Starbucks (SBUX) Price Analysis: Q2 Sales and Revenue Estimation

Starbucks (SBUX), the globally recognized coffeehouse chain, released its Q2 2025 financial results, revealing a complex picture of growth and challenges. 

While the company exceeded market expectations on revenue, it significantly missed analysts' profit estimates. These mixed results offer key insights for investors looking to evaluate Starbucks stock performance and its long-term outlook.

Starbucks Q2 2025 Financial Report Overview

In the quarter ending June 30, Starbucks reported total revenue of $9.46 billion, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year increase. This figure beat analyst expectations of $9.30 billion, signaling resilient top-line growth. 

However, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.50, falling 22.6% below consensus estimates of $0.65.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA dropped to $1.36 billion, representing a 9.7% miss from the projected $1.51 billion. Operating margin also declined sharply to 9.9%, down from 16.7% a year earlier. 

In contrast, free cash flow margin improved to 16%, up from 10.4% in the previous year, indicating better capital efficiency despite lower profitability.

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Starbucks Revenue Forecast and Growth Potential

With $36.69 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Starbucks continues to dominate the global coffee market. Its massive scale allows for supplier leverage and customer loyalty advantages. 

However, the brand's moderate 5.9% compounded annual growth rate over the last six years reveals a plateau in expansion, constrained by limited real estate and market saturation.

In Q2 2025, the company’s 3.8% year-over-year revenue growth matched this pattern, though it slightly surpassed Wall Street expectations. 

Analysts forecast a 5.2% growth rate over the next 12 months, in line with historical trends. While not overly impressive, the consistent growth signals stability in Starbucks' business model.

Starbucks Locations and Same-Store Sales Performance

Starbucks operated 41,097 locations globally by the end of Q2, up from 39,477 a year ago. This 5.7% annual expansion places Starbucks among the fastest-growing chains in terms of physical footprint.

However, same-store sales—a key metric of organic growth—fell 2% compared to the same quarter last year. This continues a concerning trend, with Starbucks averaging a 1% decline in same-store sales over the past two years. 

While the chain is growing by opening new locations, declining performance at existing stores indicates potential saturation or shifting consumer preferences.

Starbucks Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment

Despite missing EPS expectations, Starbucks stock rose 3.1% following the earnings release, reaching $95.80. This suggests that investors were reassured by the company’s top-line performance and long-term strategy.

However, the profitability shortfall, combined with stagnant same-store sales, casts doubt on short-term momentum. 

Analysts and investors alike are keeping a close eye on whether Starbucks can reinvigorate demand without relying solely on expansion.

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Conclusion

Starbucks’ Q2 2025 results reflect a business balancing between growth and margin pressure. While revenue exceeded expectations and store expansion remains strong, weaker-than-expected earnings and declining same-store sales raise questions about sustainability.

For investors, Starbucks remains a dependable brand with solid revenue streams, but caution is advised until profitability metrics show a more stable trend. Whether SBUX stock is a buy depends on risk appetite and long-term investment goals.

FAQ

How did Starbucks perform in Q2 2025?

Starbucks reported $9.46 billion in revenue, beating expectations, but missed EPS estimates with $0.50 per share.

How many Starbucks locations are there now?

As of the end of Q2 2025, Starbucks operated 41,097 locations globally.

What are Starbucks' same-store sales trends?

Same-store sales declined 2% year-over-year, continuing a pattern of modest declines.

What is the forecast for Starbucks revenue growth?

Analysts project 5.2% revenue growth over the next 12 months, consistent with past performance.

Is Starbucks stock a buy?

The answer depends on your investment strategy. While revenue growth is steady, declining margins may concern some investors.