Sabadell Bank Takeover Bid for BBVA: Details

The Spanish banking sector is facing one of its most important moments in recent years as BBVA pushes ahead with its takeover bid for Banco Sabadell.

The move has sparked debates among analysts, investors, and regulators, with predictions varying widely on how successful the first phase will be.

Acceptance rates, shareholder positions, and strategic interests are shaping the story, while both banks weigh the potential risks and opportunities.

With the final decision days approaching, the financial world is closely watching what could reshape Spain’s banking landscape.

If you are interested in crypto trading, explore Bitrue and enhance your experience. Bitrue is dedicated to providing safe, convenient, and diversified services to meet all crypto needs, including trading, investing, purchasing, staking, borrowing, and more.

Key Takeaways

1. Analysts expect BBVA to secure between 30% and 45% of Sabadell in the first phase of the bid.

2. Shareholder loyalty, tax implications, and Zurich’s opposition play a major role in acceptance rates.

3. The outcome may open the door to a second mandatory takeover if BBVA falls short of 50%.

Current Status of BBVA’s Takeover Bid

BBVA has already acquired a 10% stake in Banco Sabadell, and the first phase of its voluntary takeover bid is nearing conclusion. 

Market consensus suggests that BBVA may not achieve its goal of 50% acceptance in this stage.

Instead, analysts expect a figure closer to 30% to 45%, which could still allow BBVA to exert significant influence on Sabadell’s board and strategy.

Factors Influencing Acceptance

Several elements are affecting the bid’s progress:

• Retail Investors: Representing 41% of Sabadell shareholders, only a small portion is expected to participate in the first phase. Many are likely waiting for a potential second offer.

• Zurich Insurance: Holding 4.95%, Zurich strongly opposes the takeover, citing risks to its business alliance with Sabadell in Spain.

• Institutional Players: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with a combined 4.3%, are advising Sabadell, creating further uncertainty about their positions.

The closing date for the first phase is October 10, with settlement expected by October 17. This timing adds pressure on undecided investors, many of whom may announce their stance at the very last moment.

Read Also: Spanish Crypto Trader Faces Multi-Million Euro Tax Bill Amid Legal Uncertainty

Investor Reactions and Market Expectations

Investor behavior is at the heart of this takeover drama. Analysts in London predict that the acceptance rate will exceed 30% in the first phase, although very few expect BBVA to reach its 50% target.

The anticipation is that some funds may hold back, assuming BBVA will return with a second, possibly higher, offer.

Dividends and Shareholder Considerations

• BBVA estimates Sabadell shareholders could see dividends valued around €3.39 per share, based on recent trading levels.

• Tax implications may deter some investors, especially if the acceptance rate remains below 50%, creating uncertainties around capital gains.

• Arbitrage funds like Dimensional, which already holds a 3% stake, could tilt results by seeking short-term premiums of 7% to 10%.

This mix of cautious retail investors, strategic funds, and opportunistic arbitrage players explains why predictions remain divided.

Analysts argue that even a 35% to 40% acceptance could grant BBVA de facto control of Sabadell’s board.

Read Also: Spanish Banks Move Into Crypto Under MiCA: What Customers Should Know

Possible Outcomes and What Comes Next

The big question is whether BBVA will move to a second, mandatory takeover bid if acceptance falls short of 50%.

Market experts believe this is increasingly likely, especially if BBVA secures enough backing from major investors to justify continuing the effort.

Potential Scenarios

• Acceptance Between 30% and 40%: BBVA gains influence but not full control, paving the way for a second offer.

• Acceptance Below 30%: A weaker result that could force BBVA to rethink its strategy or increase its offer again.

• Acceptance Above 50%: Although unlikely in the first phase, this would give BBVA immediate majority control.

The position of key stakeholders, such as Mexican investor David Martínez, who controls 3.86% of Sabadell and plans to accept the offer, adds intrigue to the unfolding process.

His participation could encourage others to follow, although many still see his move as opportunistic.

What happens in the coming days will define not only the future of Sabadell but also BBVA’s role in the Spanish and European banking sector.

Read Also: Spain’s Crypto Real Estate Boom: Homes You Can Buy with Bitcoin or Ethereum

Conclusion

The BBVA takeover bid for Banco Sabadell highlights the complex mix of shareholder interests, strategic alignments, and market timing that define major banking deals.

With Zurich opposing, funds hesitating, and retail investors waiting until the last minute, the outcome remains uncertain.

Whether BBVA secures 35% or pushes closer to 50%, its strategy signals determination to expand influence in Spain’s banking market.

For investors, these developments underline the importance of staying informed and making cautious decisions.

Those seeking more efficient and safer ways to manage their crypto trading portfolios can look to platforms like Bitrue, which offer secure and user-friendly tools for navigating financial opportunities beyond traditional banking.

FAQ

What is BBVA’s goal in the takeover bid?

BBVA aims to secure majority control of Banco Sabadell to strengthen its market position and achieve synergies between the two banks.

How much has BBVA already acquired?

BBVA currently holds a 10% stake in Sabadell and hopes to increase this significantly through the takeover bid.

Why is Zurich opposing the takeover?

Zurich holds 4.95% of Sabadell and risks losing its insurance partnership if BBVA gains control, which would reduce its business in Spain.

What dividends can Sabadell shareholders expect?

BBVA has indicated a valuation of around €3.39 per share for Sabadell shareholders, based on recent BBVA stock prices.

When will the takeover bid results be announced?

The acceptance period ends on October 10, 2025, with settlement expected to begin on October 17, when shareholders who accepted will receive BBVA shares.

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.