaining traction as a visually engaging sentiment tool, it often found itself compared to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model popularized by PlanB. 

S2F, which relied on Bitcoin’s scarcity and halving cycles to predict price, was presented with scientific rigor—but it eventually lost credibility after repeated predictive failures.

In contrast, the Rainbow Chart embraced its meme status. It wasn’t about certainty; it was about context. That humility may be why it has endured, while models like S2F faded into skepticism.

Read more: North Korea Has More Bitcoin (BTC) Than El Salvador, Thanks to Lazarus?

Who Created the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart?

• Trolololo (2014) – Introduced the original logarithmic regression model.
  
   
• Azop (2014–2017) – Added the rainbow bands and valuation labels; popularized the chart on Reddit.
  
   
• Rohmeo (2019–present) – Revived and modernized the chart at BlockchainCenter.net, including a major 2022 update.

Final Thoughts

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is not a crystal ball, nor was it ever intended to be one. Yet its enduring relevance lies precisely in its lack of pretense. 

It distills over a decade of Bitcoin’s chaos into a single, color-coded arc of narrative continuity—equal parts chart, meme, and mythology.

Whether you believe in the chart’s price zones or see it as a cultural artifact of the crypto zeitgeist, one thing is certain: it has become an indelible part of Bitcoin’s visual history.

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FAQ

1. Is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart accurate for predicting future prices?

No. It’s a sentiment-based historical valuation tool, not a forecasting model. Its purpose is to visualize long-term price trends in a digestible, intuitive way—not to predict exact future price points.

2. Who maintains the chart today?

The chart is currently curated and updated by Rohmeo on BlockchainCenter.net, using a logarithmic regression formula with periodic adjustments based on evolving market data.

3. Can the Rainbow Chart be used for short-term trading decisions?

Not reliably. The chart is best suited for long-term investors seeking perspective during bull and bear cycles. Short-term traders should rely on more reactive technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and volume analysis.

4. Why did the chart need a Version 2?

After Bitcoin broke below the lower bounds of the original rainbow in 2022, it became clear that the model needed adjustment. Version 2 incorporated a revised formula to reflect Bitcoin’s evolving growth rate and reduced volatility.

5. What makes the Rainbow Chart popular despite its simplicity?

Its blend of data and humor, combined with visual clarity, makes it accessible to both crypto veterans and newcomers. It serves as a morale compass more than a trading strategy—a rare trait in a data-driven space often dominated by complexity.