BTC and ETH Targets Shift as Traders Turn Bearish Ahead of Jackson Hole

2025-08-19

Crypto markets have entered a cautious phase in August, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both struggling to hold recent highs.

While institutional investors continue to build long-term positions, retail traders have grown hesitant, leaving prediction markets flashing red.

The focus is now on the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to outline his stance on inflation, setting the tone for risk assets.

BTC and ETH Under Pressure as August Targets Are Reassessed

Bitcoin has dipped from recent highs, trading just above $115,000 after a pullback that saw it test $114,000 earlier in the week. Ethereum has mirrored this decline, falling over 5% in the last 24 hours to around $4,320.

These moves have forced traders to reassess August targets, with prediction markets suggesting caution rather than continuation.

Polymarket odds now show the highest probability for Bitcoin closing August below $111,000, highlighting the growing bearish tilt. For Ethereum, the most likely outcome is a finish near $4,800, but this comes with high volatility expectations and little retail follow-through.

While such numbers still place ETH comfortably above its longer-term averages, the short-term pressure is clear.

The dynamic reflects a split between retail and institutional behaviour. Retail investors, burned by previous corrections, remain reluctant to buy at elevated levels.

By contrast, institutions continue to demonstrate confidence. Strategy Inc., for example, recently added 430 BTC to its balance sheet, while VanEck reiterated its $180,000 year-end target for Bitcoin.

These opposing behaviours are shaping market conditions, keeping downside risks in play despite strong structural support at higher levels.

The result is a market defined by hesitation. Institutions may be laying the groundwork for continuation, but without retail demand to sustain momentum, BTC and ETH targets for August are under threat.

Retail Traders Lag as Institutions Maintain Confidence

Institutional confidence in Bitcoin and Ethereum remains intact, supported by ongoing inflows into spot exchange-traded funds and corporate purchases.

These large players view current prices as part of a longer cycle and continue to treat BTC and ETH as assets with structural value. For them, short-term corrections present opportunities to accumulate.

Retail traders, however, tell a different story. Participation levels have been subdued, with popular assets like XRP and DOGE failing to attract sustained buying interest due to ongoing regulatory delays around ETF approvals.

The contrast between institutional conviction and retail caution has left the market without the kind of broad support needed to push prices higher in the short run.

Ethereum has been particularly affected by this divergence. Despite strong institutional inflows, ETH has faced heavy volatility tied to validator exits and speculation around potential staking ETFs.

Over 885,000 ETH, worth around $3.8 billion, is queued for withdrawal from staking, adding concerns about forced liquidations. These developments have amplified retail traders’ reluctance to take new positions, especially after ETH slipped back under $4,400.

Bitcoin is similarly influenced by this imbalance. While large funds continue to buy, smaller investors remain hesitant, wary of chasing highs after repeated pullbacks.

This is reflected in derivatives markets, where funding rates have turned negative and option skews favour puts across maturities, signalling defensive positioning.

In effect, retail is acting as a brake on momentum. Institutional demand provides a foundation, but without retail buying pressure, rallies risk fading quickly. This gap between retail hesitation and institutional confidence has become one of the defining features of the current market.

Jackson Hole Looms Over Market Sentiment

The Jackson Hole Symposium has become the central event for traders in August. Scheduled later this week, the conference will feature remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to address inflation and interest rate policy.

Markets are bracing for his comments, as they could influence all risk assets, including crypto. Crypto traders are particularly sensitive to rate expectations because of their impact on liquidity and investor risk appetite.

While there is still a strong likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, confidence has slipped in recent days. CME FedWatch data shows expectations for a cut at 83%, down from nearly 100% a week earlier. This uncertainty has added to the cautious mood around BTC and ETH.

At the same time, broader macroeconomic concerns are feeding into sentiment. Treasury announcements around strategic reserves and continued geopolitical tensions have influenced both traditional and digital markets.

Gold, often seen as a haven, has risen as traders prepare for Powell’s speech. Stocks have also slowed, with the S&P 500 showing signs of fatigue after its summer rally.

For crypto, this creates a delicate backdrop. BTC and ETH remain supported by institutional flows, but traders are unwilling to extend risk until Powell’s comments provide clarity.

Prediction markets and options data confirm this defensive stance, with bearish bets gaining traction across maturities.

Despite these near-term challenges, underlying interest in digital assets continues to build. Search interest in crypto is at a four-year high, and legislation such as the GENIUS Act is moving forward in Washington, laying the foundation for a stronger long-term rally.

For now, however, the focus remains squarely on Jackson Hole and the message it will deliver for the months ahead.

Conclusion

Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered August under pressure, with retail traders hesitant while institutions continue to add exposure.

Prediction markets and derivatives data point to a defensive stance ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Federal Reserve policy will shape sentiment. The $111,000 zone for BTC and the $4,200–$4,400 range for ETH are critical areas to watch in the near term.

For traders navigating these conditions, platforms like Bitrue provide secure access and practical tools, making it easier to manage positions and trade responsibly during times of uncertainty.

FAQ

What is the current Bitcoin and Ethereum price trend?

Both BTC and ETH are under pressure, with BTC around $115,000 and ETH near $4,320 after recent pullbacks.

Why are August targets for BTC and ETH being reassessed?

Prediction markets and derivatives positioning suggest bearish sentiment, with retail investors showing reluctance while institutions continue to buy.

What role do retail investors play in current crypto dynamics?

Retail traders provide momentum for rallies, but their lack of participation has left markets more cautious and reliant on institutional flows.

Why is the Jackson Hole Symposium important for crypto markets?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation and interest rates could influence risk appetite and liquidity across financial markets, including crypto.

Where can I trade BTC and ETH safely?

Bitrue is a reliable platform that offers security and accessible tools for trading BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies with confidence.

Investor Caution

While the crypto hype has been exciting, remember that the crypto space can be volatile. Always conduct your research, assess your risk tolerance, and consider the long-term potential of any investment.

Bitrue Official Website:

Website: https://www.bitrue.com/

Sign Up: https://www.bitrue.com/user/register

Disclaimer: The views expressed belong exclusively to the author and do not reflect the views of this platform. This platform and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility for the accuracy or suitability of the information provided. It is for informational purposes only and not intended as financial or investment advice.

Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute financial or investment advice.

Join Bitrue for exclusive rewards