How High Can Bitcoin Go? Analyst Predicts Up To $150,000 in 2025

Bitcoin continues to capture the world’s attention as both a digital asset and a barometer for the broader cryptocurrency market. With its price recently hovering near record highs, investors and enthusiasts alike are eager to understand where BTC bitcoin could go next. Recent analysis by Constantin Kogan, shared by CryptoBasic on X, suggests that the bitcoin price could reach as high as $150,000 in 2025. 

This prediction, grounded in robust on-chain data and historical market patterns, has sparked widespread discussion among both seasoned crypto traders and newcomers. In this article, we break down Kogan’s outlook, the metrics behind his forecast, and what it could mean for the future of bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Signal: The Composite Index Explained

One of the central pillars of Kogan’s bitcoin prediction is the Bitcoin Composite Index, a tool that blends various on-chain and price-based indicators to gauge overall market sentiment. 

As of early May 2025, the Composite Index stands at 0.8, a level historically associated with the early stages of previous bull markets. When this threshold is reached and sustained, it often precedes significant upward price movements in BTC bitcoin.

Kogan’s analysis highlights that the “Running ATH Price” line within the index is now trending higher, signaling growing investor confidence. If the index continues to approach or surpass the critical 1.0 level, it could trigger a rally reminiscent of the parabolic surges seen in 2017 and 2021. 

According to Kogan, maintaining momentum above this zone supports his bullish bitcoin price target of $150,000 to $175,000 by 2025. However, if the index stalls between 0.8 and 1.0, bitcoin may consolidate in the $90,000 to $110,000 range. A drop below 0.75 could indicate a correction, but this is considered the least likely scenario based on current data.

Market Dynamics and Supply Pressure Zones

Beyond the Composite Index, other on-chain metrics provide further insight into bitcoin’s trajectory. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, for example, maps out where investors last acquired their BTC, revealing key supply pressure zones. Currently, a significant amount of bitcoin has been purchased between $93,000 and $98,000, creating a critical decision point for the market.

If bitcoin can decisively break above this range, it could flip recent supply into profit and fuel further upward momentum. Conversely, a rejection at these levels might signal a period of cooling off or even a deeper correction, as selling pressure builds among short-term holders. Despite these short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend remains positive, with bitcoin showing strong gains over the past 14 and 30 days.

Read Also: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why These Two Patterns Are Key for the Next Bull Market

Historical Trends and Broader Analyst Consensus

Kogan’s bullish outlook is not isolated. Other prominent analysts, such as TradingShot, have also projected that the bitcoin price could reach $150,000 in this cycle, citing technical analysis and historical price patterns. TradingShot notes that bitcoin’s current rally resembles previous cycles, particularly the aggressive surges of 2017 and 2021. If these trends hold, the $150,000 target is seen as “very plausible” and fits within the upper bounds of multi-year price channels.

Some models, like the stock-to-flow ratio, even suggest the potential for higher prices, with predictions of $300,000 or more under particularly bullish scenarios. However, most analysts agree that while the upside is compelling, bitcoin’s path will likely include periods of volatility and consolidation.

Key Risks and What Could Change the Outlook

While the current momentum and on-chain signals are bullish, several factors could alter bitcoin’s trajectory. A failure to maintain the Composite Index above 0.8, increased regulatory scrutiny, or a major shift in macroeconomic conditions could all dampen the rally. Additionally, the emergence of “altcoin season,” where alternative cryptocurrencies outperform bitcoin, may temporarily divert capital away from BTC bitcoin, leading to periods of stagnation or minor pullbacks.

Long-term holders, who acquired their coins at much lower prices, continue to exert a stabilizing influence by reducing available supply. However, if new supply pressure emerges at higher price levels, it could introduce additional volatility.

Conclusion

The bitcoin price remains at a pivotal juncture, with strong on-chain metrics and historical patterns supporting a bullish outlook. Analyst Constantin Kogan’s prediction of $150,000 by 2025 is grounded in data and reflects a broader consensus among market experts. 

While short-term corrections are possible, the underlying momentum suggests that BTC bitcoin could be poised for another significant rally. As always, investors should approach these predictions with caution and conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions.

FAQ

What is the Bitcoin Composite Index?
The Bitcoin Composite Index is a metric that combines various on-chain and price indicators to assess market sentiment and potential price direction.

Why does Kogan predict $150,000 for bitcoin in 2025?
Kogan’s forecast is based on the Composite Index reaching levels historically associated with the start of major bull markets, as well as strong investor confidence and positive momentum.

Are other analysts predicting similar bitcoin price targets?
Yes. Analysts like TradingShot and others have also projected bitcoin price targets of $150,000 or higher, citing technical analysis and historical trends.

What could cause bitcoin to fall short of these predictions?
Potential risks include a drop in the Composite Index below key thresholds, regulatory changes, macroeconomic shocks, or a shift in market focus to alternative cryptocurrencies.

Is now a good time to invest in bitcoin?
While the outlook is bullish, all investments carry risk. It is essential to perform your own research and consider your risk tolerance before investing.